
I cover politics and forecast elections at RacetotheWH, and came the closest to predicting the House correctly in 2022. @ColumbiaSIPA Alum
Washington D.C., USA
Joined January 2019
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If the media is going to extensively cover Hasan Piker, they must also spend time on Mike Rogers' racist attacks. He falsely claims El-Sayed believes America deserved 9/11 and alleges family ties to al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. His real message: don't vote for the Arab.
From Trafalgar? In South Carolina? That is a stunner. We need a pollster like NYT or Marist in there asap
SOUTH CAROLINA POLL - Senate
🟥 Darline Graham: 43%
🟦 Annie Andrews: 42%
🟨 Other: 6%
@trafalgar_group | LV | 9/23-25 | R59/D29
thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-con…
It's remarkable that Adam Hamilton has a better shot at flipping the Kansas Senate Seat than Cindy Holscher has of holding on to the Kansas Governorship. Here's how the Senate race compares to the Governor race in the recent Wedgewood poll.
My hot take is that Republicans tried to hide the Midterm convention. Think about it. It was scheduled during the first few days of the NFL Season. It got watched by just 2-4 million. Trump wanted it, and his senior staff chose the date it would be watched the least.
Logan Phillips retweeted
Democrats are zooming ahead in the national generic ballot since the start of September, and their lead has expanded to 8.2%.
Over the last week, Democrats have led in all 13 national generic ballot polls, by an average of 8.7 points: 50.2% to 41.5%. If that margin held through Election Day, it would be the largest advantage for either party in the national House vote in a midterm since 1986.
Logan Phillips retweeted
A little secret from inside the legislative process: Lobbyists try to kill bills much more frequently than they try to pass them.
However, sometimes momentum to do SOMETHING becomes so large, that the lobbyists opposing progress transition to their second favorite playbook:
1. Claim to support the ultimate goal.
2. Use the opportunity to shove into the bill provisions that are antagonistic to the actual goal people have momentum toward, and/or just weaken the bill substantially.
3. Claim they supported the full goal of the bill all along, while insisting nothing further ever gets passed in this space.
a16z, Chris Lehane, and Leading the Future did this for SB53, RAISE, SB315, and most other AI bills they've engaged on.
They are now trying it at the federal level.
They know that the most people only see steps 1 and 3, and that step 2 happens in the shadows.
This is even more confusing when it seems like most of the employees at a company want real regulation - the gov affairs offices can still be an island out in their own.
They are savvy political operators, and the people they are up against (most Americans) don't have that same depth of view on how the sausage is made.
To everyone who genuinely wants real AI regulation, please don't fall for their games.
Logan Phillips retweeted
“This is the first time I’m ever hearing this story in its entirety, and I’m so, like, incredibly grateful to you that you saved my life.”
Audrey De Leon was a baby at a daycare near the Twin Towers on 9/11. Darla Stuckey sprang into action and ran with her to safety.
The polling has been breaking Democrats' way in the last week:
Trump's Approval fell to 34.8%, an all-time low.
Democrat's lead in the Generic Ballot rose to 7.5%, an all-time high.
They lead in 5-GOP controlled Senate races.
(RacetotheWH Poll Average)
This poll shows what a drag Trump is on the GOP right now. Voters told Emerson they liked Governor Lombardo personally. More approved than disapproved. They still showed him down by 2%
Emerson poll | 9/5-9/8 LV
Nevada Governor 2026
🟦Aaron Ford 44%
🟥Joe Lombardo 42%
⬜️Danielle Ford 2%
Undecided 11%
——
President Trump approval (NV)
❌Disapprove 55%
✅Approve 37%
emersoncollegepolling.com/ne…
Logan Phillips retweeted
New YouGov/Economist poll out this AM has Democrats up 11 points on the House vote among likely voters. This is with named candidates, not the usual "generic ballot," which in my testing with CES data is typically more accurate in forecasting outcomes
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne…
Abdul El-Sayed has now led 7 of the last 8 polls, and ironically the best sign might be the last poll that came out today, showing him down by 1.4%. That same pollster showed him down by 10% in late July right before the primary.
Back in January, Michael Whaley said that "inflation has fallen off a cliff", and Roy Cooper is turning it into campaign gold.
I figure Whatley is a little too used to defending the President in maximal terms as a former RNC chair.
It's a different game in the Senate. You can quibble and say at the very specific time Whatley said it, the rate of inflation was technically very slightly down. But voters didn't feel like it was getting better, and you can't just talk people into feeling good about the economy.















