levels to the game in consumer L/S alt data: >alt data QTD SSS% is often more accurate than mgmt SSS% est -- so 3D chess becomes, "will mgmt lie," and/or imply in their SSS% guide some sequential accel due to a new product intro >knowing which retailers have a high % of cash transactions (thus tanking RSQ on cc/alt data) >knowing that mgmt will buy the comp and so you have SSS% upside + GM% downside, forecasted with confidence, but what u dont know is how the stock will react even if your #'s are 100% accurate. >mgmt juicing qtr end SSS% thru some 1Q promo where expenses won't hit til 2Q ("exit rate accel"), alt data rips into q end even though promos/cannibalization are 1-2 q's away >mgmt's ability to play games w/ the comp base (impossible to forecast as minority shareholder)...ditto remodels, relos, expansions (remodels inflate comps in entering comp base), or excluding one-off weather/disruption events >mgmt's ability to play games w/ omni + ecom sales in triangulating consolidated SSS%...stores soft, ecom strong, report "blended comp" w minimal disclosure otherwise >ditto bopis/curbside/ship from store...ditto what store an ecom sale gets assigned to...ditto return rates (book sales 1Q juiced by promos, returns hit 2Q) >also conversion of franchise/licensed stores. sometimes its in the 10Q but the stock has moved by then, #'s moved, u aint getting paid >getting the quarter right, the guide right (say 1Q/2Q), and then the 2H guide is trash for reasons u could never have alt data'd your way into >timing of aging inventory/channel stuffing (will inv be marked down in 3 mo, 6 mo, unclear) >mgmt channel shift disclosure (wholesale/DTC) - lot of room to obfuscate revs/GM%s/fixed cost deleverage >accounting for loyalty/gift-card/card credit programs to boost ebit/eps >data is just straight up fucking wrong because what the fuck do they care, you're paying for it anyway