Systematic market intelligence for active participants. Research tools, model views, charts, and quantitative market updates. Not financial advice.
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One founder. Specialist AI agents. A company taking shape in GitHub.
At Long Candlesticks, agents groom the backlog, build and review. I decide what ships.
Market signals, charts and alerts as a service. Preparing to launch. Follow along.
Both sides are pretty evenly matched here. They have wildly different opinions about where this is going. Both sides can't be right. Once we figure out who is, the rout will be intense. The spoils of war delivered.
The semis have been down for 9 days straight. Some key ones 10 days. Are bulls in there buying a bunch more again today? They are "due for a bounce", right? Do the market gods owe them that?
Dad used to say that people lost their minds after 10 straight. Seems orderly to me.
Lots of focus is on the Ai trade right now. Lots of money is sitting in bank stonks wondering WTF is going on in $KRE.
The semiconductor ETF was down for 9 days straight. It's having a decent day. I'm still watching NASDAQ's broad breadth for recovery this week. It's only up 0.6% today. You would expect it to improve considerably if this rough patch is past us.
The AI trades that did not bounce today are likely a great tell of where the concerns lie. $OKLO
$MARA had a 16-day streak in which it closed lower than the open. Someone is in there selling it almost every day. Just watching.
MODEL SIGNAL: $NQ_F 10m long signal #Pivots #10minsBOT
Model level: 29,694.25 | Model stop: 29,666.0
Model risk to stop: $565/contract, excl. fees/slippage
Educational model output only. Not trading or investment advice.
It's pretty obvious to me that the street hasn't hedged its downside adequately. What cemented it was Friday's VIX flash-dash. The cost of insurance rose dramatically (~30%?) in a few hours.
We've witnessed a period of heavy call buying in equities. I don't look at index or futures put/call ratios. Equity-only is where the speculation manifests. We have not seen heavy put buying since 2022. Even on Friday, we saw 65 puts trade for every 100 calls. Writing covered calls is not a meaningful downside hedge.
Volatility became unhinged Friday. It's still not out of control. Volatility in October is as old as the hills. See below.
The VIX jumped 21% Friday. Is October always like this?
Since 1928, no month has averaged more S&P 500 volatility. The leaders:
1987: Black Monday, down 20.5% in a day
1929: the Great Crash
2008: after Lehman, VIX at 89.5
The median October is ordinary. A few made history.