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🇺🇸 US job openings edged down to 7.1 million in August from a revised 7.3 million in July, with the openings rate unchanged at 4.3%. BLS characterized openings as little changed over the month.
July data were revised higher, with job openings raised +64,000 to 7.3 million, hires +92,000 to 5.1 million and total separations +56,000 to 5.1 million. July quits were revised +33,000 and layoffs and discharges +36,000.
🇪🇸 Spain’s CPI rose +0.3% MoM and accelerated to +4.9% YoY in September 2026 from +4.3% YoY in August, while core inflation increased to +3.1% YoY, reflecting stronger headline price pressures from fuel and tourism-related prices.
Core CPI inflation, excluding unprocessed food and energy products, increased to +3.1% YoY from +2.9% in August, a +0.2 ppt acceleration that indicates underlying inflation also strengthened during the month.
🇦🇺 The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate +25bps to 4.60%, its fourth increase since the beginning of 2026, as upside inflation risks materialized. The Board cited higher global energy prices from the Middle East conflict, rising technology-related goods prices, persistent domestic capacity pressures and recent Australian inflation readings that were stronger than expected.
The RBA said inflation remains too high and higher fuel costs are beginning to pass through to other goods and services. While tighter financial conditions are slowing the economy and labor market conditions have eased, the Board said further rate increases remain possible if needed to prevent high inflation from becoming embedded.
rba.gov.au/media-releases/20…
✈️ Global jet fuel prices fell -4.9% WoW to $185.43/bbl in the week ending September 25, reversing part of the prior week's +7.4% surge. Prices nevertheless remained +18.1% MoM and +106.0% YoY.
⛽️ US gasoline prices edged down -1.6 cents WoW to $4.42/gal, but remain 35.9 cents higher MoM and $1.34 higher YoY. Diesel prices fell -4.1 cents WoW to $6.449/gal, while regional gasoline moves diverged sharply amid refinery developments.
EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell -1.7 million bbl to 206.0 million, leaving stocks about 6% below their five-year seasonal average, while implied demand fell -390 kb/d to 8.653 mb/d.
🇨🇳 China's move up the manufacturing value chain is reshaping global competition, with BlackRock arguing that the country is increasingly competing on quality and advanced technology rather than scale alone.
State support and increasingly domestic supply chains have helped China gain share in EVs, advanced machinery and AI, while its global export share has remained elevated even as its import share has declined from its 2021 peak.
🇮🇳 India's industrial production growth accelerated to +8.0% YoY in August from +6.7% YoY in July. Manufacturing output increased +9.0% YoY, electricity and gas supply +12.3% YoY, and water, sewerage and waste management +6.3% YoY, while mining and quarrying fell -5.6% YoY.
Capital goods output rose +16.9% YoY, intermediate goods +13.7% YoY and consumer durables +11.1% YoY, while primary goods increased +3.5% YoY and consumer non-durables +2.1% YoY.
Within manufacturing, 18 of 23 industry groups expanded, led by electrical equipment at +30.9% YoY and other transport equipment at +25.3% YoY.
MTS Insights retweeted
📉 GROWTH OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE FOR THE REST OF 2026
Firms expect activity to decline in the three months to December, extending a period of negative predictions that have persisted since late 2024.
🇨🇳 China's industrial profits rose +4.2% YoY in August, while cumulative profits at industrial enterprises increased +15.7% YoY in January-August. Manufacturing profits rose +17.4% YTD, while mining profits increased +35.1% YTD.
Profit growth varied sharply by industry. Computer, communications and electronics manufacturing profits surged +109.9% YoY YTD, while non-ferrous metals rose +82.9% YTD and chemicals +51.0% YTD.
🇯🇵 Japan's Services Producer Price Index rose +3.7% YoY in August, accelerating from +3.6% in July and marking the strongest increase since April. Services prices increased +0.3% MoM, following +0.4% in July.
Excluding international transportation, services producer prices rose +3.2% YoY, unchanged from July, while prices increased +0.2% MoM. The widening gap with the headline index indicates international transportation was an important contributor to the August acceleration.
🇺🇸 US consumer sentiment fell -7.0% MoM to 48.1 in September, revised up from the preliminary 47.8 but still the lowest in four months and -12.7% YoY. Current conditions slipped -1.9% MoM to 50.9, while expectations fell more sharply by -10.1% to 46.3.
Inflation expectations increased alongside weaker sentiment, with 1-year expectations rising to 4.6% from 4.0% in August (unchanged from the preliminary reading), the highest since June, while long-run expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%.
Consumers reported growing concerns about high prices, fuel costs and the economic impact of renewed trade disputes.
🇺🇸 US durable goods orders were virtually unchanged MoM at $338.6 billion in August, following a revised +0.9% MoM increase in July. Transportation equipment fell -0.6% MoM and drove the headline weakness, while orders excluding transportation rose +0.3% MoM.
Core capital goods orders were notably stronger, with nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rising +1.6% MoM, following +0.6% MoM in July, while shipments increased +0.6% MoM.
📅 The week wraps up with a relatively light macro calendar, with consumer sentiment, manufacturing data, and auto demand providing the main updates.
• Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders kicks off the major data at 8:30 AM ET, providing a fresh look at factory demand, shipments, and inventory conditions.
• At 10:00 AM, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for September will update the preliminary readings on household confidence and, importantly, short- and long-term inflation expectations.
• The Kansas City Fed Services Survey follows at 11:00 AM, while the NY Fed Staff Nowcast arrives at 11:45 AM.
🇪🇺 Euro area M3 money supply growth edged up to +3.5% YoY in August from +3.4% YoY in July, while narrower M1 growth slowed to +2.9% YoY from +3.1% YoY.
Private-sector lending growth accelerated to +4.3% YoY from +4.1% YoY, although the underlying sector picture was mixed. Household loan growth held at +3.1% YoY, while lending to non-financial corporations slowed to +4.2% YoY from +4.4% YoY.
🇪🇸 Spain’s GDP increased +0.7% QoQ and +2.6% YoY in Q2 2026, confirming the preliminary estimate, with quarterly growth accelerating slightly as stronger domestic demand offset a larger drag from external demand.
🇬🇧 UK consumer confidence edged up 1 pt to -13 in September, marking a third consecutive monthly increase for the first time since summer 2024. Four of the five headline components improved, led by assessments of the economy over the past year, which rose 4 pts to -36.
Past personal finances improved 3 pts to -3, while expectations for personal finances and the broader economy each rose 1 pt to +5 and -22, respectively. The Major Purchase Index was the only component to weaken, falling 1 pt to -8, while the separate Savings Index increased 5 pts.
