One of the best starts to an NFL season I’ve ever seen 🐐
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Sunday Morning Woody ✅😂
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NFL CHEAT SHEET - WEEK 6 🏈
A quick look at how defenses are performing vs. each position this season.
Keep these matchups in mind for Sunday 👇
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J.K. Dobbins o49.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel -114)
Drop a ❤️ if you're tailing!
📊: 2025 w/ Sean Payton as play-caller
Dobbins hasn't covered this line yet this year but does have 49 yards in a game and his line has closed at 58.5, 50.5, 60.5 over the last three weeks.
Sean Payton is taking over play-calling duties for Denver and said, "we know we have to improve our balance in running the football." This is fresh off a game they lost where Bo threw the ball 42 times. I do think we see a much more balanced approach against a Chargers team who allow the 4th most RB ATT/G and 3rd lowest PROE. Dobbins AVG 77.2 YDS per game in 2025 w/ Payton calling plays and went over this line in 9/10 games.
Dobbins is the 1st-2nd down back for Denver and averages 63.8% of the carries for this RB-room. Since Coleman went to IR, Dobbins has 28/40 carries for this RB-room, which comes out to 70% of the carries. If he continues to see that 65%-70% split, he should record ~17 ATT. 6/8 w/ 12-17 ATT since joining DEN and 49+ yards in 7/8 - AVG 72.8 YDS.
J.K. ranks #9 among 39 RBs w/ 30+ ATT this season in man/gap ATT% - also ranked #9 overall in 2025 in man/gap concept ATT%. LAC allow the 13th highest EPA/A vs. man/gap runs (top-7 run defense vs. zone concept runs). They also allow #7 highest YPC, #4 RYOE, #4 in YBC/ATT vs. man/gap concept runs.
RBs vs. LAC:
- Emmanuel Wilson: 21 ATT for 81 yards
- James Cook: 24 ATT for 154 yards
- Ashton Jeanty: 21 ATT for 48 yards
- Jeremiyah Love: 11 ATT for 41 yards (Allgeier 17 ATT for 61 yards)
Cook and Love/Allgeier also average a 50%+ man/gap ATT% and ran for 154 (Cook) and 102 (Love/Allgeier) vs. this LAC team.
I’ll be sharing my NFL research & favorite props all season long, to help you bet smarter 📈
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