V~N² - Trend is a function of time
Joined August 2015
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RT @i_am_jackis: "Happy" anniversary to 10/10th 2025.
Let's never forget this day.
It is the day when the crypto overlords scammed the bu…
LongLace retweeted
The US 10 Year Yield have broken to a new 20 year highs, ended a 40 year Bear market in Yields / Bull market in Bonds, and has confirmed a new cycle.
The last time this has happened & was at the same level was in the 60s & SPX basically went for a 14/16 year bear market when measured against the CPI.
And it wasn't until 1992 when it properly broke to new ATHs.
That is 26 years!
The data speaks clearly.
Rising 10Y Yield coupled with higher inflation puts a bearish pressure onto equities.
The historical average gain for SPX is about 10% PA, including bear markets.
The past 17 years offered a staggering 15% PA growth. That needs to be compensated at some point.
Extrapolating the same timing with the 70s would mean that SPX goes into a bearmarket until 2043 against USCPI.
Using the timing from dot-com & after puts us a bit closer to 2035.
How high do you think the 10Y goes this time? And for how long? And are you prepared for it?
LongLace retweeted
$BTC
BTC dominance is likely in a similar phase as in 2019 which is pre bull phase.
We probably see one final spike of BTC dominance where BTC massively outperforms everything.
This will be the final ingredient that unlocks real altseason.
LongLace retweeted
35 years into this game
when I look back, most of my work and decisions went nowhere
I owe my dream life to a handful of asymmetric bets:
- asking out the French exchange student in high school
- learning to code in 2009
- dropping out of uni to pursue my startup
- going all-in Bitcoin in March 2020
those four decisions shaped most of my life
I missed so many opportunities.
some that were served up on a silver platter.
but that's the beautiful thing about asymmetric bets - you only need one to completely change your trajectory
so how often are you actually looking for them?
not the default path.
not the safest options.
the ones with limited downside and massive upside
they're often hiding behind exaggerated downside
you think they're riskier than they are
you fear the judgement of pursuing them, or failing to succeed
nobody actually cares though
its your life. take swings.
the guy who strikes out is still closer to hitting a home run than the heckler in the bleachers
time speeds up after 35 years
it's made me more ruthless about where I allocate my time and capital.
forced me into a barbell strategy for life
I'm either squeezing the most I can out of this pre-ASI moment - real world maxxing somewhere beautiful with lovely people- or I'm allocating time/capital to the most asymmetric bets I can find.
zero mediocre middle
LongLace retweeted
To my long time silver friends, why Silver is more likely heading to $46 before turning bullish again.
Silver blow-off moves take a lot of time to retrace and rebuild a base. And often the last weekly cycle from the blowoff phase has to be retraced, in this case to $46.
From a trend perspective, this remains an intermediate time frame retracement from the January blow-off move. The arrows show the corresponding gold Cycle highs/low, which are in decline. And the next weekly cycle low is not due until the end of 2026.
From past experience, Silver in a bull market offers one of the best opportunities to post significant portfolio gains. It's because when it goes into a parabolic advance, it's generally just one relentless and straight move up, allowing for good positions to sit tight in. But those parabolic moves are short-lived (6 to 12 months) and then it takes a long time for another such environment to build.
I feel strongly that Silver will go through another such environment in the near future, but know that it's always a process.
LongLace retweeted
Analogs speak loud
There is a strong history among commodities that parabolic advances, once violated, produce 80% declines. That would be Gold to $1,120.
Don't think that will happen, but a 50% decline brings price back to $2,800 or so
LongLace retweeted
This is where the 30-Yr U.S. Bond came from
The down cycle is OVER
The trend is higher
Seriously, would you want to lock in U.S. govt debt for 30-Yrs at 5%???????
U.S. Bonds back to 7.5% please ↗️↗️↗️
LongLace retweeted
On the 30-Yr, 6.2% is next, then 7.7%
If the 30-year reaches 7.5% I will move 50%-plus of my net worth into bonds with 10-20% into Silver and Gold as an insurance policy
LongLace retweeted
It is not necessary to be a certified cult member to be an interested owner of a crypto $XRP
The charts alone have always been enough reason for us to make a bet
There is a difference between being open minded and having a hole in the dead
LongLace retweeted
With so many investors wanting to buy Silver in mid $50s, perhaps sub 50 is a good target for a short side trade
There would be a lot of longs puking if a 4 gets posted $SI_F
LongLace retweeted
DXY is approaching the crucial range highs at 102 yet again. A range we've been in for the past 540 days
The main driver are the constantly rising US yields which is becoming a huge problem, likely to not stop any time soon.
A historic intervention by the FED & BoJ stopped it from going higher in July but it is now immediately back there. Will we see another one?
A flip of 102 would be a similar situation to a flip of 95 back in November 2021 which has caused SPX to roll-over for a year into a bear market with many stocks dropping -75%
Crypto has done well lately and remains in a bullish momentum, it has been in for the past three months, which is important to respect.
But just as well it is important to keep in mind BTC has historically not done well with rising Yields & DXY.
If that were to be the case, the current upside could very well turn into a complacency shoulder similar to the late 2021 after the mid cycle -55% correction.
Until it does so however, the bullish momentum should go on.
LongLace retweeted
$Silver : My expectations are that we eventually roll over and back test this trendline break. After a parabolic blow off top, you often lose 70-80% on the crash, and that would make sense in this case. I'll be looking for a buyable low possibly in Nov after the next Oct Fed mtg. $GDX $SILJ
LongLace retweeted
Such an odd market. There are big nuggets for both perma bulls and bears to latch onto, a perfect environment for fitting the market to your bias. (AI, Capex, Growth, Rates, Oil, Breadth)
I like to approach markets like this with the fundamental belief that we simply cannot know what lies ahead, more so now than ever. Embrace the unknown and trust the trend for as long as it holds, but be quick to hunker down the moment it’s lost.
And that might mean getting trapped occasionally. That’s the price of refusing to predict (and blindly hold to) what comes next.