Leonholds

MARKET UPDATE. This wasn’t a crypto-specific crash. The selloff started in AI and tech. Nasdaq: -5.5% S&P 500: -4.4% Semiconductors: -12%+ Investors are suddenly questioning the AI trade again: • possible tighter regulation • slower data-center expansion • weak chip earnings • growing doubts over massive AI spending Then crypto followed. BTC fell below $76K. ETH dropped to around $2.25K. More than $1B in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs. And there’s another problem: Yesterday’s crypto bounce looked driven heavily by short covering, while fresh spot demand remained weak. So when tech rolled over, leverage did the rest. What I’m watching next: • BTC around the $75K area • whether AI/semis stabilize • tomorrow’s US jobs report • Fed expectations, yields and the dollar • whether real spot buyers finally step in If tech stabilizes and macro cools, we could get another relief bounce. If the AI unwind continues and BTC loses support, risk-off probably isn’t finished. Not a panic zone. But definitely not a full-send zone either. #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks #Nasdaq

🇺🇸 US MIDTERMS: THE RESULT IS IN. Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. So what happened to markets? BTC initially dropped below $76K as the results came in. Then it bounced back above $78K once the uncertainty started disappearing. Nasdaq futures showed a similar move. Now the interesting part begins. A Democratic Congress + Republican White House likely means: • more political gridlock • a harder path for parts of Trump’s agenda • more scrutiny around crypto, banks and Big Tech • potentially slower progress on some crypto legislation • more attention on spending, yields and the 2027 debt ceiling The election is basically over. Now the market has to price the next two years. And that may matter a lot more than election night itself. #USMidterms #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks

🇺🇸 US ELECTION DAY. Forget the politics for a second. Here’s what the market may actually care about: 🔴 Republicans keep Congress More policy continuity. A friendlier path for crypto regulation. Less regulatory pressure on banks and tech. But potentially higher deficits, inflation expectations and Treasury yields. Good for crypto regulation. Not automatically good for every risk asset. 🔵 Democrats take Congress More scrutiny of crypto, banks and Big Tech. Harder path for parts of Trump’s agenda. More uncertainty around spending and the 2027 debt ceiling. Potentially softer yields, but more regulatory risk. 🟡 Split Congress Probably the most boring outcome. Gridlock. Fewer major policy changes. Less ability for either side to push through aggressive legislation. And markets often like one thing more than anything else: certainty. The interesting question isn’t just who wins tonight. It’s what gets repriced tomorrow. BTC? Tech? Banks? Defense? Bonds? What are you watching? #USMidterms #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks

🚢 Crypto Cruise Season 1 Episode 5: The Great Heist $6.3B stolen. $3B frozen. 🧊 Binance under attack. Trump takes notice. Elon trolls. CZ fires back. But our mysterious captain changed course BEFORE it all began... Coincidence? 👀 To be continued. #CryptoCruise #Bitcoin #BNB #Crypto #Binance @cz_binance @Elon @realDonaldTrump

Binance just dropped Security Incident Update #2. And this one is much more interesting. • Estimated loss: ~$6.3B • Binance has already set aside $6.34B+ to cover it • ~$5B is already held in the exact tokens that were stolen • ~$3B of stolen assets has been frozen on-chain • No evidence of leaked wallet private keys so far But here’s the part I’m watching: The initial theory focused on a compromised DevOps laptop. Binance now says the investigation has uncovered additional points of breach. So the money side may be getting contained. The technical side is still not fully understood. Withdrawals are expected to start returning in phases, and a fresh Proof of Reserves is coming next. This story isn’t over yet. #Binance #Bitcoin #Crypto

🚨 TRUMP IS NOW LOOKING AT THE BINANCE HACK. North Korea is the prime suspect. $6.3B stolen. And somewhere in Washington, someone is probably asking the most 2026 question imaginable: “Can a crypto hack start World War III?” Possible scenarios: 🟢 Boring: More sanctions, frozen funds, cyber investigations. 🟡 Spicy: The US treats it as a state-sponsored financial attack and goes after DPRK-linked wallets, infrastructure and money flows. 🔴 Full degen: Trump vs Kim. Cyber retaliation. Markets panic. BTC dumps 10% before anyone even figures out what happened. WWIII because someone hacked Binance? Probably not. But crypto officially becoming part of geopolitics? That part is very real. #Binance #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump

Big update on the Binance situation. Binance says it will fully cover ALL losses from the security incident using SAFU and company funds. Estimated impact: ~$6.3B Already frozen on-chain: ~$3B No evidence of leaked wallet private keys so far. Deposits are operating normally, while withdrawals remain temporarily paused during security checks. This changes the story quite a bit. The question is no longer only how much was taken. It’s how much can be recovered, how quickly withdrawals return, and how fast confidence comes back. #Binance #Bitcoin #Crypto

Binance hack update. Now we have more than just on-chain speculation. Binance estimates the total impact at ~$6.3B. Initial investigation points to a compromised DevOps laptop that gave the attacker access to a service container. No evidence of leaked wallet private keys so far. ~$3B has already been frozen on-chain. Meanwhile: • $1.53B liquidated in 24h • ~$1.29B were longs • BTC touched ~$76.5K • ETH fell below $2.2K The first wave was panic. Now the focus shifts to what happens next: Can Binance recover more funds? How fast will withdrawals normalize? Will attacker wallets move again? Three scenarios from here: 🟢 Contained 🟡 Slow recovery 🔴 Second shock The market sold first. Now recovery speed matters more than the headline. #Binance #Bitcoin #Crypto

The Binance story is still developing. But the market didn’t wait for confirmation. $627.7M liquidated in 1 hour. 97% were longs. BTC lost ~3%. ETH dropped ~4%. Meanwhile, public estimates of suspicious outflows range from $2.8B to $5.8B, with ~$2.39B in stablecoins already frozen. This is what happens when fear meets leverage. Sometimes the biggest risk isn’t the event itself. It’s everyone being positioned the same way when it happens. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Binance

Weekly On-Chain Snapshot 🔗 On-chain activity cooled again this week, but the rotation is still interesting. • 30D DEX volume: ~$213.6B • Weekly change: -8.9% • Solana still leads by a wide margin • BSC was the only Top 5 chain in the green • Hyperliquid L1 continues to hold up relatively well Price tells you what moved. On-chain data tells you where attention may go next. Which chain are you watching most closely right now? #Crypto #Onchain #DeFi

Not every day needs a trade. Sometimes the best move is just watching the market, drinking coffee and waiting for something actually worth doing. Patience is a position too. ☕️ #Crypto

Weekly On-Chain Snapshot Volume cooled this week, but rotation is still happening. • 30D DEX volume: $288.7B • 7D volume vs prior 7D: -9.9% • Solana still leads • Base held up best among the top 5 • Sonic showed the strongest growth momentum Price tells you what moved. On-chain data tells you where to look next. Which chain are you watching most closely right now? #Crypto #Onchain #DeFi

Weekly On-Chain Snapshot On-chain activity cooled off this week, but the structure is still worth watching. • 30D DEX volume: $260.7B • Weekly change: -18.1% • Solana still leads by 30D DEX volume • Ethereum held up best among the top 5 • Robinhood Chain remains a major liquidity hub Price tells you what moved. On-chain data tells you where to look next. What chain are you watching the most right now? Any favorite? #Crypto #Onchain #DeFi

GM ☕️ Some mornings don’t need a market take. Just good coffee, good music, and a little less noise.

Weekly On-Chain Snapshot Most major chains cooled off this week, but the on-chain picture is still worth watching. 30D DEX volume came in at $278.4B, down 12.49% week over week. Top 5 by 30D DEX volume: • Solana • Robinhood Chain • Ethereum • BSC • Base Base was the only top-5 chain in the green this week. Robinhood Chain stayed a standout with strong momentum. What chain are you watching the most right now? Any favorite? #Crypto #Onchain #DeFi

Weekly On-Chain Snapshot Price tells you what moved. On-chain data tells you where to look next. This week: • Solana continues to lead in activity • Robinhood enters the Top 5 by volume • Arc stands out as the hot chain with the fastest momentum Real users and real volume matter more than narrative alone. Which chain are you watching the most right now? Any favorite? #Crypto #Onchain #DeFi

If you’re starting to feel FOMO, excitement and “we’re so back” energy, it might be time to pause and think. Not every strong market should be sold. But every euphoric market should at least make you consider taking some profit. Greed feels great. Until it doesn’t. #BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

Bad news keeps coming. The Fed hikes. Macro stays tight. Everyone expects risk assets to suffer. And BTC just… refuses to break. That might be the most interesting signal on the chart right now. Strength isn’t always a green candle. Sometimes it’s simply not going down. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

Funny how the “free money” meta created a lot more Pons launches than free money. Tested it myself: old active EVM wallet, first Pons deploy, NVDA pair, 5% creator tax, dev buy 0. Result: 0 bot buys. 0 fees. Others are reporting the same, and data from 20k+ launches shows bots skip a huge number of tokens. Maybe this was never “free money” at all. Maybe we just watched a few winners advertise the lottery and drive activity to Pons. Survivorship bias dressed as alpha.

BTC is taking a breather below $80k. Not every pullback after a strong move is bearish. ETF demand is still there, structure looks better, but macro is the next real test. Fed, inflation data, oil. If buyers keep defending dips, the next leg can get interesting. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto