@MLBallForecast

Probabilities, published in advance. Graded in public. MLB · NFL · NBA · MLBarometer. Statistics-only. Not picks.

 Barnsdall, OK
machinelearningball.com
Joined January 2026
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⚙️ SYSTEM TRANSPARENCY REPORT — 2026-10-22 Season: 1312-1152 (53.2%) Brier Score: 0.2495 Trend: STABLE Radical Transparency. Every forecast. Every result. Every day. 📖 Read: xitter.cf/MLBallForecast/status/… #MLBall #BaseballAnalytics
Machine Learning Ball
@MLBallForecastApr 21

Why We Model Baseball Like a Call Center

Article · @MLBallForecast
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📈 WIN RATE TREND Current: 53.2% | Season: 1312W-1152L Red line = coin flip (50%) Amber line = home team baseline (~53.5%) #MLBall #BaseballAnalytics
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📊 BRIER SCORE TREND Current Brier: 0.2495 Measures probability calibration. Lower = more accurate confidence. Radical Transparency means showing calibration, not just wins. #MLBall #BaseballAnalytics
NBA forecasts, Wed Oct 21: 11 games. Win probabilities, margin and total projections, and player projections for every game, issued 7:31 AM CT from 100,000 simulated games per matchup. Full slate and player boards: machinelearningball.com/nba/ Game forecasts in the replies. #NBATwitter #NBA
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Wed Oct 21 graded: 11 games. The side with the higher win probability won 2 of 11. Margin inside the 80% range in 6 of 11, total in 10 of 11. Win-probability Brier 0.165. Running record on the Performance tab: machinelearningball.com/nba/ #NBATwitter #NBA
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SAC at LAC, 9:30 PM CT Win probability: LAC 64%, SAC 36% Margin: LAC by 5 80% range: SAC by 12 to LAC by 22 Total: 227 80% range: 204 to 250 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Brandon Ingram: 32 / 21 / 5 / 3 Keegan Murray: 26 / 10 / 5 / 1 Zach LaVine: 25 / 14 / 2 / 2 #NBATwitter #NBA #LightTheBeam #ClipperNation
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Final: LAC 121, SAC 96. Forecast of record (Confirmed): LAC 65%, margin LAC by 6, total 226. Result: margin LAC by 25, total 217. Total inside the 80% range, margin outside. #NBATwitter #NBA #LightTheBeam #ClipperNation
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GS at LAL, 9:00 PM CT Win probability: LAL 68%, GS 32% Margin: LAL by 7 80% range: GS by 10 to LAL by 24 Total: 237 80% range: 213 to 260 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Luka Doncic: 33 / 28 / 7 / 7 Austin Reaves: 31 / 18 / 4 / 5 Jimmy Butler III: 27 / 15 / 5 / 4 #NBATwitter #NBA #DubNation #LakeShow
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Final: LAL 127, GS 105. Forecast of record (Confirmed): LAL 67%, margin LAL by 6, total 234. Result: margin LAL by 22, total 232. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #DubNation #LakeShow
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UTAH at MEM, 7:00 PM CT Win probability: MEM 53%, UTAH 47% Margin: MEM by 1 80% range: UTAH by 15 to MEM by 18 Total: 243 80% range: 219 to 266 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Lauri Markkanen: 31 / 20 / 6 / 2 Keyonte George: 29 / 18 / 3 / 5 Jaren Jackson Jr.: 26 / 14 / 5 / 2 #NBATwitter #NBA #TakeNote #GrindCity
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Final: MEM 123, UTAH 103. Forecast of record (Confirmed): MEM 53%, margin MEM by 1, total 241. Result: margin MEM by 20, total 226. Total inside the 80% range, margin outside. #NBATwitter #NBA #TakeNote #GrindCity
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PHX at POR, 9:00 PM CT Win probability: POR 57%, PHX 43% Margin: POR by 3 80% range: PHX by 14 to POR by 20 Total: 234 80% range: 210 to 257 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Devin Booker: 31 / 22 / 4 / 5 Toumani Camara: 31 / 12 / 5 / 2 Deni Avdija: 31 / 20 / 6 / 5 #NBATwitter #NBA #SunsUp #RipCity
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Final: POR 124, PHX 83. Forecast of record (Confirmed): POR 60%, margin POR by 4, total 234. Result: margin POR by 41, total 207. Margin and total both outside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #SunsUp #RipCity
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IND at NO, 7:00 PM CT Win probability: NO 43%, IND 57% Margin: IND by 3 80% range: IND by 20 to NO by 14 Total: 240 80% range: 217 to 263 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Trey Murphy III: 31 / 17 / 5 / 3 Pascal Siakam: 30 / 22 / 6 / 3 Kelly Oubre Jr.: 27 / 11 / 4 / 1 #NBATwitter #NBA #YesCers #Pelicans
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Final: NO 120, IND 123. Forecast of record (Confirmed): NO 42%, margin IND by 3, total 239. Result: margin IND by 3, total 243. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #YesCers #Pelicans
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DAL at HOU, 7:30 PM CT Win probability: HOU 77%, DAL 23% Margin: HOU by 10 80% range: DAL by 7 to HOU by 27 Total: 231 80% range: 207 to 254 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Kevin Durant: 32 / 23 / 5 / 4 Cooper Flagg: 32 / 20 / 6 / 4 Jabari Smith Jr.: 32 / 14 / 6 / 2 #NBATwitter #NBA #MFFL #Liftoff
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Final: HOU 128, DAL 110. Forecast of record (Confirmed): HOU 75%, margin HOU by 9, total 231. Result: margin HOU by 18, total 238. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #MFFL #Liftoff
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CHA at BKN, 6:30 PM CT Win probability: BKN 50%, CHA 50% Margin: CHA by 1 80% range: CHA by 17 to BKN by 16 Total: 221 80% range: 197 to 244 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Julius Randle: 30 / 17 / 6 / 4 Michael Porter Jr.: 30 / 20 / 6 / 3 Kon Knueppel: 29 / 15 / 5 / 3 #NBATwitter #NBA #HiveMentality #NetsWorld
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Final: BKN 103, CHA 110. Forecast of record (Confirmed): BKN 45%, margin CHA by 2, total 220. Result: margin CHA by 7, total 213. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #HiveMentality #NetsWorld
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MIL at WSH, 6:00 PM CT Win probability: WSH 60%, MIL 40% Margin: WSH by 4 80% range: MIL by 13 to WSH by 21 Total: 239 80% range: 216 to 263 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Ryan Rollins: 29 / 16 / 4 / 5 Anthony Davis: 26 / 15 / 8 / 2 Tyler Herro: 25 / 15 / 4 / 3 #NBATwitter #NBA #FearTheDeer #ForTheDistrict
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Final: WSH 128, MIL 116. Forecast of record (Confirmed): WSH 63%, margin WSH by 5, total 239. Result: margin WSH by 12, total 244. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #FearTheDeer #ForTheDistrict
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ATL at ORL, 6:00 PM CT Win probability: ORL 56%, ATL 44% Margin: ORL by 3 80% range: ATL by 14 to ORL by 19 Total: 235 80% range: 211 to 258 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Paolo Banchero: 32 / 20 / 7 / 4 Jalen Johnson: 32 / 19 / 9 / 6 Desmond Bane: 31 / 17 / 4 / 3 #NBATwitter #NBA #TrueToAtlanta #MakeItMagic
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Final: ORL 125, ATL 132. Forecast of record (Confirmed): ORL 55%, margin ORL by 2, total 234. Result: margin ATL by 7, total 257. Margin and total both inside the 80% range. #NBATwitter #NBA #TrueToAtlanta #MakeItMagic
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MIN at MIA, 6:30 PM CT Win probability: MIA 51%, MIN 49% Margin: MIA by 1 80% range: MIN by 16 to MIA by 18 Total: 241 80% range: 218 to 265 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Anthony Edwards: 32 / 23 / 4 / 3 Bam Adebayo: 31 / 18 / 9 / 3 Jaden McDaniels: 29 / 13 / 4 / 2 #NBATwitter #NBA #BringTheNice #HeatNation
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Final: MIA 106, MIN 131. Forecast of record (Confirmed): MIA 53%, margin MIA by 1, total 241. Result: margin MIN by 25, total 237. Total inside the 80% range, margin outside. #NBATwitter #NBA #BringTheNice #HeatNation
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CHI at TOR, 6:30 PM CT Win probability: TOR 76%, CHI 24% Margin: TOR by 10 80% range: CHI by 7 to TOR by 27 Total: 238 80% range: 214 to 261 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Scottie Barnes: 31 / 16 / 7 / 6 Kawhi Leonard: 30 / 26 / 6 / 3 Immanuel Quickley: 30 / 14 / 4 / 5 #NBATwitter #NBA #SeeRed #WeTheNorth
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Final: TOR 135, CHI 92. Forecast of record (Confirmed): TOR 79%, margin TOR by 11, total 238. Result: margin TOR by 43, total 227. Total inside the 80% range, margin outside. #NBATwitter #NBA #SeeRed #WeTheNorth
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SAC at LAC: Confirmed · injury report, 9:00 PM CT Win probability: LAC 62%, SAC 38% Margin: LAC by 5 80% range: SAC by 12 to LAC by 21 Total: 226 80% range: 202 to 249 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Keegan Murray: 29 / 11 / 5 / 1 Zach LaVine: 27 / 16 / 2 / 2 Darius Garland: 27 / 20 / 2 / 5 Re-priced on the final injury report; the morning forecast stays on the site. #NBATwitter #NBA #LightTheBeam #ClipperNation
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PHX at POR: Confirmed · starters posted, 8:36 PM CT Win probability: POR 60%, PHX 40% Margin: POR by 4 80% range: PHX by 13 to POR by 21 Total: 234 80% range: 211 to 257 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Devin Booker: 32 / 22 / 4 / 5 Toumani Camara: 32 / 13 / 5 / 2 Deni Avdija: 32 / 22 / 6 / 6 Re-priced on the posted fives; the morning forecast stays on the site. #NBATwitter #NBA #SunsUp #RipCity
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GS at LAL: Confirmed · injury report, 8:30 PM CT Win probability: LAL 67%, GS 33% Margin: LAL by 6 80% range: GS by 10 to LAL by 23 Total: 234 80% range: 211 to 257 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Luka Doncic: 33 / 29 / 7 / 7 Austin Reaves: 31 / 18 / 4 / 5 Stephen Curry: 29 / 21 / 3 / 4 Re-priced on the final injury report; the morning forecast stays on the site. #NBATwitter #NBA #DubNation #LakeShow
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DAL at HOU: Confirmed · starters posted, 7:06 PM CT Win probability: HOU 75%, DAL 25% Margin: HOU by 9 80% range: DAL by 7 to HOU by 26 Total: 231 80% range: 208 to 254 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) P.J. Washington: 35 / 14 / 7 / 2 Amen Thompson: 35 / 17 / 7 / 5 Cooper Flagg: 34 / 21 / 7 / 4 Re-priced on the posted fives; the morning forecast stays on the site. #NBATwitter #NBA #MFFL #Liftoff
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IND at NO: Confirmed · starters posted, 6:34 PM CT Win probability: NO 42%, IND 58% Margin: IND by 3 80% range: IND by 20 to NO by 14 Total: 239 80% range: 216 to 262 Players to watch (MIN / PTS / REB / AST) Andrew Nembhard: 33 / 17 / 3 / 8 Pascal Siakam: 31 / 22 / 6 / 3 Trey Murphy III: 30 / 16 / 5 / 3 Re-priced on the posted fives; the morning forecast stays on the site. #NBATwitter #NBA #YesCers #Pelicans
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