Extreme weather attribution & atmospheric modeling | Focused on storylines, scenarios & climate signals | Sharing climate insights | Views my own.
Vianen, Nederland
Joined September 2009
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New News & Views in Nature Communications on conditional attribution and complex extremes.
Inspired by the 2024 Valencia flash flood study, I reflect on how we attribute highly convective events in a warming climate.
nature.com/articles/s41467-0…
Statistical attribution tells us how the likelihood of event classes changes.
But for complex, local extremes, we also need conditional (storyline-based) approaches to understand how climate change alters the physical processes within a specific event.
The next step is not choosing between methods — but connecting attribution with impact research.
If we want actionable climate science, physical insight, statistical attribution and impact analysis must go hand in hand.
#ClimateChange #ExtremeWeather #Attribution #storylines
🚨 New paper! “Spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution” (Feser & Shepherd, 2025).
Clear, concise, and educational: what they are, why they matter, and how they differ from scenarios.
🔗 nature.com/articles/s43247-0…
SN storylines = constrain dynamics, let thermodynamics evolve freely.
➡️ Powerful for extremes (heatwaves, rainfall, storms)
➡️ Easy to interpret & communicate
A must-read for anyone into #ExtremeWeatherAttribution
Sea fog at Scheveningen — nature’s sneaky surprise for beachgoers. Rolling in fast, stealing the sun, chilling the air… and then gone before lunch as if nothing happened.
#Scheveningen #SeaFog #CoastalWeather #BeachLife #WeatherPhenomenon #DutchCoast #zeevlam #WeatherWatch
Zeevlam op Scheveningen. Niet te voorspellen en het gaat zeer snel. Het blijft een bijzonder fenomeen. Binnen minuten daalt de temperatuur aanzienlijk en wordt alles aan het zicht onttrokken. Meestal duurt het niet lang. #scheveningen #zeevlam #mist #denhaag @helgavanleur
When extreme weather happens, the question is:
Did climate change make it more likely?
Probabilistic attribution helps us answer that question.
Learn more here:
lindavangarderen.com/extreme…
#ClimateChange #ExtremeWeather #EventAttribution #Heatwave #ClimateScience
Tomorrow: hot 🔥 & muggy 💧 across the Benelux. Side-by-side map shows max 2 m air temp vs max wet-bulb temp (how muggy it’ll feel). Higher WBT = harder to cool & higher heat-stress risk. Full explainer + hi-res map 👉 lindavangarderen.com/2025/08…
Data from @KNMI UWC-West HARMONIE-AROME Cy43 (Europe)
#heat #weather #Benelux #KNMI #wetbulb #meteorology #publichealth #humidity
Dr. Linda Gavras - van Garderen retweeted
July 2025 didn't break any global temperature records, but large regional records were still shattered.
This is the largest Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for any month for the Pacific 30-50°N region:
“Adequate quality”? Not helpful.
Reading a paper twice? No thanks.
I put together a succinct peer review protocol that is to the point:
✔️ Concrete steps
✔️ No vague advice
✔️ Free PDF + checklist
lindavangarderen.com/peer-re…
#PeerReview #ClimateScience #AcademicLife #OpenScience
Dr. Linda Gavras - van Garderen retweeted
Het eerder afgegeven advies over de wolf is verder aangescherpt: blijf weg uit alle landgoederen, bos- en natuurgebieden op de Utrechtse Heuvelrug tussen A12 en A28.
Lees het bericht en de actuele adviezen op: provutr.nl/246b12
ALT Beeld: Manuel Reichert
Lovely explainer on the meteorology of heatwaves for those who would like to go a bit more in depth 🤓🤓
when it's hot outside, I feel the need to continually repost an old post of mine about the meteorology of heat waves
theclimatebrink.com/p/anatom…
Can we really say climate change made a heatwave or flood worse?
Yes — through extreme weather attribution.
Here’s a quick explainer 🧵
#ClimateScience #ExtremeWeather
By comparing outcomes, scientists detect the climate signal.
In this example, the world with climate change (factual) shows much higher temperatures than the world without it (counterfactual).
That difference? That’s the fingerprint of climate change.
Thanks for reading! 🙏
This is part of my ongoing work in climate science.
More on my site (including my CV): lindavangarderen.com
Connect on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/linda-gavras…
#ClimateChange #AttributionScience #SciComm
