Lou Conlon (@LouC17) header
Lou Conlon (@LouC17) profile picture

Chicago area retired lawyer. 17th century buff. @louc17.bsky.social

Joined September 2012
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لا أعرف، وربما تقولون عني مجنوناً، ولكن باعتقادي أن زيارة الوفد السعودي إلى إيران تحت مظلة «حلف مكة» هي زيارة فائقة الأهمية، وقد تكون مؤشراً إلى أن السعودية ودول الخليج اتخذت قراراً بالتسليم عملياً لإيران، والذهاب نحو تأسيس منظومة أمنية جديدة في الشرق الأوسط. اسمعوني للنهاية. لا أقول إن هذا المسعى سينجح، ولا أقول إن نجاحه مضمون، ولكنني أجد صعوبة بالغة في تفسير هذه الزيارة بطريقة أخرى. السعودية أسست «حلف مكة» ليكون مظلة أمنية بديلة عن المظلة الأمنية الأمريكية، ولكن هذا الحلف، بصراحة، لم يقدم للسعودية شيئاً، تماماً كما لم تقدم لها المظلة الأمنية الأمريكية الحماية التي كانت تنتظرها. والآن، مع اقتراب الحرب من لحظاتها الحاسمة، تجد السعودية نفسها أمام كارثة وجودية. ففي حال دخلت الولايات المتحدة في حرب شاملة مع إيران، وقررت تدمير منشآت الطاقة الإيرانية، فإن إيران لن تنتهي كدولة، ولكن دول الخليج قد تفنى من الوجود. لن يكون هناك ماء، ولن يكون هناك نفط، ولن يكون هناك غاز. هذه الدول تعتمد في بقائها على بنية تحتية شديدة الحساسية، ولا تستطيع تحمل تدمير منشآتها الحيوية للطاقة والمياه. والضربة الإيرانية لهذه المنشآت قد تجعل استمرار الحياة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية فيها أمراً شبه مستحيل. ولذلك، ربما وصلت القيادة السعودية إلى قناعة بسيطة: لماذا نتحمل كل هذه المخاطر؟ ولماذا نضع وجود دولنا ومستقبل شعوبنا تحت رحمة قرار أمريكي أو إسرائيلي بالحرب على إيران؟ لماذا لا نذهب مباشرة إلى طهران، ونتفاوض مع الإيرانيين على تأسيس تحالف أو إطار أمني جديد في الشرق الأوسط، يضمن أمن دول الخليج، ويمنحها ضمانات إيرانية باستثنائها من أي رد عسكري في حال أقدمت الولايات المتحدة أو إسرائيل على استهداف منشآت الطاقة الإيرانية؟ قولوا عني مجنوناً، ولكنني أستشعر أن شيئاً كبيراً يجري خلف الأبواب المغلقة. ولو كانت هذه الزيارة مجرد تحرك دبلوماسي عادي، لما أرسلت السعودية خالد بن سلمان، وزير الدفاع السعودي وشقيق محمد بن سلمان. نحن نتحدث عن أحد أعلى المسؤولين في هرم السلطة السعودية، ومن أقرب الشخصيات إلى ولي العهد، وعن رجل يمتلك الصلاحيات والمكانة السياسية التي تجعله قادراً على التفاوض بشأن تفاهمات أمنية وعسكرية بالغة الحساسية. السعودية لم ترسل مسؤولاً عادياً إلى طهران، بل أرسلت أحد أهم رجال الحكم فيها. وهذه وحدها خطوة بالغة الأهمية، ولا يمكن التعامل معها وكأنها مجرد زيارة بروتوكولية. وربما نكون بالفعل أمام بداية تسوية تاريخية كبرى بين السعودية وإيران، تتجاوز مجرد وقف الحرب أو منع التصعيد، وتمتد إلى إعادة تشكيل المنظومة الأمنية في الشرق الأوسط بأكمله. وفي سبيل الوصول إلى هذه التسوية، أعتقد أن السعودية مستعدة لتقديم تنازلات هائلة للإيرانيين، سواء في الملف اليمني أو في ملفات الخليج الأخرى. ولكن التنازل الأكبر والأهم قد يكون قبول السعودية بما تطالب به إيران منذ سنوات، وهو إنشاء منظومة أمنية إقليمية تضمن أمن إيران ودول المنطقة، وتستبعد الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل من ترتيباتها الأمنية. أي إن السعودية ربما تكون مستعدة للانتقال من الاعتماد على المظلة الأمنية الأمريكية إلى التفاهم المباشر مع إيران، والاعتراف عملياً بأن أمن الخليج لا يمكن ضمانه من خلال مواجهة إيران، بل من خلال التوصل إلى اتفاق أمني شامل معها. أعرف أن ما أقوله قد يبدو جنونياً، وأعرف أن هذا السيناريو يبدو غريباً بالنظر إلى تاريخ العلاقات السعودية الإيرانية، وحجم العداء والتنافس بين الدولتين طوال العقود الماضية. ولكنني أعود إلى السؤال نفسه: لماذا يذهب خالد بن سلمان إلى طهران في هذه اللحظة تحديداً؟ ولماذا تتحرك السعودية بهذا المستوى من التمثيل السياسي والعسكري بينما تقف المنطقة على حافة حرب قد تدمر منشآت الطاقة في الخليج؟ من الصعب جداً تفسير ما يحدث باعتباره مجرد زيارة دبلوماسية عادية. ربما نكون أمام واحدة من أكبر التحولات الاستراتيجية في تاريخ الشرق الأوسط الحديث. وربما تكون السعودية قد أدركت أخيراً أن الولايات المتحدة قادرة على إشعال الحرب مع إيران، ولكنها عاجزة عن حماية دول الخليج من عواقب هذه الحرب. ولهذا ربما قررت الرياض أن تتفاوض مع طهران على أمنها ووجودها ومستقبلها، بدلاً من أن تترك مصيرها معلقاً بقرار الحرب والسلام في واشنطن وتل أبيب. مرة أخرى، لا أقول إن التسوية ستنجح، ولا إن الإيرانيين سيقبلون بها، ولكنني أجد صعوبة شديدة في تفسير هذا التحرك السعودي الكبير بطريقة أخرى.
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Lou Conlon retweeted
**Exclusive report by Yaron Avraham:** An unprecedented confrontation between the IDF Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister over the past 24 hours. **The issue at the center: Iran.** IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir is concerned that Netanyahu and the political leadership are steering Israel toward a potential miscalculation with Iran just ahead of the elections, which could lead to a dramatic and immediate escalation. **This report has been cleared for publication by the military censor.**
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Israel’s Channel 12 has now authorized the publication of a report stating that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir received a direct order from Netanyahu to launch a military campaign against Iran—but refused to carry it out! This is an extremely dangerous development, revealing a sharp rift between Israel’s military and security establishment and its political leadership. Perhaps for the first time in the country’s history, the disagreement has escalated to the point where the Chief of Staff has effectively mutinied against the Prime Minister’s direct orders. It is possible that Zamir and the military leadership have concluded that Netanyahu intends to launch a war against Iran to serve his own electoral interests, rather than for any genuine military or security reasons. This deals a massive blow to Netanyahu; it could create an unprecedented fracture within the institutions of the Israeli state—and might even signal the prospect of a military coup against Netanyahu himself.
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💥#BREAKING: @YaronAvraham reports that PM Netanyahu & IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Eyal Zamir are in an unprecedented confrontation regarding Iran. Zamir fears that on election eve Netanyahu is driving towards a scenario of immediate, dramatic escalation. *Authorized by IDF censor.*
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Lou Conlon retweeted
“History will not forget the role Zamir played in the last few days,” a senior security source told Channel 12’s Yaron Avraham, as an unprecedented confrontation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir came to a head. According to the report, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon. Rather than carry it out, he asked for an in-depth discussion first, along with legal authorization signed by the political leadership. “This is an action that could lead to a lightning confrontation with Iran at a sensitive and dramatic moment, and create a miscalculation,” a senior security official told the channel. Two sources described a discussion between the prime minister and the chief of staff on Sunday as very tense. Sources familiar with the details said the military fears an attempt “to exploit the Iranian issue for political momentum.” That is how many will read the story: Zamir as Vasili Arkhipov, the Soviet officer refusing to sign off on firing a nuclear torpedo. The reality is closer to an officer demanding final confirmation before turning the final key. The dispute does not appear to be over a yes-or-no decision on striking Iran. It is over the moves short of a strike, and how Tehran might read them. Israel is already taking actions that could easily spiral into war. Last week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling planes flew across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to the edge of Iran, some 1,300 kilometers from home, and turned back. Israel notified Washington in advance and called the flight a “power projection” exercise meant to deter Iran from attacking before the election. But it could easily have been mistaken for something else. Even American officials were suspicious, telling Axios that Israel may have hoped Iranian air defenses would open fire and hand it a pretext to strike. According to a Saturday report in the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Baghdad suspects that airstrikes last week hit two sites storing air-defense systems, apparently optically guided anti-aircraft missiles. Iran had transferred the missiles to pro-Iranian militias in eastern Iraq as a forward line of defense against Israeli jets and drones in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran. According to ynet, Netanyahu wanted to continue such operations, in part to help the Saudis and the Kurds in northern Iraq, both of whom are under attack from the militias. Zamir reportedly believes Israel has done enough to lay the groundwork, and fears that further strikes, and the publicity around them, could push Iran to come to its proxies’ aid. “There is no confrontation,” Netanyahu told Channel 14. “Someone is trying to blur the fact that the chief of staff himself said Iran is trying to harm the elections.” Yet the prime minister has done little to lower the temperature with the Islamic Republic. On Wednesday, at an officers’ graduation ceremony, he declared that the only way to remove the Iranian threat was to topple the regime, and called it “my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security services.” On Monday morning, hours after the Channel 12 report, he posted a simulation of an atomic bomb falling on Tel Aviv. Zamir, for his part, warned Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, that an attack in the coming weeks could force Israel to postpone the election. Last Thursday, Channel 13 quoted him telling a private meeting: “We do not see any indications of a need to strike Iran before the election.” After the election? That’s another matter. newsletter.amitsegal.net/p/i…
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I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good. I know. I know. I think about it on the tram. We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle. It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species. Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate. 287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself. We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it. Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name. A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog. And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters. People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all. So who did we give it to? An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us. She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown. The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him. Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept. It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall. But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for. That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it. We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was. He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him. Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
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Russia lost data centers - MAGA lost its best and brightest.
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Most people don't realize its impact yet, but Zelensky did massive damage to the GOP by brilliantly, strategically, and effectively taking out Russia's major bot farm.
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