Humans aren't rational; we're rationalizing. If you ever can't understand why someone does something, follow incentives rather than logic.

I don't see a 1:1 competition between $GOOG and $NVDA. Google strategically benefits from NVIDIA's dominant market position and high-margin pricing. By training its in-house AI models (such as Gemini) on its proprietary TPUs, Google minimizes its compute costs. Meanwhile, competitors rely on NVIDIA's GPUs, which have ~70% gross margins, giving rival cloud providers a significantly higher cost basis for offering equivalent AI services. This gives Google Cloud a competitive advantage. Google reinforces this by largely avoiding the merchant silicon market, focusing its limited TPU manufacturing capacity exclusively on internal use and Google Cloud. This strategic coexistence maintains the status quo, where NVIDIA acts as a high-cost supplier to its rivals. A shift to selling high-volume standalone TPUs is further constrained by TSMC's limited packaging capacity. Thus, both the strategic incentive (keeping competitors' costs high) and practical constraints (TSMC supply) align perfectly with Google's interests, enabling it to coexist with NVIDIA rather than undermine its high-margin business model.

Online magazines can get a huge boost in page visits/advertising rev. by following the more niche markets of prediction platforms and writing (even a terrible) short blurb about the situation the bet is based on. SEO/answer engine optimization approved.

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin

“A ship in the harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.” William Shedd

As revealed by a self-selected quiz, my dominant promotion orientation (5.8/6) versus middling prevention (3.2/6) resonates with my self-perception. The distinction between gains and non-gainswithin the promotion system captures my drive. I'm energized by approaching gains – learning new languages (Mandarin, Spanish, French), actively managing my investments and outperforming benchmarks, excelling in snowboarding and tennis, and bootstrapping startups. These activities reflect a desire for accomplishment, advancement, and growth– I want to pursue "+1" rather than simply avoiding "0." My enthusiasm for life stems from this focus on maximizing my potential, making the most of my time by seizing opportunities and making real progress. I imagine myself experiencing good things that I hope will happen to me, driven by a high expectancy of positive outcomes. However, I am also cognizant of a potential downside of a strong promotion focus: a lesser emphasis on prevention. This explains a long-standing struggle with organization. While I appreciate order, ever since I was a child, I have noticed that the maintenance required for a consistently tidy desk feels like a focus on non-losses – avoiding a "0" state – rather than approaching gains. I can manage bouts of organization but struggle to maintain the steady state of prevention-focused actions, like putting five objects in their place every day rather than fifty after a while when the (dis)order finally approaches chaos. Knowing prevention is about security, safety, and responsibilities—what you feel you ought to do. A messy desk doesn't represent a loss I'm particularly concerned about avoiding. Comparing myself to a brother (a non-gainframing) on this metric seems ineffective because it doesn't tap into my core motivation. It doesn't resonate with my desire for growth and advancement. Where’s the added value of having a clean desk/room if it’s a zero-sum environment? Admittedly, there are concrete benefits to an ordered room, like spending less time looking for lost items and the mental clarity and calm that naturally correlate to harmonious environments. The key may be to reframe organization within a promotion framework. Instead of viewing it as avoiding a messy desk (a non-lossfocus), I need to connect it to a gain. A more organized workspace would enable me to be more efficient in my startup ventures, leading to greater accomplishments and advancement. Or, a tidier environment could free up mental space, allowing me to approach gains in my language learning or investment strategies. By linking the organization to my promotion-oriented goals – what I want to do – I can leverage my natural motivation to approach gainsrather than maintain non-losses. This reframing could shift my perspective from a chore to a strategic tool for achieving my aspirations. I need to find a matching messagingis crucial here. I need to "sell" the organization to myself in promotional terms, focusing on the gains it will enable rather than the losses it will prevent. One interesting takeaway is that motivation is complex and nuanced. The promotion/prevention framework provides a valuable lens for understanding how different people are motivated and how to influence their behavior. It was unsurprising that Americans are a relatively highly promotional culture. I wonder if disparity promotion/prevention bias exists between the sexes, generations, and professions. I also wonder if there is any correlation between prevention orientation and managing the number of tabs open on a browser. I constantly have too many open!

It’s better to seek mastery in a task than to meet a performance standard over an extended time period if you are optimizing for learning and outcome.

Cologne/perfume in the gym is an example of negative network effect externalities and reduces the value of the shared environment for third parties.

What are the second order derivative benefits of autonomous driving? Exurban real estate values going up seems reasonable.

What’s the advantage that @Meta sees in not allowing public developing kits? If they are trying to build out use cases for AR, and their llm is open source, why this strategy?