This is insane: Warren Buffett is now building his cash balance at an unprecedented rate, even as the market hits new records. Berkshire Hathaway just announced that they are FREEZING buybacks and holding $325 BILLION of cash. What does Warren Buffett see here? (a thread)

Mortgage rates are skyrocketing: The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage just jumped another 8 basis points yesterday alone. Homebuyers can now expect an average interest rate of 7.23%, up sharply from 6.70% seen just 1 month ago. In Q3 2024, the median US home sold for $420,400 which means a mortgage payment with 20% down would be $2,343/month. Including taxes and insurance, homebuyers can now expect to spend over $3,000/month. In other words, homebuyers are now spending over 50% of their post-tax income on home payments. Truly mind-blowing numbers.

Oil markets are trading like we are in a recession: Oil prices are down another -7% today and now down -20% over the last 6 months. Despite record high stock prices and a Fed calling for a "soft landing," oil markets are crashing. What are oil markets telling us? (a thread)

Serious delinquencies on US auto loans are skyrocketing: Auto loan 90+ day delinquency rates are now 2.88%, the highest since Q2 2010. The percentage has almost DOUBLED in just 2.5 years. Serious delinquent auto loans have been rising at the fastest pace since the 2008 Financial Crisis. At the same time, auto loan debt held by Americans rose to a record $1.63 trillion, 92% above 2008 levels. Meanwhile, car insurance costs jumped by 15% in the first half of 2024 and hit a new record of $2,329. The car market bubble is popping.

BREAKING: The mortgage demand index reached 142 this month, recording the worst September since 1994. Since 2020, mortgage applications declined 55% and sit 44% below pre-pandemic levels. This is despite mortgage rates falling by 1.1 percentage points since May, to 6.1%, the lowest level since September 2022. Meanwhile, pending home sales have declined for a third consecutive year and hit another record low in August. Lower rates are not helping in housing.

BREAKING: A record 87% of Americans now believe it is a bad time to buy a home, more than DOUBLE the 2008 peak. At the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, just 40% of Americans said it was a bad time to buy a home, according to Reventure. In fact, even when mortgage rates hit a whopping 18% in the 1980s, sentiment was not as bad as it is now. In the 1980s, this metric peaked at 79%, 8 percentage points BELOW current levels. This is by far the most pessimistic housing market sentiment in history. How is this a "soft landing?"