Risk @ Novig | NYC
New York, NY
Joined July 2024
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Lume retweeted
The Novig Sports Trading API is now live! 🏈
Zero Maker Fees + In-Play Maker Credits
Get started here: docs.novig.com/
Follow this account to stay up to date with all the API improvements!
Lume retweeted
American odds are no longer available on Novig.
While percentages may not be native for sports fans today, moving away from sportsbook-style odds is another step toward building a product that looks like what it is: a financial market.
We are committed to making the transition seamless for our members. If you're used to American odds, our team built a tool to help make the switch: tools.novig.com/odds-calcula…
Lume retweeted
Prediction markets entrant Novig posts more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week cnbc.com/2026/08/18/novig-po…
👀🚀
For the first time, @Novig has flipped @RotheraMarkets in trailing 7-day prediction market volume (August 10–16), less than two weeks after going live.
The volume race outside the biggest operators is getting much more interesting.
Data via @AldrinResearch
197 days ago, I replied to @Nostroah’s thread on breaking into prediction markets, hoping to find my way in.
I’m excited to share I’ve accepted a role @Novig.
This industry is about to make traditional sportsbooks look like a thing of the past, and getting to combine my love for sports and prediction markets into an actual career feels surreal.
Grateful for everyone who showed me the way in
Lume retweeted
It appears that @Novig received CFTC approval for their DCM license this morning.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
An amazing stream last night hosted by @PredMTrader and @0xTyrael.
They continue to grow and bless the community with free alpha.
I shared my arbitrage-style strategy for the “Who will Trump mention during State of the Union” market with them:
YES: Jared / Kushner
NO: Witkoff
Thesis:
Their names are synonymously linked within the Trump administration, and the likelihood of Trump mentioning one without the other is very slim.
Additional Angle:
Trump can still say “Steve and Jared,” which would make both bets hit.
Here’s their take on it, as well as some valuable advice from PMT
Great News:
The Kalshi market for Logan Paul’s auction of his 1997 Pokémon PSA 10 “Pikachu Illustrator” trading card did nearly $2.5M in volume.
Bad News:
The auction is for a 1998 Pokémon PSA 10 “Pikachu Illustrator.”
Obviously Kalshi will rule this Yes, but it’s just another glaring example of the contract mistakes being made on the regular.
If we solely relied upon rulebooks, all of these would rule “No.”
RULES DEBATE: The Importance of 1 Second
Tonight, during the 2026 NFL Pro Bowl, play-by-play announcer Scott Van Pelt said the phrase “he caught wind.”
Most would instantly assume this means YES on Wind/Windy, but a closer look shows the word was uttered exactly as the clock started in the third quarter.
Why this matters: The Kalshi rulebook clearly states “commentary during halftime will not count.”
The market closed at ~70% in favor of Yes.
What do you think?
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER KALSHI RULES DEBATE:
Users bet on who will “Perform” at the 68th Grammys.
Trevor Noah got Bad Bunny to join in singing “DtMF,” and the band followed.
Bettors debate what counts as a “Performance.”
Why “No”:
Kalshi Rules:
- Canceled/cut <30s = no
- Only shown in audience = no
- “Performs” = Is either a scheduled performer OR guest appearance during another artist’s set
Despite taking 50 days to grow my $100 to $500, I’ve now increased it to $800 in just 10 days!
I’ve started sizing up slightly, trading $10–$30 positions.
GOAL: $1,000
Busy week ahead!!!
