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My NFL POTD for Thursday☢️
Josh Allen 248.5 Passing Yards "O" -114 FD
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we just ran this spot on Sunday with Allen and I'm doubling back for more...
the Lions rank 21st in passing yards and allow the most passing yards in the mid to high yardage parts of the field (10-20+ yards) where Allen strives getting 46% of his yards in areas where Detroit ranks last.
we saw what Tyler Shough did to them on Sunday granted the saints were in the complete opposite position as the bills but Shough putting up 410 yards shows us how weak this defense really is
the last time Allen faced the Lions (2024) he dropped 362 passing yards
Allen is favored -125 for the over on his 30.5 pass attempt line - last season in games where Allen had at least 29+ pass attempts he is over in a perfect 8/8 games averaging 292.6 passing yards
this season Allen is 1/1 covering vs Houston in a tough matchup where he was still able to go over his passing yards line 334/220.5 while only attempting 29 pass attempts
love this spot for Allen lets see if he can get it done for us again on Thursday.
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The Best Over in the NFL on Thursday🏈
Matthew Stafford 22.5 Completions "O" -130 FD
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last season the 49ers allowed the 5th most completions to the QB
Stafford's pass attempt line sits at 34.5 attempts - where vs the 49ers last season he recorded 47 and 36 attempts
I'm assuming Stafford gets at least 32+ PA in this game
last season when Stafford played against a bottom 10 DVP and attempted 32+ PA he was over this line in 75% of games (6/8) averaging 25.6 completions
H2H last season Stafford is over in 2/2 games putting up 30 completions and 24 completions where his line sat at 23.5 completions giving us some extra value on this 22.5 line
Stafford has SO many weapons on offense and is in a perfect position to put them to use tomorrow i don't see this missing at all
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My NFL POTD for Thursday☢️🏈
Christian McCaffrey 4.5 Rec "O" -106 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing
CMC was over this line in 79% of games last season
CMC averaged 7.5 targets per game last season
when we look at games where CMC had at least 5+ targets he is over this line in 88% of games in 2025 averaging 6.4 receptions
With Purdy and 5+ targets CMC is over this line in 8/9 games averaging 6 receptions
H2H last season CMC is over in 2/2 games getting 8 receptions in both games on 9 & 10 targets
Rams allow the 26th most receptions to the RB position
with how much the rams defense has upgraded this offseason I can see a lot of pressure on Purdy where he is in a spot to get quick passes off feeding CMC endless targets
against a bottom DVP teams CMC is over this line in 8/8 games last season averaging 6.8 receptions
out of the last 12 RBs that faced this Rams team 8/12 have gone over their projection
not overthinking this, will be free
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My NFL POTD for Thursday☢️🏈
Christian McCaffrey 4.5 Rec "O" -106 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing
CMC was over this line in 79% of games last season
CMC averaged 7.5 targets per game last season
when we look at games where CMC had at least 5+ targets he is over this line in 88% of games in 2025 averaging 6.4 receptions
With Purdy and 5+ targets CMC is over this line in 8/9 games averaging 6 receptions
H2H last season CMC is over in 2/2 games getting 8 receptions in both games on 9 & 10 targets
Rams allow the 26th most receptions to the RB position
with how much the rams defense has upgraded this offseason I can see a lot of pressure on Purdy where he is in a spot to get quick passes off feeding CMC endless targets
against a bottom DVP teams CMC is over this line in 8/8 games last season averaging 6.8 receptions
out of the last 12 RBs that faced this Rams team 8/12 have gone over their projection
not overthinking this, will be free
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The Best Over in the NFL on Wednesday🏈
Cooper Kupp 2.5 Rec "O" -132 FD
drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing
the Seahawks RB core is not what is was at all last season where they lost Walker and also wont be using Charbonnet where he's missing the 1st 4 games of the season due to a torn ACL
this puts a TON of targets and yards up in the air
in the Superbowl without Charbonnet but with Walker Kupp managed to put up 6 receptions on 12 targets clearing this line before halftime.
although the Pats have a very tough matchup for the passing game ranking bottom 7 in rec yards and 14th in receptions their flaw is short / slot passes where Kupp excels
Kupp catches 45% of his passes in the left / right side of the slot range where New England allows the 6th most receptions and the 8th most receptions
Kupp is averaging 5.8 targets in his last 5 games and 3.6 receptions
in the Superbowl we saw Kupp lead the team in targets with JSN completing 4/10 passes and Shaheed 2/5 passes and Kupp with 6/12
in Kupps L10 games of the season he averaged 5.1 targets and 3.3 Receptions in games where Kupp gets 4+ targets he is over this line in 9/10 games averaging 4.1 receptions
trusting Kupp to get it done
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My NFL POTD for Wednesday☢️🏈
NFL IS BACK!
Drake Maye 232.5 PYDs -114 FD "O"
drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing!
last season in Maye's last 10 games we saw him average 29.2 PA now facing the seahawks who have allowed the 4th most PA and the 9th most completions this puts Maye in a great spot to get at least 25+ PA
in games where Maye attempts 25+ passes he is over this line in 9/10 games averaging 276.9 passing yards
the last time Seattle and the Patriots faced off in the Superbowl Maye put up 295 passing yards
the seahawks ranked 14th in passing yards allowed last season
pats have added AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs as well another + to this prop giving Maye some more weapons to pass to
in a tough matchup for Stevenson and Henderson Maye will have no other option but to pass the ball we saw how this panned out in the Superbowl
expecting a lot of quick passes from Maye against a team that struggles with short / behind the LOS passes where in their last meeting the RBs accounted for 66 yards and are allowed the 6th most rec yards along with TEs who also are allowed the 6th most rec yards
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My NFL POTD for Wednesday☢️🏈
NFL IS BACK!
Drake Maye 232.5 PYDs -114 FD "O"
drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing!
last season in Maye's last 10 games we saw him average 29.2 PA now facing the seahawks who have allowed the 4th most PA and the 9th most completions this puts Maye in a great spot to get at least 25+ PA
in games where Maye attempts 25+ passes he is over this line in 9/10 games averaging 276.9 passing yards
the last time Seattle and the Patriots faced off in the Superbowl Maye put up 295 passing yards
the seahawks ranked 14th in passing yards allowed last season
pats have added AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs as well another + to this prop giving Maye some more weapons to pass to
in a tough matchup for Stevenson and Henderson Maye will have no other option but to pass the ball we saw how this panned out in the Superbowl
expecting a lot of quick passes from Maye against a team that struggles with short / behind the LOS passes where in their last meeting the RBs accounted for 66 yards and are allowed the 6th most rec yards along with TEs who also are allowed the 6th most rec yards
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✅✅Flau’Jae Johnson 18.5 PR “O” -125 FD
Bang bang 4 POTDS in a row now LFG 💪🏽
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My WNBA POTD for Sunday☢️
Flau'Jae Johnson 18.5 PR "O" -125 FD
Johnson is in a beautiful spot here going against the sparks who allow the MOST PR to the guard position this season.
the spread on this game is 1.5 so im expecting Johnsons to get at least 25 mins
when Johnson gets 25+ mins against a bottom 5 dvp she is over this line in 80% of games this season averaging 21.8 PR clearing this line in 8/10 games including two vs the sparks where she dropped 26 PR in their first meeting on 30 minutes and 28 PR in their second meeting in 27 minutes.
the sparks defensively allow the 2nd most points and the 3rd most rebounds
Johnson attempts 33% of her shots under the net where the sparks allow the 3rd most points in their last 5 games
Johnson attempts 31% of her shots from the 3 point line where the sparks rank 6th in points allowed
Johnson attempts 21% of her shots from the paint where the sparks rank 7th in points allowed
Johnson scores 32% of her points driving where the sparks allow the 2nd most points
Johnson scores 22% of her points pulling up where the sparks allow the 6th most points
Johnson scores 18% of her points off the catch and shoot where the sparks allow the 3rd most points
Johnson scores 14% of her points off rebound where the sparks allow the 5th most points
some honorable mentions that have also went over their projection vs the sparks include
Citron 25 / 20.5
Gray 23 / 22.5
Citron 27 / 20.5
Miles 31 / 23.5
Williams 20 / 17.5
Ionescu 34 / 22.5
Arike 22 / 16.5
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My WNBA POTD for Sunday☢️
Flau'Jae Johnson 18.5 PR "O" -125 FD
Johnson is in a beautiful spot here going against the sparks who allow the MOST PR to the guard position this season.
the spread on this game is 1.5 so im expecting Johnsons to get at least 25 mins
when Johnson gets 25+ mins against a bottom 5 dvp she is over this line in 80% of games this season averaging 21.8 PR clearing this line in 8/10 games including two vs the sparks where she dropped 26 PR in their first meeting on 30 minutes and 28 PR in their second meeting in 27 minutes.
the sparks defensively allow the 2nd most points and the 3rd most rebounds
Johnson attempts 33% of her shots under the net where the sparks allow the 3rd most points in their last 5 games
Johnson attempts 31% of her shots from the 3 point line where the sparks rank 6th in points allowed
Johnson attempts 21% of her shots from the paint where the sparks rank 7th in points allowed
Johnson scores 32% of her points driving where the sparks allow the 2nd most points
Johnson scores 22% of her points pulling up where the sparks allow the 6th most points
Johnson scores 18% of her points off the catch and shoot where the sparks allow the 3rd most points
Johnson scores 14% of her points off rebound where the sparks allow the 5th most points
some honorable mentions that have also went over their projection vs the sparks include
Citron 25 / 20.5
Gray 23 / 22.5
Citron 27 / 20.5
Miles 31 / 23.5
Williams 20 / 17.5
Ionescu 34 / 22.5
Arike 22 / 16.5
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✅✅ Dearica Hamby 20.5 PR “U” -125 FD
BANG cash the MF POTD 3 in a row now🔥
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My WNBA POTD for Friday
Dearica Hamby 20.5 PR "U" -125 FD
locking this line in ASAP as its moving to 19.5 on most books...
the mystics allow the 3rd least PR to the PF position and rank 2nd to last in points allowed and dead last in Reb allowed to the F position
this season when Hamby is facing a top 5 dvp she is only over this line in 2 out of 13 games (15%) averaging 16.7 PR where her two overs BARELY hit her projection dropping 21 PR in both of the overs
the mystics rank top 2 in DEF ranking, when Hamby is facing a top 5 def ranking team she is also only over this line in 3 out of 13 games (23%) averaging 18.2 PR
H2H this season Hamby is under this line in 1/2 games vs the mystics where her over was at the very beginning of the WNBA season dropping 21 PR and in their most recent visit Hamby put up 18 PR going under her projection. in both games she played 30 and 32 minutes and still managed to perform poorly.
Hamby is attempting 73% of her shots under the net where the mystics rank dead last this season in points allowed putting her in a very tough matchup to score
the mystics allow the 3rd least points driving where Hamby scores 37% of her points
the mystics allow the 2nd lease points in the cut where Hamby scores 20% of her points
the mystics allow the 3rd least off rebound points where Hamby scores 19% of her points
out of the last 11 forwards that faced the mystics only ONE has gone over
given all this info and how poorly Hamby has been playing recently this is a no brainer
My WNBA POTD for Friday
Dearica Hamby 20.5 PR "U" -125 FD
locking this line in ASAP as its moving to 19.5 on most books...
the mystics allow the 3rd least PR to the PF position and rank 2nd to last in points allowed and dead last in Reb allowed to the F position
this season when Hamby is facing a top 5 dvp she is only over this line in 2 out of 13 games (15%) averaging 16.7 PR where her two overs BARELY hit her projection dropping 21 PR in both of the overs
the mystics rank top 2 in DEF ranking, when Hamby is facing a top 5 def ranking team she is also only over this line in 3 out of 13 games (23%) averaging 18.2 PR
H2H this season Hamby is under this line in 1/2 games vs the mystics where her over was at the very beginning of the WNBA season dropping 21 PR and in their most recent visit Hamby put up 18 PR going under her projection. in both games she played 30 and 32 minutes and still managed to perform poorly.
Hamby is attempting 73% of her shots under the net where the mystics rank dead last this season in points allowed putting her in a very tough matchup to score
the mystics allow the 3rd least points driving where Hamby scores 37% of her points
the mystics allow the 2nd lease points in the cut where Hamby scores 20% of her points
the mystics allow the 3rd least off rebound points where Hamby scores 19% of her points
out of the last 11 forwards that faced the mystics only ONE has gone over
given all this info and how poorly Hamby has been playing recently this is a no brainer
✅✅Kiki Iriafen 14.5 P “O” -130 FD
BANG cash the MF POTD easily in the 3rd Q🤝
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My WNBA POTD for Thursday
Kiki Iriafen 14.5 P "O" -130 FD
the spread on this game is 4.0 so we know its going to be a pretty close one, given that we can assume Kiki will get at least 27+ mins
when Kiki gets 27+ mins and 10+ FGA she is over this line in 76% of games this season averaging 18.7 PPG
the Mercury allow the 7th most points to the F position - when Kiki is against a 5-10 DVP team with 27+ mins she is over this line in 67% of games averaging 17.6 PPG
overall the Mercury allow the 9th most points
in Kiki's most recent facing vs the mercury she put up 18 points in 28.7 mins on 14 FGA hitting her projection in the 3rd Q
Kiki is attempting 64% of her shots under the net where the Mercury are allowing the 5th most points this season putting her in a great spot to score the ball tonight
the mercury allow the 8th most off rebound points where Kiki scores 27% of her points
the mercury allow the 8th most post up points where Kiki scores 27% of her points
some honorable mentions that have also went over their points projection vs the Mercury include
Iriafen 18 / 14.5
Onyenwere 10 / 8.5
Ogwumike 18 / 15.5
Burrell 19 / 15.5
Onyenwere 13 / 7.5
McBride 37 / 16.5
with he way Kiki has been hooping recently paired with the mid to easier side of a matchup i think Kiki should crush this line vs the Mercury
