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An immense honor to have been a guest with Tom Bodrovics @PalisadesRadio. As a long-time subscriber and fan of your work, it was nothing short of a pleasure to be with you.
Let's prepare for what's next with the macro backdrop on the heels of a massive move in #gold and #silver
Cliff - The Liberty Offensive: While the Fed Nukes the Economy, Metals Primed to Move
palisadesradio.ca/cliff-the-…
@LibertyOffense #Freedom #Understanding #Narratives #Fundamentals #Debt #Rates #Inflation #Pivot #Fed #Politics #Risk #Recession #Depression #Crisis #Silver #Gold #Miners
Gold & Uranium
Gold doesn't break down anymore from here unless the entire market suffers from a meaningful headline. We all know it could happen, and many would argue that's it's "due"
If that happened, gold's Weekly 200EMA is the target -- call it ~$3500 by the time it likely happened which corresponds with horizontal price support as well. A quick flush resulting in an even quicker rebound from what would mark a definitive pivot low for the next rally higher. Anything is possible, so could it dip a little below the 200? Sure, but the 200 is what you mark to buy.
Should that happened, I'd leverage my life to this point to buy. Whatever I had to do to raise more capital, I'd do it to buy that moment in time.
Right now though, we have some double bottom potential correcting from the $5600 high. Rather than a double bottom, this could also simply serve as the basis of a new consolidation channel where we grind within a $600 (4K to 4.6K) range possibly setting up a new breakout to occur within ~6 months. I see two near term (current) bullish options, and one short term bearish. All three views equate to long term bullishness. The only question is when to buy more.
I don't personally see a problem, one way or the other. Regardless of what happens next, bulls are back into an accumulation zone with a notable variable to consider. I think the downside variable is much more important to view from the lens of time than price, though. That's because the downside variable in my opinion would be quick and aggressive rather than long and drawn out.
This is exactly the type of moment when conviction is tested.
In Uranium I'd watch flagships like Cameco and see if they test the ~$65 to $70 range, otherwise without the aforementioned market mayhem it's a good time to start accumulating new shares in this sector as well. I see the same sort of reading here, where you're at a good spot to buy (all things being equal) with broader market fear being what is or may be holding you back a little longer.
I think uranium stocks will track gold stocks pretty well from here once again (they have a strong history of synchronicity in key moments especially since 2020).
Silver follows gold so there's nothing to add. If you're buying gold you're buying silver too and we know what we need to know about gold.
The Liberty Offensive retweeted
People are so obsessed with the 2008 boogeyman that they now blame every Gold decline on “liquidity” and treat it as proof the stock market is about to crash.
Real interest rates, Gold’s primary driver, are at 19 year highs. The yield curve is flattening. The Fed has begun tightening, and financial conditions have tightened too.
That is bearish for Gold, but it is temporary. Much has been discounted already.
This is the major decline in Gold and Silver you're so worried about. It started in February. It's almost over.
You just cannot see it if you still have 2008 brain.
The bond market is crashing.
Gold and silver are crashing.
Yet the stock market has remained steady.
How does that make sense?
Is the stock market predicting that so much liquidity will be added to the system that stocks eventually “crash upward”?
If so, why are gold and silver falling?
Someone is wrong.
It’s well known that bond traders are more sophisticated than stock traders.
What’s less appreciated is that precious-metals investors are even more discerning than both.
While gold has been selling off, ETF flows have quietly been moving in the opposite direction.
The market can ignore this divergence for a while.
But eventually, fundamentals assert themselves.
When the dust settles, those who understood the value of precious metals early will be the ones who emerge with the greatest fortunes.
Silver doesn't need new highs to be profitable. The miners have been proving what I've been saying about that.
As of right now I'd actually expect a strong winter for gold and silver along with the miners. The chart and price action are reflecting a lot of geopolitical and financial uncertainty, and those narratives are changing weekly. This is alongside the initial ramp up, profit taking, and natural/expected correction after a major run.
There will continue to be "random" yoyo action (which is a natural part of metals bull market volatility anyway), but massive upside is coming once the market locks in on the forthcoming economic turmoil.
The Middle East is unfortunately not a nothinburger. We've added new ingredients into our cake batter that can no longer be removed. New elements of "inevitability" are now a part of that cake.
Physical metals are quickly becoming precious holdings and to an ever growing collection of governments, investors, and private citizens. We're definitely on a bad track here, and metals prices will without question reach new and massively higher prices. The question of course is always "when" and that again is being both deferred and determined by everchanging geopolitical and financial headlines which will maintain a yoyo until the next "bad headline" releases the Kraken.
Narrative still drives everything. The reality of our situation and the most likely outcomes can be discerned, but the narrative will almost always determine timing.
I see what he's saying on a purely technical basis, but I disagree on there being a "cold winter" for metals. The chart represents price action, and there are a lot of moving parts in that price action.
Metals in bull markets (which we are in, and is not over yet) will be the first and strongest to rebound after any "bad news" while also being the most likely to hold strong support.
It's not a good time to install fear into the idea of holding onto metals and related assets like miners. It's a good time to be pointing out buying opportunities though. That's the problem with these types of posts. Everyone wants to call timing without any consideration for investor psychology for the big picture. This guy in particular is still riding an "I told you so" on a correction that everyone expected.
Everyone is so confident to be negative on metals prices without ever being positive on buying opportunity.
I don't believe in doomerism nor do I subscribe to persistent optimism. I believe in adaptation to each and every circumstance. The current best manner of adaptation that I can identify is preparation for the unfolding of doomerism principles unfortunately.
Everyone gets their time to shine, afterall. Doomers are 'right' the least often, but when they are it's in the most extreme ways. Consider landing a royal flush in poker. Doesn't happen very often; in fact you've possibly never even had one before. But you're guaranteed to win the entire pot when you do. The only variable once you have that hand is the pot size itself. Turns out, the pot itself is where most poker is actually played.
For years, money was actually "wasted" prepping for an event that was so far away that the resources were better invested in other ways before converting into gold and silver at a much higher exchange basis. That time is mostly over now. Resources are now best spent directly on metals when possible, as timing (which is still not knowingly precise) has become a lot more clear in terms of near-term inevitability.
You don't worry about "when" new highs are coming in metals during a bull market. You buy when you can, especially after it's corrected.
All that aside, I am actually looking forward to this winter in metals.
This is not a market awaiting new highs anytime soon. We could be looking at a long cold winter ahead $SI_F
Liberty Gold has released the Feasibility Study for Black Pine: 4.04 Moz Probable Reserve, 202 koz/yr in Years 1–5, US$411M initial capital and US$2.4B after-tax NPV5% at US$3,250/oz Au.
At today's gold price, it's trading around 0.18x which is well below the industry standard let alone the quality of the project. It will be permitted and it will be built, all culminating with even higher future gold prices.
It's a banger. Congrats to all who joined the ride.
$LGDTF
$LGD.TO
I'd say it's been an impressive bear trap even though it should not have been. Just a standard, volatile and predictable correction to the weekly 50ema which was the price point we called and nailed years in advance as we forecasted this bull run.
Gold and silver are behaving quite robotically in accordance to all anticipated precedent for bull runs, yet fear controls the purse strings anyway.
The miners are impressive, as they are clearly anticipating higher for longer. Remember, miners don't need 7k gold or $200 silver, they have only ever needed an established higher floor.
That's the significance of what's taking place that most don't appreciate or even understand.
Those higher metals prices are an inevitable long term part of the strategy but are not required for stability or growth in the stocks.
Though I don't typically put much thought or consideration into seasonality, it's a pretty interesting additional point of confluence to find metals and miners resting at these major backtests as gold finishes off June, which is always its worth month of the year (and also the final month of being 'out of season')
Next week gold officially enters into bullish seasonality and it only grows stronger as the year marches on.
Keep accumulating while you can. I'll work on my oil update soon as it's now below $70 as expected.
There's really nothing to be afraid of. The 200ema Plan exists for a reason. Everything is accounted for.
There's a reason why I repeat one word as much as patience... That word of course is confluence. Because confluence is the actual secret to any chart at any time and in any situation.
Mostly vindicated already. I like what I see. This is not the first time I've caught this setup, and called this type of price action. I told you exactly what to look for and what would happen until ~90% or more of the flagships made their retracement. Read the quoted tweet.
It's not a coincidence that GFI, one of the most egregiously stubborn flagship names had a 10% selloff today vs the sector. I literally had a post drafted telling you guys to watch GFI specifically too, but ended up not posting it. It's has arrived at the support it was being stubborn about, in confluence with what the rest of the sector is doing.
"But there was news!" -- There always is when they lag too long, we've called that before too as something to look for in these situations. It's just what happens. Don't overthink it. It's just how it works. Literally.
Notice that the price itself isn't as low as it was on the 10th, but the breakout breadth is lower now than it was during the prior lower price. And that of course, is the 'price' element that matters for retracement.
This is why you see just about everyone making so many mistakes in gold, silver and oil. They literally cannot read the charts, though they may actually be good chartists. They haven't found the secret sauce to the cycle.
Every market, every sector and every point in time within the market requires figuring out HOW to read it for that specific time.
That's why our tactics for gold and silver have been completely different than what we used for our laser precision in Uranium. Same with oil. They're different and have different "tricks" to them. You have to find them in each and every cycle.
That's why silly slopes and support/resistance as well as indicators like RSI are entirely worthless in this bull run, and have been since it started (which we called before it happened!). Because they tell you nothing whatsoever about what's next. That's not where the secret sauce is right now.
New precedent is being set, and runaway breakout breadth is the key along with some other prior precedent still being very useful for things like nominal price retracement.
All of course, in confluence.
I like what I see. This is still how I'm playing it.
I would avoid waiting for a market crash as any kind of reference for timing or reason to wait. Remember, while some things are definitely inevitable, inevitability is often a terrible trade/investment strategy.
In the end it's all about timing. It can take decades for inevitability to arrive.
I bring this up because this seems to be what everyone is afraid of, and quite frankly I see no reason not to be bullish on metals and miners right now.
Even if the market were to crash in the near future, it doesn't even matter. We knowingly have a plan for that too. We know what the response would be. We know everything we need to know already.
In terms of both price and timing, the weekly 50ema & 200ema on physical gold are still the "must buy" retracement markers which I've literally spent years talking about. Years. That's because I knew when the bull market finally came, we'd have to deal with these types of situations and 'uncertainties' and I wanted everyone mentally prepared well in advance.
If gold were to ride along/under the W50ema rather than bounce from it, you're in an accumulation phase rather than a pivot low. That's the only other nuance you need to understand.
The plan is unchanged. The strategy is unchanged. The precedent is unchanged. The macro is still in play. The drivers behind the bull market are strengthening, even if they're temporarily and naturally offset for a moment.
The plan was never to check golds performance along the way against some sloping trendline. This is no longer the type of analysis that will get you anywhere. The plan has always been to buy major retracements using the weekly 50/200ema as the definitive guide with a clear understanding of what each of them meant in terms of expectations.
Today, gold is slightly below the W50ema. So what? That doesn't mean it's headed towards the 200. It's not unusual in a bull run to see it skirt a little below like it is now. This is normal. I've talked about this a lot in the past too.
We also predicted that many new precedent would be set during this bull run. We've been vindicated so far. Some of the new precedent you could argue is actually the lack of prior precedent being true this time around. Things are absolutely different this time. Make no mistake. I would like to compile all of the things I'm seeing the share in the near future.
I'm still very interested in the gold/oil ratio and what it's been able to tell us historically vs what's happening now. I'll have to write a standalone update about all of that later. I feel like I'm zeroing in on something but it's too early to say.
The miners are in the process of back testing their new precedent of breakout distance from moving averages just as gold dips a bit below the W50ema all of which is in confluence. Some are already there, some need a little further to go.
It's not uncommon for me to post around this point in time of a cycle... The deja vu of explaining these conditions is strong.
So once again we have confluence of miners backtesting critical support of their recent moving average breakout levels with gold skirting the weekly 50ema all while being oversold and scary to buy.
Those of you who've followed me long enough know what this means already... That we're likely to see confluence across the mining sector retracing these backtests and all completing before the next mega rally.
To clarify... This mostly applies to flagship names retesting their distance from moving average price supports. At least 90% or so of them need to complete this backtest before we can proceed again. All looks good to me.
I saw an email from Don Durrett recently, suggesting that his followers not be traders in this bull market. For 95% of you, this is spot-on advice. It's best to continually invest on major dips with a multi-year investment strategy.
That's where you're at today, if you're a bull. I personally see no reason to sell, but do see reasons to add new tranches. I can't speak to whether we get an immediate pivot bottom here or run boringly sideways for a few weeks. To get a pivot you'd need a little more fast and hard selling.
But we're back into a buy zone regardless.
#gold #silver
Since 1970 the worst month for gold is June.
33 instances of gold being down in June with only 23 being up. On average, the returns on gold in June are -0.19%
July not only tends to be a strong month, but is also the starting point for "seasonality" for the duration of the year... being strongest Nov thru Jan.
I'd say we still have the best read (or certainly a very good one) on oil for the past several years. An acute crisis and flurry of headlines did not invalidate the clear structure and precedent in oil, which is now back in play. We recommended taking profits on oil stocks 7 days prior to their actual top. A bit further out from the exact top than normal, but to be fair it was a side note on a gold post.
We are back in play to observe the gold/oil ratio to continue higher until it tops, which is where we'll likely find the bottom in oil.
Based on prior precedent this COULD take another 12 months due to oil's Dec 2025 recovery at what was literally the line in the sand. While it was a tradable pivot and bulls were buying at the right spot, it had no structure whatsoever for a long-term bottom.
Despite all of that, what happened in oil did move the goal posts we've previously established over the years. I'm no longer as certain as I was before that the extreme bottom in oil could be as low as the mid 20's... I think that number is now a bit higher, but we're absolutely going back below 55 at some point.
The absolute rock bottom low in oil would now be somewhere in the 30's if a hypothetical global crash would occur today. It's a dynamic price bottom based on several variables which are worth checking and updating every 4 weeks or so. It moves too slowly to worry about very often.
Obviously, I'll risk being wrong if more war flares up. I've always buffered my oil call with the war variable... We can't do anything about variables like that. All things being equal though, I'll be right. If variables like war (or equivalent) are introduced, things will change.
My call is how things will play out if things go "normally" so to speak. I have a very high degree of confidence in my call if that's how things are allowed to play out.
As a final note, I do believe both the oil price and gold/oil ratio are doing their jobs in letting us know where we are in the bull market cycle for the economy/stocks. My recent post on gold and being in a buy zone was based in part of the timing signals I see and the apparent low near-term risk of a major market crash.
Sure, things could roll over tomorrow for a fairly large number of reasons but the odds are actually more favorable to another 12+ months as opposed to imminence. At the end of the day, we have to play the odds. Not much different than Texas Holdem. Your gut is often less valuable than the statistics of your hand.
Summary:
I'll be interested in how oil reacts at the roughly ~$70 level. If it doesn't hold up very well, we could be in line for something much more imminent than I currently imagine across all markets. If it stabilizes around there, the upto ~12 month guidance is likely in play.
I like what I see. This is still how I'm playing it.
I would avoid waiting for a market crash as any kind of reference for timing or reason to wait. Remember, while some things are definitely inevitable, inevitability is often a terrible trade/investment strategy.
In the end it's all about timing. It can take decades for inevitability to arrive.
I bring this up because this seems to be what everyone is afraid of, and quite frankly I see no reason not to be bullish on metals and miners right now.
Even if the market were to crash in the near future, it doesn't even matter. We knowingly have a plan for that too. We know what the response would be. We know everything we need to know already.
In terms of both price and timing, the weekly 50ema & 200ema on physical gold are still the "must buy" retracement markers which I've literally spent years talking about. Years. That's because I knew when the bull market finally came, we'd have to deal with these types of situations and 'uncertainties' and I wanted everyone mentally prepared well in advance.
If gold were to ride along/under the W50ema rather than bounce from it, you're in an accumulation phase rather than a pivot low. That's the only other nuance you need to understand.
The plan is unchanged. The strategy is unchanged. The precedent is unchanged. The macro is still in play. The drivers behind the bull market are strengthening, even if they're temporarily and naturally offset for a moment.
The plan was never to check golds performance along the way against some sloping trendline. This is no longer the type of analysis that will get you anywhere. The plan has always been to buy major retracements using the weekly 50/200ema as the definitive guide with a clear understanding of what each of them meant in terms of expectations.
Today, gold is slightly below the W50ema. So what? That doesn't mean it's headed towards the 200. It's not unusual in a bull run to see it skirt a little below like it is now. This is normal. I've talked about this a lot in the past too.
We also predicted that many new precedent would be set during this bull run. We've been vindicated so far. Some of the new precedent you could argue is actually the lack of prior precedent being true this time around. Things are absolutely different this time. Make no mistake. I would like to compile all of the things I'm seeing the share in the near future.
I'm still very interested in the gold/oil ratio and what it's been able to tell us historically vs what's happening now. I'll have to write a standalone update about all of that later. I feel like I'm zeroing in on something but it's too early to say.
The miners are in the process of back testing their new precedent of breakout distance from moving averages just as gold dips a bit below the W50ema all of which is in confluence. Some are already there, some need a little further to go.
It's not uncommon for me to post around this point in time of a cycle... The deja vu of explaining these conditions is strong.
So once again we have confluence of miners backtesting critical support of their recent moving average breakout levels with gold skirting the weekly 50ema all while being oversold and scary to buy.
Those of you who've followed me long enough know what this means already... That we're likely to see confluence across the mining sector retracing these backtests and all completing before the next mega rally.
To clarify... This mostly applies to flagship names retesting their distance from moving average price supports. At least 90% or so of them need to complete this backtest before we can proceed again. All looks good to me.
I saw an email from Don Durrett recently, suggesting that his followers not be traders in this bull market. For 95% of you, this is spot-on advice. It's best to continually invest on major dips with a multi-year investment strategy.
That's where you're at today, if you're a bull. I personally see no reason to sell, but do see reasons to add new tranches. I can't speak to whether we get an immediate pivot bottom here or run boringly sideways for a few weeks. To get a pivot you'd need a little more fast and hard selling.
But we're back into a buy zone regardless.
#gold #silver
Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold.
I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here.
During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it.
The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened).
Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot.
It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this).
It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market.
I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide.
If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened).
I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal.
There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema.
Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages.
By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
I was writing a post but won't have time to finish. I'll update later today/tonight.
Spoiler: I like what I see
I've been busy all morning, just checked the market for the first time all day.
We got the touch! And I missed the bottom of it. I told you how strong that weekly 50ema was!
Quick phone chart
Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold.
I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here.
During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it.
The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened).
Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot.
It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this).
It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market.
I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide.
If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened).
I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal.
There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema.
Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages.
By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold.
I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here.
During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it.
The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened).
Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot.
It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this).
It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market.
I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide.
If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened).
I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal.
There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema.
Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages.
By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.
Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners.
I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration + the big swings = mental fatigue.
AKA shaking the tree.
That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points.
Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you.
Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week.
Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA.
That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in.
As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got.
Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one".
Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
The wicks in gold and silver.
Notice these are the same early trendlines I had in place when we called the bottom on the October 2025 retracement.
So far so good. This is what I expected.
Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners.
I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration + the big swings = mental fatigue.
AKA shaking the tree.
That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points.
Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you.
Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week.
Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA.
That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in.
As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got.
Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one".
Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners.
I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration + the big swings = mental fatigue.
AKA shaking the tree.
That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points.
Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you.
Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week.
Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA.
That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in.
As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got.
Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one".
Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.
75K Bitcoin was an easy call. It is now on the verge of losing critical support. Along the way you'd have the 50k and 31k levels to watch. Would not surprise me to see a downside target of 20k.
Tech at-large is still in trouble, and due for a market event.
Looks like we called another top with exact timing, proving everyone wrong again that timing is not possible in markets. We've done this dozens of times across several sectors and timelines.
Bitcoin has a date with 75k and perhaps lower.
Gold and silver still on track with my original forecast to potentially bottom this week (4 of 8, see prior posts).
Uranium is in synergy with gold and silver as discussed previously. This is a big deal... a far bigger deal than I've been able to get people to appreciate. This sector has a strong likelihood of bottoming with precious metals and miners at the same time.
Tech has a long way to catch down. Many gaps that will be filled.
So hopefully no one is surprised and were mentally prepared for this. Only those who are prepared and ready are ever able to actually take advantage of the situation.
I'll be posting rock hard "buy now" prices soon for all things we cover. Right now I'm on the road for business so need time to do all of this.
For us gold and silver bulls... another major move up is on the way.
Being intellectually honest there's still a chance this downside move in markets is a temporary move before one more final top, but even if that happens the timeline for the top is still right now. It's unfolding.
I'll remind you markets don't have to crash. Max pain is a slow gradual bear market starting from the top with no crash at all.
Gold is truly unstoppable. By consequence, so is silver... which is saying a lot because silver has its own mutually exclusive bull case.
All you have to do, is turn off all of the noise and ride. That's it. Buy it, then buy more during a selloff, and ride.
Just ride.
Once in a lifetime opportunity means just that.