This is getting quite serious for the Chancellor. In the run up to the Budget we were told that the OBR’s downgrading of productivity would create a multi-billon black hole. The government started preparing public opinion for a manifesto-breaking rise in income tax. We were not told that rising wages and inflation meant more tax revenues to offset the productivity downgrade. But Rachel Reeves was. By October 31 the OBR told Reeves that she was actually sitting on a £4.2 billion surplus. Yet four days later she gave a press conference in Downing Street at which she suggested that the watchdog’s forecasts were worse than expected and made the case for tax rises. “What I want people to understand ahead of the budget, is the circumstances we face,” she said. “I could … sweep those challenges under the carpet. I am being honest with people.” In fact, as we now learn, she was being the opposite of honest. She might not survive this.