@LongLongfld
Account based inAustralia
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Search for permissionless and censorship-resistant technology. Own your assets (money, data & more) for self-sovereignty. Separate money from states.
OnChain 12/7
Joined September 2016
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5tanley retweeted
👏 MORagents 0.2.1 are Live!
📈 World's first integration for DCA + Gasless USDC sends on @base!
✨ Enhanced UI for a smoother experience.
🤖 Agent widgets added & more!
Take your Smart Agents experience to the next level!
👉 github.com/MorpheusAIs/morag…
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5tanley retweeted
Options are this cycles Perpetuals in terms of growth
Understand this
Think about this
Prepare for this
So bullish onchain options I’m getting palpitations. I think they’re the biggest missing unlock in the onchain asset stack.
We’re building spot liquidity, borrow markets and distribution around the same assets. The constraint running through all three is who’s willing to warehouse the risk, at what price, and for how long.
LPs already carry inventory risk. Holders want yield. Traders want convexity. Options create a market between those needs: holders can sell upside, traders can buy exposure or protection, and dealers can hedge inventory.
That can change the economics of supporting an asset onchain. More risk capacity can support better execution; better execution makes larger positions and lending markets more viable; distribution can package those capabilities into products people actually want to hold.
Attracting deposits into an options yield product is only half the equation, though. That yield comes from traders paying for exposure or hedgers paying for protection. The market becomes sustainable when those buyers keep coming back because the product is useful. Get that right and options can support durable demand across the entire market around an asset.
5tanley retweeted
Derive's options volume is up 4.5x this year and the fees increades 70%.
Volume is compounding and fee capture is not, because Derive cut its options fees in July. Taker fees went to 0.0075% from 0.03–0.04%, and top makers now get paid rebates to quote tighter. The venue is buying order-book depth and giving up take rate to do it.
Volume
→ Options notional went from $735M in January to a $3.3B monthly run rate in September.
→ August alone did $1.92B, the best full month on record before September.
Fees
→ Protocol fees went from $324K in January to about $562K in September, up only 1.7x.
→ March is still the best fee month of 2026 at $709K, six months on.
ALT Monthly options notional volume beside monthly protocol fees, Jan.-Sep. 2026.
5tanley retweeted
Kool Krypto's @koolkrypto223 appearance on @counterpartytv is really an options trader making the case that onchain options are about to have their growth spurt, with @DeriveXYZ as the purest way to own it.
@koolkrypto223 explains how he mined $BTC in 2010-14, came back through DeFi, only started trading options seriously around the turn of this year, and now runs a fund with one partner. That context matters: almost every thesis below is also a position he holds.
Derive (DRV)
→ He bought at around a $50M FDV, arguing options needed a mature perps market to hedge against and that market now exists.
→ He values $DRV on growth rather than current revenue. His view is that onchain options could grow 5–10x next year while perps grow maybe 2x.
→ His upside case is a re-rating to "the ETH mainnet derivatives venue," valued closer to Lighter, which he calls roughly a 10x. He gives no price target.
Options vs perps
→ He sees them as complements. Puts can insure a perp long, collars protect spot, and deep OTM calls express views that would get liquidated as leveraged perps.
→ The main advantage is being path-independent: a scary wick doesn't wipe you out.
→ He thinks theta is overrated as a fear. It only really bites in the final week, and he compares it to paying perp funding.
His trades
→ $ETH $2,000/$2,400 call spreads: made about $1.5M buying cheap summer volatility.
→ $ETH $5,000/$7,000 call spread: risks $1M to make $47M, a bet that ETH either re-rates as the tokenization layer or stays a low-revenue tech stock.
→ Long $AERO / short $UNI: Uniswap's 16–25% fee take is ripe for compression, and he thinks UNI is overbid.
→ Short Solana: he blames the Foundation's kingmaking and says $SOL is losing perps, RWAs and memes to Hyperliquid and Robinhood Chain.
→ $ZEC: neutral, since pure momentum means no floor and no ceiling.
Hyperliquid and Kinetiq
→ He made about $28M on HYPE and still holds a lot.
→ Kinetiq is a big position. His view is that HyperEVM has failed and Kinetiq's L2 will build the ecosystem Hyperliquid's team won't.
Macro
→ He expects a possible local top within weeks but no new lows. He's very bullish on a 6–12 month view as the overhangs (wars, rates, CLARITY) unwind.
full interview with @koolkrypto223
1:31 the $DRV bullcase
3:46 Derive can still 10x
8:32 why perps guys need options
11:43 the $1.5M ETH call spread
21:13 long AERO short UNI pair trade
23:49 the ETH to $7K bullcase
27:20 Solana is the short leg
30:31 Zcash has no ceiling or floor
35:57 $28M on the $HYPE airdrop
39:35 local top in two weeks ?
5tanley retweeted
Voting is now open on the governance proposal DIP: Launch Derive V3.
Community members are encouraged to review and participate: snapshot.box/#/s:derivexyz.e…
5tanley retweeted
good bit from Nick Forster @nickforster on why deribit still does twenty times the options volume of everything onchain combined.
it's not custody and it's not fees. you can't launch an options venue with one contract, you need the whole board live at once, 500 to 1000 instruments across strikes and expiries. and the people selling the vol are institutions who won't move venues for a rebate. spreads on options are wide enough that incentives just don't work the way they do on perps.
which is roughly why derive has 93% of onchain options premium and still only about 4% of deribit's notional.
wrote about what that means for the business and the token here:
5tanley retweeted
full interview with @koolkrypto223
1:31 the $DRV bullcase
3:46 Derive can still 10x
8:32 why perps guys need options
11:43 the $1.5M ETH call spread
21:13 long AERO short UNI pair trade
23:49 the ETH to $7K bullcase
27:20 Solana is the short leg
30:31 Zcash has no ceiling or floor
35:57 $28M on the $HYPE airdrop
39:35 local top in two weeks ?
5tanley retweeted
Would you put your ETH into a @Uniswap LP with a range from $4700 to $7000 for 185 days to earn 3.95% APR upfront?
What if I told you combined with buying calls on @DeriveXYZ this becomes a single-sided staking vault for ethereum:native using @Saffron to pay the premium for your calls?
LP loses ETH over time as ETH climbs above $4700 but the calls bought with Saffron premium cover losses
This is a staking vault that pays more and more as ETH goes up, even outside the top side of your range
This is similar to a call spread but denominated in ETH it becomes a staking vault
You could do the same denominated in dollars if you buy puts, but if your thesis is bullish ETH, this is maybe the *best* way to express that thesis with *no ETH drawdown*
tl;dr use your future yield (which would be earned half in depreciating dollars) to buy calls now
𐁉 Saffron
Lesson to learn from here for all projects!
10X when you decide to move to #Ethereum mainnet
Some big news, Trueo will be deploying to Ethereum!
The rationale for this decision is outlined in the article below, but here’s the TLDR:
The combination of low execution costs on Ethereum, it’s unparalleled network effects and liquidity, and it’s long term positioning make it the most attractive place for us to build.
Trueo’s priorities are to grow liquidity, reduce trust assumptions for the protocol, increase the App’s adoption, and build for the future.
We believe Ethereum mainnet is the best platform in the world to support that vision and to develop a long term brand.
Eth’s neutral and predictable roadmap reduces external execution risk for our App, its global distribution as a platform gives us unbounded integration potential, and its ethos is aligned with that of ours.
Ironically though, despite Ethereum’s diverse DeFi ecosystem, the prediction market landscape is less crowded than other chains.
This presents an opportunity for Trueo to establish a presence in the largest onchain economy in the world.
For Trueo users on Base, this new development will not impact or disrupt the App.
The TRUE token will migrate to mainnet, but the migration will be open ended. Users will be able to migrate at their own pace.
Users can still create markets that expire in 2026, and all existing markets will be supported until their respective expiries.
But for new market ideas that need to expire in 2027, we ask users to wait until our Ethereum instance is live to create them.
The full details of what the migration entails for users and token holders can be found in the article.
Long live Trueo. Long Live Ethereum ✌️
5tanley retweeted
🚨 LATEST: Vitalik Buterin welcomed a new decentralized prediction market contender to Ethereum L1 as Trueo migrates from Base to mainnet.
He called it ethical and not "corposlop."
5tanley retweeted
ZEC vs Zama= btc vs eth，一个走的是货币层，一个走的是应用层。
前段时间zcash因为其隐私特性成为热门隐私币之一。zama也做隐私，不过它走的是完全不同的路子：它搞的是隐私层。
也就是，Zama不是独立的隐私L1区块链，而是可以叠加在不同L1/L2上的隐私层，为应用提供隐私能力。
Zama的这条路是从DeFi开始试验的，这也是最现实的路子。
今年6月份，Zama跟Morpho/Steakhouse合作推出隐私USDC收益平台，当时只有一个金库/一位策展人/一种资产。
看起来Zama这条路基本上走出来了。今天看到消息说，它拓展到16个金库/5位策展人（Steakhouse、Armitage by Wintermute、Flowdesk、RockawayX、Bitwise），隐私资产也多了cWBTC/cTGBP等资产的隐私版。此外，还上线了Zama Swap协议。
这种在基础设施上推出的应用层隐私，是机构比较喜欢的玩法：在目前以太坊L1/或L2等基础设施上，只在应用入口叠加隐私。
这样一来，机构在玩DeFi时候，可以实现隐身，金额/时间都只有自己知道，无须担心对手/机器人/跟单玩家看见。
Zama的隐私目前有两种模式：一种是混合型金库，允许存款人在现有已经上线的金库中存入隐私代币（cUSDC/cUSDT等），持仓不会在公开记录中出现。
还有一种是，独享型金库，这是纯机密金库，没有普通存款入口，目前包括了隐私wbtc收益金库，这对于wBTC持有人来说，可以获得隐私好处。
5tanley retweeted
Glad to see that Ethereum L1 will have a new strong prediction market contender that is dedicated to decentralization, and being ethical and not corposlop, and to actually trying to do interesting and meaningful things with this class of economic primitive.
firefly.social/post/x/210212…
Onchain options and onchain exchange are building blocks for DeFi financial engineering.
Composability with the broader DeFi ecosystem
Onchain options are the largest remaining whitespace in crypto derivatives.
Most crypto options activity still takes place on centralized venues. Although onchain premium volume recently hit a monthly high, total notional over the past 30 days was still just 4.3% of Deribit’s. Attracting sustained retail flow is the sector’s next hurdle.
Derive currently accounts for roughly 95% of onchain options premium volume. V3 builds on that position by making the same liquidity available across more markets and products.
The existing Derive Chain will be replaced by a zkVM-based system that settles on Ethereum. Its new risk architecture should make it easier to list markets with different risk profiles while portfolio cross-margining improves capital efficiency for traders.
Native vaults could turn those markets into products users access through a single deposit. A covered-call vault could generate income by selling part of a tokenized asset’s upside while creating a more predictable source of flow for market makers.
Consumer apps let users select an asset and express a directional view while Derive handles the options execution underneath. This allows builders to focus on distribution without having to bootstrap a new liquidity venue.
The success of v3 depends on whether these products can attract sustained flow beyond Derive’s existing user base and grow the onchain options market around its infrastructure.
Guess huge EFT inflow today and tmrw
A massive trade of 18,140x ETH 2850/3000/3100 butterflies just hit the tape on Derive, expiring this Friday Sep 24
Pays ~$270k usd in premiums to win $2.43m (!!) if $ETH pins $3,000 on Friday's expiry.
Ok, it takes over prediction market for crypto from now on
A massive trade of 18,140x ETH 2850/3000/3100 butterflies just hit the tape on Derive, expiring this Friday Sep 24
Pays ~$270k usd in premiums to win $2.43m (!!) if $ETH pins $3,000 on Friday's expiry.
5tanley retweeted
I'm reasonably confident that I'm not even thinking big enough for how much on chain options will grow through EOY 2027.
And I'm thinking in the trillions 😂
I do think on chain options will gain market share vs Deribit much faster than on chain perps have gained on Binance.
For reference, Hyperliquid and Lighter are combining for about 10% of Binance, OKX, and Bybit perp volume. @DeriveXYZ is already doing 5-8% of Deribit volume.
I think Hyperliquid and Lighter can easily get up to 30%+ of perps in 2027, but I think on chain options share (Derive, but also potentially Lighter, Paradex, HL if they're live) gets north of 50% vs Deribit.
2027 will be the year that DEXs>CEXs. Binance, Coinbase, Deribit are bloated, complacent, and asleep at the wheel. Zero innovation, garbage UI/UX. Billions more in equity value will flow to DEX tokens like $HYPE, $LIT, and $DRV from here.
5tanley retweeted
After some long discussions with my quant, we come to the conclusion that base:0x9d0e8f5b25384c7310cb8c6ae32c8fbeb645d083 at $0.39 is ethereum:0xc011a73ee8576fb46f5e1c5751ca3b9fe0af2a6f on June 1, 2020.
@DeriveXYZ is a once per cycle event 💎
Not a vibe. The sequence matches.
@synthetix ICO’d, dumped ~95%, sat ignored, then DeFi Summer hit and it went $0.80 → $28.77 in 258 days.
base:0x9d0e8f5b25384c7310cb8c6ae32c8fbeb645d083 already did the first half of that tape:
• TGE Jan 2025 ~$0.18
• Apr 2025 washout $0.0122 (−93%)
• 17 months later, ~32x off the low
That puts today at the start of SNX’s DeFi Summer leg, not the end of it. Copy the SNX clock onto today’s date:
21 Sep 2026 → $0.39
20 Oct → $0.96
20 Nov → $1.91
21 Dec → $3.58 (the Summer high)
20 Feb 2027 → $1.47 (yes, a −59% flush still “on path”)
6 Jun 2027 → $14.03
$14 is not a two-month target. It is 8 months and 16 days on the 2020–21 map.
Christmas analog is ~$3.60.
The $4 → $14 bit was two weeks of 2021 melt-up.
Why this isn’t just chart porn:
- Derive already has ~95% of onchain options premium.
- Onchain options are still only ~4% of Deribit.
- Hyperliquid proved what happens when a venue actually takes CEX flow.
- Options have not had that moment yet.
-Token is still a ~$290M coin on ~$8M annualized fees. That is not a “priced as the venue” multiple. HYPE is priced as the venue. DRV is still priced as a forgotten DeFi ticker.
The part I don’t think is in the number:
-funds and desks are still offside,
-V3 is about to put the product on Ethereum with vaults, and AI turns “delta/vega/strike” into “sell the upside, keep the yield.”
- SNX never had a distribution channel that made synthetics easy. Options finally might.
If the fractal is real, you don’t need $14 this quarter.
You need it to hold the $0.28–$0.35 shelf, reclaim $0.58, and start printing the Summer tape into year-end.
$14 on this map is 6 June 2027.
A $10B circulating options venue. Only clears if onchain options take a real bite of Deribit.
Not financial advice. The 2020–21 liquidity regime was a once-per-cycle event. Size for the $3.60 path and the $1.47 flush. Treat $14 as the blow-off, not the base case.
Year of the Fire Horse 🔥🐎
I'm reasonably confident that I'm not even thinking big enough for how much on chain options will grow through EOY 2027.
And I'm thinking in the trillions 😂
I do think on chain options will gain market share vs Deribit much faster than on chain perps have gained on Binance.
For reference, Hyperliquid and Lighter are combining for about 10% of Binance, OKX, and Bybit perp volume. @DeriveXYZ is already doing 5-8% of Deribit volume.
I think Hyperliquid and Lighter can easily get up to 30%+ of perps in 2027, but I think on chain options share (Derive, but also potentially Lighter, Paradex, HL if they're live) gets north of 50% vs Deribit.
2027 will be the year that DEXs>CEXs. Binance, Coinbase, Deribit are bloated, complacent, and asleep at the wheel. Zero innovation, garbage UI/UX. Billions more in equity value will flow to DEX tokens like $HYPE, $LIT, and $DRV from here.