Economics | Tweets are my own
Papua New Guinea
Joined July 2018
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"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see"
~Winston Churchill
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
“In a country devoid of polls, and where other approaches don’t seem to work, the relationship between candidate numbers and election outcomes is something,” say @terencewoodnz and @MLaveil.
Blog: devpolicy.org/candidate-numb…
#PNGpolitics #PNGelections #Pacific
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
“The closure of the regional processing centre saw the end of the economic boom in Manus,” says @MLaveil. “While it is unclear how the Manus administration utilised the revenue boost it received, it is unlikely this windfall was saved or invested.”
devpolicy.org/the-manus-asyl…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
As PNG marks 50 years of independence, the PNG Canberra Students Association are holding the PNG 50 for 50 Symposium at @ANUCrawford on 11 September.
Program: devpolicy.org/PNG50.../PNG50…
Register to attend in-person (limited spaces) or online: events.devpolicy.org/2025091…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
"New wards and LLGs have required new rolls, new ballot papers and the coordination of more individual elections, making the job of the PNG Electoral Commission, which is conducting this election, more difficult and creating delays," says @MLaveil.
devpolicy.org/shining-a-ligh…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
"This [research] suggests that the national government responds more adequately to the needs of urban local level governments, which is problematic given 90% of Papua New Guinea’s LLGs are rural," says @MLaveil. #PNG #governance
devpolicy.org/shining-a-ligh…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
Here's another recent critique of close elections RDDs.
It's unclear whether there is actually good evidence against potentially fatal precise manipulation around the cutoff in these designs.
The McCrary (2008) DCdensity and Cattaneo, Jansson, & Ma (2018; 2020) rddensity approaches are widely used as tests for precise manipulation.
But virtually everyone interprets statistically insignificant results of these as evidence of no manipulation.
@FitzgeraldJack_ has a new working paper that argues that we should actually be using equivalence testing on this test, similar to Hartman's (2021) argument about using equivalence testing in tests of covariate balance.
Fitzgerald develops a 3-step procedure which tests for evidence that precise manipulation is practically equal to zero.
He shows that precise manipulation at the cutoff is potentially a serious problem.
In his sample of recent RDD research (which is made up of 75% close election RDDs), he finds that >44% of studies can’t be significantly bounded even beneath a 50% upward jump (or equivalently, a 33.3% downward jump).
This is a problem!
Since we're talking about the validity of close elections RDDs today, I thought I'd drop a few recent articles about issues that arise in this space so that folks can have them all in one place.
#1. Hartman (2021) shows that most tests of covariate balance around close election cutoffs fail to rule out large imbalances. Remember to equivalence test when testing for covariate balance!
#2 Marshall (2022) shows that it is far from clear what effects you are estimating with close election RDD estimates of candidate characteristics. There are compound treatments at these cutoffs!
#3 Stommes et al. (2023) shows that RDDs in political science, many of which are close election RDDs, are "underpowered to detect all but large effects." As with all low power tests, we should be wary not only about large standard errors, but also type M/S errors!
#4 de la Cuest and Imai (2016) discuss the limited external validity of close election RDDs. Generalize beyond close elections with care!
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
This week, on the Intel, we asked "50 years of independence in PNG: What do we need to think about for the future of the Australia-PNG Partnership?"
👉 ANU's @natashaturia
👉ANU's @MLaveil
👉@LowyInstitute's @ONobetau
Explore the responses: devintelligencelab.com/intel…
Sign up to get the Intel straight to your inbox 👉 ow.ly/rYB250SavNo
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
New blog, new paper: Australians have much to learn about Pacific migration
devpolicy.org/australians-ha…
Yes, and very good advice for aid workers
Excellent analysis of patronage and lessons for aid in Papua New Guinea today from Mark Moran on @devpolicy devpolicy.org/working-with-p…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
My @LowyInstitute colleagues have analysed the global implications of Trump 2.0. As I write in the intro, same man but very different world to the one in which he was last in power, with hot wars in Europe and Middle East. Hoping @WarintheFuture is right!
interactives.lowyinstitute.o…
😊
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Maholopa Laveil retweeted
Interested in political economy of local elections? We find that Indonesia's local democratic transition had a mostly negative impact on key public spending and service outcomes, especially in districts where clientelistic practices were pronounced.
authors.elsevier.com/sd/arti…
Maholopa Laveil retweeted
Australia spends over $600 mil in aid to PNG annually - but one PNG minister has warned of wastage, duplication and funds being “withheld in Canberra”.
tinyurl.com/46wx7u8z
Thought Linkin Park lost their way a bit going mainstream in their last album, but Emily Armstrong is great. No one can replace Chester, but they're getting back to their rock identity with this new song.
youtu.be/7F5MKaJMxDc?si=J8hk…
I support a depreciating Kina, but it looks like I won't be eating imported grapes in Port Moresby anytime soon. K122 a kilo is 😑
Wow, a guy with the "mana" the Kiwis were looking for. @miqurlkabuni
Story: Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government agree to appoint former New Zealand governor-general Sir Jerry Mateparae as moderator as they try to resolve an impasse over the province's political future. Announcement expected soon
abc.net.au/news/2024-09-09/p…
