lom retweeted
Ray Dalio's family office sticks to what he believes and says in interviews - the decline of fiat currencies. Hence, he holds 87% in Gold ETFs.
lom retweeted
Global #gold ETFs saw US$1.9bn of net inflows last week, continuing the positive momentum since July. North America, Europe and Asia all contributed to the net inflows. See the detailed data breakdown here: gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-e…
lom retweeted
title太长了
我压缩一下
顶配凉兮大将军
孙宇晨的这个采访反响强烈，但是这个视频最大的Alpha其实是主持人。你难道不好奇，是谁让孙哥瞬间变了一个人，收起薄肌黄毛的嬉皮笑脸，这么严肃认真地输出？
他叫金明 William Joy，圈内叫他仙道。很低调，连 X 账号都没有。但他绝对是一个T0级的人类，我觉得能放到一起对标的大概只有谷爱凌了。他的履历第一眼看离谱到像编的：
- 现役自由潜水国家队，世界冠军，两项世界纪录，59 项国家纪录，打破了欧美33年开赛以来对自由潜水所有世界纪录的垄断
- 本科进哈佛学数学计算机，学生时代创业，入驻Harvard Innovation Lab，拿哈佛真理基金投资
- 极链科技创始人，27 岁拿到包括阿里在内的 10 亿元投资
- 湖畔大学四期，最年轻的创一代学员
- 从 2010 年持有特斯拉至今，加拿大持有 Tesla 最早的自然人
- 投资人，掌舵908HOLDING家办，前几天Token2049 Coinbase 全球交易赛获得第三，亚洲第一，为中国队拿到唯一的奖牌
仙道今年7月在本末社群的香港活动上做过一个精彩的压轴演讲，我推荐X上的大家如果没有看过，一定不要错过。覆盖面涉及到投资、卡牌、健康抗衰biohacking、美学、人生哲学、运气、社会责任，信息密度极高。在这个一天薄肌黄毛复读机的时代，已经很少能看到这么有深度+inspiring的内容了。
孙哥对话的视频，我只是2倍速看了一遍而已，仙道的这个视频，我1.5倍速看了两遍，甚至还在不断回去看细节。不要看AI总结，这个视频值得你的时间，看完你会来谢我。
lom retweeted
Hong Kong touts distinct features to set it apart from London in global Gold hub push:
Hong Kong will officially launch a Central #Gold clearing platform in the first quarter of 2027 handling both physical delivery and payments, linked to a real-time gross settlement system.
scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong…
lom retweeted
支付宝里面搜百万医疗，有医保一个月 53 元，无医保一个月 127 元，保 400 万，甚至还有一个「宽松版」，无并发症的高血压糖尿病和良性乳腺甲状腺肺结节也能投保。
这两个产品对于无医保人士怎么样，有坑吗，能买吗，来个大明白点评一下啊
lom retweeted
关于社保，我拉了我的社保对账单，来现身说说
从参保以来我一直是顶着3倍上限缴纳的，到去年年底累计个人账户 54万，对应着单位也交了108万(按2倍算)
退休后，54万除以139月=3884 是我能拿到的退休金个人部分，然后再根据我在退休地当年的社平均工资+我缴费年限之类的算出来一个基础养老金
基础养老金+个人部分 就是我的退休金总数
能不能到1万？如果按照现在的情况不考虑通货膨胀、亏空应该差不多
个人部分基本固定了，统筹值最关键的是在我能持续交多少年+缴费基数
像体制外不能持续交就很吃亏，你按10000交20年+20年不交，最后算下来可能只有40年持续按5000交的人的一般的基础养老金
可以看出来退休尽量到社平均工资高的省市去退休(一般是最后一个累积满10年的地方)
对了2023年的个人账户养老金利息有2万块，到2025年就只有 7700块了，如图
快去支付宝上看看你的个人账户里面有多少钱了
lom retweeted
瑞银指出，黄金自9月初以来的下跌主因美债收益率升破5.3%及美元走强，但认为鹰派利空已大部分被定价，美国劳动力市场走软信号与加息预期降温正推动买入机会成形。
历史数据显示，过去三次美债收益率从高位回落（分别是2023年10月、2024年4月与2025年1月）后，黄金分别上涨5.9%、11.4%和14.4%。
瑞银在报告指出，若劳动力市场持续降温、油价趋于稳定，预计进一步加息的理由将会减弱。加息预期与国债收益率的持续缓和，将为正在形成的买入机会提供更强确认。
从技术面出发，瑞银将3990至4030美元/盎司视为关键近期支撑区间。若金价有效跌破4000美元/盎司，意味着更深度调整；若金价持续站稳4280至4320美元/盎司以上，则代表技术动能的实质性改善，确认近期回调仍属大趋势中的整理。目前金价仍处于短期均线下方，近期动能偏软，但买入信号正在成形。
lom retweeted
很多朋友还在问我 关于交易 关于价格行为学从何学起
有什么课可以看 albrooks的原版课太过晦涩难懂
今天我推荐一些优质的博主 都是我自己学习交易的时候
个人认为对自己帮助很大的一些账号
以下排名从浅入深
入门：线索c
也就是我自己
目前市面上我还没有发现比我讲的更适合入门的价格行为学博主
主要更新平台 B站 推特 币安广场
入门：steven
来自油管的价格行为学全职交易员 他的课非常适合用来建立交易的基本框架 补充交易的底层逻辑 目前出完系列课后没有再更新
小夯
主要更新平台 油管
中级：方方土
大名鼎鼎的价格行为学学委 是国内价格行为教学绕不过的代表人物 他的课程非常详细 非常地道 他的边做边讲系列结合系统化的课程 是我学习初期最重要的学习来源
夯中夯
主要更新平台 油管
进阶：z说交易
对我来说亦师亦友的一位B站UP主 全职交易员 在我学习价格行为学已经四五年的基础上 他的理解依旧对我带来了震撼
他个人总结思考的围绕缺口展开的交易体系 非常进阶
虽然对新手很不友好 但对于老鸟来说 他的课程每一秒都是精华
夯的没边了（大乱斗也打得不错
主要更新平台 B站
进阶：V_PriceAction
还未出圈 但最近在PA圈子内口口相传的宝藏博主 全职交易员
他所更新的一些复盘 对交易的思考 和K线分析里的一些小心得个人小妙招 非常干货 基础非常扎实 对于有一定经验和年份的PA交易员 他的视频会是你进阶路上非常宝贵的资料
夯
主要更新平台 B站
lom retweeted
By the end of 2025, the proportion of gold in CN's reserve assets was only 8.8%, while the average proportion of gold in major industrial countries' central banks is 27%. CN will continue to import a large amount of gold until it matches its status as the second largest economy.
lom retweeted
What happens to stocks after midterms?
JP Morgan has mapped out 3 possible outcomes in a special research report:
GRIDLOCK
Congress is split, making major policy changes harder.
→ Defence, healthcare and some tech could benefit.
BLUE WAVE
Democrats take control of Congress.
→ Healthcare and clean energy could benefit.
RED WALL
Republicans keep control of Congress.
→ AI, infrastructure, energy and financials could benefit.
The researchers say gridlock has historically been the best outcome for stocks.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned 21% during gridlock vs 18% under single-party control.
But, Blue Wave odds are at 65% on prediction markets.
Position accordingly.
lom retweeted
SOFR Swaps Say the Fed Will Cut.
When Will the Bond Vigilantes Notice?
The swap market has been signaling Fed cuts, not a durable higher-for-longer regime. A swap spread is simply the difference between the fixed rate in a SOFR interest-rate swap and the yield on a same-maturity Treasury.
With the 2-year SOFR swap spread at minus 14.55 basis points and the 5-year spread at minus 29.10 basis points, swap fixed rates sit below Treasury yields, reinforcing the market’s expectation of lower future overnight rates.
The 5-year SOFR swap market never substantiated the higher-for-longer narrative. It has instead priced a Fed that cuts rates and keeps the average policy rate lower over the next five years than Treasury yields alone imply.
When will the bond vigilantes look at the swaps market?
lom retweeted
Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded:
Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28th.
This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen in March.
As a result, the 4-week average is up to 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in 6 months.
Persian Gulf crude oil exports have now recovered to ~80% of their pre-war levels.
This comes as the US military has increasingly secured the Strait of Hormuz and established a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume through the waterway.
Meanwhile, refined fuel shipments, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels, as these products are more expensive to transport than crude oil and some refineries in the Persian Gulf that were damaged during the early stages of the war have also yet to fully resume operations.
Oil flows are coming back, but the fuel market is still under intense pressure.
lom retweeted
In August, Warsh met Zoltan Pozsar, the architect of Bretton Woods 3.0: gold revaluation, commodities as collateral. Days later, at Jackson Hole, Warsh went hawkish and crushed gold and commodities.
Then Bessent brings in Judy Shelton and David Zervos.
Shelton has literally written the book on a gold backed dollar. Zervos has been calling for revaluation and financial repression to manage the debt.
Then Trump says inflation could pay down the $40 trillion US national debt "very rapidly."
Are you connect the dots?
lom retweeted
🔥BREAKING HUGE: JUDY SHELTON HAS JOINED THE US TREASURY DEPT AS COUNSELOR TO THE SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT⚠️
A longtime gold standard advocate, @judyshel wants the dollar linked to GOLD again.
Her plan, laid out in Good as Gold, is for the Treasury to issue long dated “Treasury Trust Bonds,” often described as 50-yr zero coupon securities, redeemable at maturity in either dollars or a preset amount of gold.
She has argued the United States should use its roughly 261 million ounces of official gold as collateral for those bonds, & that buyers would accept a lower yield in exchange for gold convertibility.
She has also called for a new Bretton Woods style arrangement & said a US link to gold would be “a power move.”
Is Shelton joining the US Treasury Dept because Bessent has RUN OUT of all other options to control the crashing bond market- and is now ready to BRING IN GOLD⁉️
lom retweeted
September produced a striking divergence between #gold and investment demand. Gold fell as US Treasury #yields surged, yet gold ETF holdings rose for a second consecutive month. The continued inflows suggest investors were looking beyond the immediate headwind from higher real yields and instead focusing on what those higher borrowing costs may ultimately mean for fiscal sustainability and already elevated government debt levels. It raises an interesting question: what happens to gold once yields stabilise and the inflationary impulse from higher energy prices begins to fade? If investment demand has remained resilient during such a hostile rates environment, an easing of that pressure could provide a powerful tailwind.
Chart source: Bloomberg
