Gut feelings and threats won't solve this. After nearly six months of conflict with Iran in one form or another, the Trump administration still appears to underestimate the nature of the regime it is confronting. U.S. policy should begin with a basic working assumption: Iran is unlikely to capitulate simply because military pressure increases. The key question is what Washington expects to achieve. Does it believe Tehran will abandon its missile program, give up its right to enrich uranium, or relinquish what it sees as its strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz? There is little evidence to suggest the regime is prepared to make concessions on issues it considers fundamental to the Islamic Revolution. On the contrary, Tehran appears convinced that, over time, Washington's political resolve will weaken first. If that is the underlying assumption behind the current strategy, disappointment is almost inevitable. Iran is not going to plead for an agreement or surrender its core strategic assets. Instead, the likely consequences are continued upward pressure on global oil prices and growing frustration in Washington as expectations collide with reality. Retaliation is not a strategy, and a bombing campaign without a clearly defined political objective is unlikely to produce the desired outcome. If the goal is to force Iran back to the negotiating table in a significantly weaker position, that objective appears increasingly unrealistic. Policymakers should be clear-eyed about the costs. A strategy centered on coercing Iran into submission risks imposing substantial economic and strategic costs on the United States and its allies without achieving its intended political objectives. Iran is far from invulnerable. It has significant military, economic, and social vulnerabilities that can be exploited. But one reality remains unavoidable: confronting Iran requires time, sustained political commitment, a willingness to absorb casualties, major economic costs, and enormous military resources. As long as the administration is unwilling to bear those costs, extending the current campaign, even if it produces tactical successes, is unlikely to bring Iran to the point of strategic defeat. If anything, a prolonged campaign without the resources or political will necessary to achieve decisive results risks strengthening Tehran's belief that it can simply outlast Washington. #iran