Morten M. Møller retweeted
During the pandemic, Peloton could not keep up with demand for its bikes. At one point it was spending $100 million just on air freight to get bikes to customers faster, and it committed $400 million to build its own factory.
At the height of demand, management was forced to make many suboptimal decisions to satisfy customers. Today the customers are gone, but the suboptimal decisions (including the debt) remain.
The same will happen in the AI space. Today you have insatiable demand. Nobody knows how long it will last.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
San Francisco has a unique feature that no other city in the world has. And if you want to build an outlier career, this matters a lot.
And I'm not talking about the concentration of tech companies.
San Francisco is the one place in the world that you'll be taken seriously no matter who you are.
It has an unusually low barrier to being taken seriously.
In most places, if you're 20 years old, fresh out of school, and building something, people are naturally skeptical.
In SF, that person in flip-flops and a hoodie might be building the next billion-dollar AI company.
And that changes the status quo of how people treat each other.
There's a culture of radical open-mindedness toward ambition. People are more willing to take the meeting, hear the idea, make the introduction, or give someone young and unproven a shot.
You see this everywhere. Most of the power players in SF are easily accessible – they do office hours, coffee shops, speak at events, etc.
So your age, title, pedigree, and resume matter a little less. And what you're building matters a little more.
I've traveled to many startup ecosystems, and I haven't seen this norm as strongly anywhere else.
If you're young, ambitious, or trying to do something that sounds a little crazy, that's one of San Francisco's biggest advantages.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
Sigmund Freud in his letter to Carl Jung in 1907:
“One day, in retrospect, the years of struggle will strike you as the most beautiful.”
Morten M. Møller retweeted
GOODBYE uncalibrated Apple battery degradation. 🔋
Most iPhone users buy a new device when their battery health drops below 80%.
A simple recalibration cycle and 3 specific settings changes can restore your daily runtime.
Here is the 4-step diagnostic protocol to revive your lithium-ion lifespan:
Morten M. Møller retweeted
Imagine if in 1943 FDR had decided that the US would stop helping Britain and instead would side with the Third Reich. That's a bit like what President Trump is now doing by cozying up to Russia as it tries to destroy Ukraine. Utterly shameful. A humiliating moment for the US.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
BREAKING: Ukraine has carried out the world’s first medical evacuation of a human via a drone from the battlefield the 30th mechanised brigade of Ukraine managed to save their injured comrade from a minefield.
Just absolutely insane.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
I'm only going to say this once.
If you're under 40, this selloff is a generational opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.
$NVDA - $218 now. $325 stock. Data center revenue up 117% to $89B last quarter. Guiding $108B next.
$AMZN - $255 now. $325 stock. AWS reaccelerated to 37% growth, its fastest in 18 quarters.
$CRWV - $66 now. $140 stock. Revenue up 112% to $2.6B last quarter. $104B revenue backlog.
$AVGO - $340 now. $525 stock. AI chip revenue up 221% to $16.7B last quarter. Guiding $21.7B next.
$MU - $911 now. $1,550 stock. Revenue up 379% to $54.2B last quarter. Guiding $61.5B next.
$VST - $154 now. $215 stock. EBITDA up 31% to $1.77B. Committed up to $1B to KKR's AI infrastructure platform with Nvidia.
$IREN - $29 now. $75 stock. Microsoft handed them a $9.7B AI cloud contract. Power already secured.
$CIFR - $9.50 now. $30 stock. $5.5B 15-year lease with AWS. First site started paying rent two months early.
$CRDO - $178 now. $280 stock. Revenue up 115% to $479M last quarter. Guiding up to $535M next.
$ONDS - $6 now. $19 stock. Record $83.8M quarter, up about 13x year over year.
Nobody building real wealth did it buying all-time highs.
They bought weeks like this one and held on.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
All the far-Right influencers tweeting “France has fallen” were awful quiet on Jan 6th…
Morten M. Møller retweeted
This thread offers a quite logical prediction of our economic future post-Trump.
Worth a read.
5/5 Now, I love America. I'm writing this because I want ordinary Americans to understand the consequences of these disastrous decisions.
The damage being done to America's reputation won't be reversed by the results of the next elections. It will take decades to rebuild that trust.
And the economic consequences, while not immediate, will go much further than a potential 2 cents per gallon decrease in diesel prices.
And if you think the world doesn't notice, or that everything I'm describing is just hypothetical, let me give you two examples of what is already happening.
These decisions were made even before the latest Starshield restrictions, which only make the problem much worse.
Airbus, one of the world's largest aircraft manufacturers, has already signed a contract to move 70 critical applications from Amazon AWS to French cloud provider Scaleway, with plans that could eventually include 900 applications.
Airbus specifically mentioned concerns about foreign laws and potential "kill switches" when choosing its new provider.
In the Netherlands, one of the country's largest telecom companies, KPN, partnered with German Schwarz Digits to build European cloud infrastructure using STACKIT, hosted in Dutch data centers and controlled by European companies.
The Dutch government has also approved STACKIT as an alternative cloud provider for its agencies.
These aren't some people complaining about Trump on Twitter.
These are major corporations signing real contracts, investing real money and building infrastructure to reduce their dependence on American technology.
And that's the part Americans need to understand.
For decades the USA was a reliable partner. Republicans and Democrats disagreed about plenty of things, but America's foreign policy was built around long-term strategic interests and institutions that survived changes in presidents.
Countries trusted the USA enough to build entire industries around its technology.
Now a foreign government has to consider whether some American president might wake up tomorrow wanting cheaper gas, believing another promise from Putin, getting angry with its elected leadership, or trying to get a better deal for his friends.
And suddenly technology that was supposed to make that country more productive becomes a potential political weapon against it.
The USA spent decades making the world dependent on its technology because the world trusted America.
Now American companies will be paying the price for political decisions they didn't make, long after the politicians responsible are gone.
And no election in the USA will magically restore that trust.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
When you lose your appetite for food you lose your appetite for life.
People on GLP-1 have this absence of gusto in them that makes them poor companions. They are almost as unpleasant to be with as longevity-health optimizers.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
🚫 Las pastas dentales que usas DELATAN tu clase social:
🥉 Quiero y no puedo
· Colgate 🇺🇸 (el clásico de los pobres)
· Aquafresh 🇬🇧 (tres colores, cero lujo)
· Signal 🇫🇷 (sonrisa de supermercado)
· Oral-B 🇺🇸 (dentista de clase media)
🥈 Nuevo rico del cuidado dental ↓↓
Morten M. Møller retweeted
Wow. Back in 2017, Volkswagen’s CEO absolutely ridiculed Elon Musk and Tesla with a breathtaking level of arrogance, compounded by that typically German air of smug superiority. Here's a translation:
"Well, I suppose I have to say a few words about Tesla. With all due respect, there are companies out there that are world champions at making grand announcements. I won't name names.
There are companies that struggle to sell 80,000 cars a year. Volkswagen sold 11 million that year. Then there are companies like Volkswagen that generate €13 or €14 billion in annual profits. And if I'm correctly informed, Tesla is burning through hundreds of millions of euros every quarter, while firing employees whenever it feels like it.
As for any sense of social responsibility, I'm not sure where that comes into the picture.
So I would ask everyone to get a sense of perspective here and stop comparing apples with oranges."
Nine years later, Volkswagen is heading for the scrapheap of history, while Elon is making cars fly.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
I’ve explained for months (below) why I don’t buy the copper supercycle.
China is structurally too weak to sustain it, while Europe’s Green Deal will collide with a simple reality: nobody can afford it.
Today, Merz said: “We reached an agreement bw Germany and France on future policy toward the automotive industry. With this, the combustion engine ban is history.”
It’s only the beginning. Book it: the “Green Deal” — never green, always an exercise in energy illiteracy — is heading for the scrapheap. Good thing
China is experiencing a balance sheet recession on a scale the world has never seen before. Economist Richard Koo coined the term to explain Japan’s stagnation in the 1990s.
At its core, it describes a collective shift in economic behaviour: households and companies prioritise repairing their balance sheets over spending, borrowing and investing, even at near-zero interest rates.
The result is chronically weak aggregate demand, against which conventional monetary policy loses much of its effectiveness. It is not merely a financial problem. It is a profound shift in economic psychology. Deeply structural and profoundly scary.
It is also the key reason I don’t buy the copper “supercycle” narrative. China accounts for roughly 50% of global copper consumption, much of it historically tied to construction and infrastructure. Nothing can compensate for a structural collapse in that demand. Not even close.
Nor can the West afford the much-advertised “green transition” at the scale and speed promised. By now, much of it has become a face-saving exercise for bureaucrats in Brussels, increasingly divorced from economic and fiscal reality.
It won’t survive the rebellion in government bond markets, already visible in French sovereign debt. In that sense, many European governments face their own balance sheet constraints, although these are not balance sheet recessions in Koo’s original sense.
When the AI mania finally slows, copper, among others, will nosedive. For now, the scramble to front-run US tariffs and the speculative demand it generates keep the mirage alive. It won’t last forever.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
In 2010, Polish workers cleaned the houses of British professionals. Today, Poland's GDP per capita sits above $43,000 in purchasing power parity terms, level with Spain and closing fast on France. That reversal took roughly one generation. This was deliberate policy, not luck.
Poland ran a flat tax on business income, kept labor markets comparatively flexible, and spent the 1990s dismantling the Soviet pricing apparatus faster than almost any neighbor. Capital read those signals immediately. Volkswagen, Samsung, and hundreds of smaller manufacturers moved production east. Warsaw became a financial hub, not a branch office.
The EU structural funds helped, obviously, pouring +-160 billion euros into Polish infrastructure between 2004 and 2020. Funds alone don't explain the difference. Ukraine received aid too. Poland built what mattered around the money: enforceable contracts, a functioning court system, and a bureaucracy that didn't simply steal the paperwork.
Respect property, enforce contracts, keep inflation credible, and capital flows toward you. Poland did roughly that for thirty years while Germany and France were busy building regulations that made hiring someone feel like adopting them legally.
The housekeepers became engineers, then managers, then founders. Warsaw startup valuations crossed 50 billion euros in aggregate by 2024. Polish engineers now earn salaries that make relocating to London feel irrational rather than mandatory.
Wealth is produced where producers are left alone to produce it. Poland left them alone just enough.
Another 10 years of this and people from the UK will be cleaning the houses of professionals in Poland.
Morten M. Møller retweeted
Steve, e morto miliardario a 56 anni, senza poter sconfiggere il cancro.
Le sue ultime parole danno molto su cui riflettere:
"Alla fine, la ricchezza è solo una parte della vita a cui mi sono abituato.
Sdraiato in questo letto e guardando indietro, capisco che tutta la fama e i soldi che ho avuto non valgono nulla davanti alla morte.
Abbiate cura di voi stessi e rispettate gli altri.
Con gli anni uno diventa più saggio e realizza le cose semplici:
un orologio da 30 dollari e uno da 30.000 segna la stessa ora.
Un portafoglio economico o un portafoglio molto costoso tengono i soldi.
Un'auto da 10.000 o 100.000 dollari ti porta comunque dal punto A al punto B.
E anche se la tua casa è di 40-400 metri quadrati, la solitudine è uguale.
La vera felicità non sta nelle cose.
Se un aereo cade, non importa se eri in classe economica o in prima classe, il risultato sarà lo stesso.
Quindi la vera felicità è nelle persone, negli amici e nelle persone care con cui condividi la vita. ”
Cinque principi che vale la pena ricordare:
Non educare i tuoi figli ad essere ricchi.
Insegna loro ad essere felici.
Quando cresceranno, capiranno il valore — non solo il prezzo — delle cose.
Vedi il cibo come una medicina, o un giorno la medicina sarà il tuo cibo.
Chi ti ama davvero non se ne va, anche se ha cento motivi.
Ne troverà sempre uno con cui stare con te.
C'è una grande differenza tra essere "persona" ed essere "umano".
Se vuoi andare veloce, vai da solo.
Ma se vuoi andare lontano, vai accompagnato.
Steve Jobs
Morten M. Møller retweeted
Of course the flying Tesla Roadster is a gimmick but that sort of misses the point, the tech flex behind it isn't.
Tesla's bulk business is about advanced technology from EV to self drive, but decided to create the most ridiculous manual drive supercar. Supercars are a gimmick,almost by definition, based on how wild can you make them.
The gimmick that can make the car literally fly, briefly, can make it corner like no other supercar and accelerate, literally like a dragster on a test track. It's got nothing to do with flying continuously, but having a car that will outperform every Lambo, Ferrari or McLaren with technology that they cannot replicate because it requires experience from space launches and computation that they don't have now nor will in future.
So Porsche, Bugatti, Aston Martin just became legacy prestige brands, like Rolex, Richard Mille or Patek Philippe. These cars celebrate the bygone age and the baroque, physical complexity of the internal combustion engine just as mechanical watches do for non digital, complex time-keeping mechanisms. But hey won't be faster anymore than a mechanical watch keeps better time than a Casio. They are now, de facto, mobile jewelry and no longer supercars with superlative performance. And this affects their ability to market the bulk business of mainstream European internal combustion engine cars. It's the end of an era of industrial era manufacturing.
I hate to be the one to burst the Tesla bubble today, but the spectacular “flight” we witnessed at the Roadster reveal needs a little context. The car is carrying around 250kg of compressed air, plus the weight of the tanks, valves and thrusters needed to contain and release it.
Based on the published figures, that gives it roughly 1.5–2 seconds of maximum thrust before the system needs to be refilled.
In short, it's a gimmick.
