Retired CDN O&G investors, Like also Golf, Tennis, Hockey and making money !!!
Joined October 2021
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Interesting comparaison between 2022 #WTI contract vs 2026 (Ref. oilprice.com Crude Oil Futures and Est. Contract $).
A lot of analysts and investors crying about the higher price for #OIL which may increase inflation a lot !!!
It's only the 1st time in OCT. 2026 that the WTI hit an avg. monthly higher price vs 2022.
See for yourself !
Interesting graph ! But I see huge upside, especially for :
$CVE.TO which not count $ATH.TO acquisition in Boe/d since Q2 2026 increase by 4% + % Refining margin much higher.
$CJ.TO not counting Reford 2 now over 6,500 boe/d for Q3 and Q4 coming.
$BTE.TO No more Hedges except 45% of bbl/d with hedges at 13,12$ instead of 27$ + Peavine waterflood coming near term + Duvernay Prod. growing + SAGD project starting potential of 5,000 boe/d.
$TVE.TO merger with $HWX.TO
Do you see all 4 stocks adjusted to 20% + FCF in 2027, as I do ? Thank's for the info !
$CVE.TO Impressive future ! DYDD it's your money !
🇨🇦Canadian Oil Is $28 Cheaper Than American.
Who Collects The Difference?
At $28 a barrel, US refiners collect about $75 million a day trom Canadian crude.
The Canadian barrel still pays C$102, up 67% this year.
This is roughly what an illustrative refinery makes from a barrel:
•Gasoline: 37%
•Diesel: 37%
•Refinery fuel gas: 8%
•Jet fuel: 5%
•Petroleum coke: 4%
•Asphalt: 4%
•Residual fuel oil: 3%
•Lubricants and chemical feedstock: 2%
Canada exports about 4.5m barrels a day and refines under 2m.
Most of the rest goes to US Midwest refiners, who buy it at the discount and sell the gasoline and diesel at war prices.
The Canadian producer gets paid for the crude.
The refiner gets paid for what it turns into.
Who collects the difference is the subject of my latest article.
Link👇
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
Top 20 cumulative short positions for CND #oil and #natgas cies ending Oct. 15, 2026 + Net change in short positions + Shares out. on the TSX. Shorted shares DOWN 5,1% in the last 15 days !!!
Buyback continue for $CVE.TO
Some try to short a bit $WCP.TO $CVE $PPL.TO $TVE.TO $XEG.TO Check net change % in RED for stocks over 10% ! Shorters leave $ATH,TO with the deal ahead with Cenovus. DYDD it's your money!
🇺🇸💰Valero just had the best quarter in its history.
Net income was about $ 6.8bn, more than 6 times a year ago.
Adjusted EPS was $23.90, against $3.66 in Q3 2025.
All of it came from the margin:
🔹Refining margin: $39.24 a barrel, three times last year’s $13.14
🔹Gulf Coast margin: $37.55 a barrel, against $12.21
🔹Refining operating income: $ 8.8bn, against $ 1.6bn
It made that on less fuel, throughput fell 3.7% to 2.97m b/d.
The war took barrels out of the system.
Russian refining is down about 1/3.
Gulf product cargoes sit behind Hormuz.
Benchmark US refining margins have more than doubled since the conflict began.
Valero says its refineries ran at “near-record utilization.”
Gulf Coast plants were still running at 96% in October, when they would normally slow for maintenance.
Valero is already booking costs from a fire at Port Arthur.
Shareholders are getting paid.
Adjusted operating cash flow was $ 7.3bn, and 52% of it went back to them.
Refiners are the clearest financial winners of this war.
A peace deal that brings back Russian diesel and reopens Hormuz would also hit them first.
I explain how in my latest article: “Can Diesel End The War In Ukraine?”
Link 👇
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
Got #OIL ?
Interesting presentation $SOIL.TO
Here is a simple summary of $SOIL.TO last acquisition of COREX. And I’m not the one saying it... solana:DvRqC8rbxaFPEz2VdaZ5QMp4VVbi6TFFrusGvhe9pump
Some numbers to think about for Techno stocks in 2026, from Gemini :
2nd part : If a stock market correction of 10% to 20% is specifically triggered by a rotation out of technology stocks (rather than a global economic recession), the market dynamics shift completely. #OOTT Got #OIL or #NATGAS or whatelse ??? Feel free to comments.
After market very active for $BTE , any idea why ?
Last 4 days on the NYSE, trading shares over 20 M !!!!
$SOIL.TO solana:DvRqC8rbxaFPEz2VdaZ5QMp4VVbi6TFFrusGvhe9pump Interesting target, maybe some update coming with good Q3 results !!! GL Longs DYDD it's your money !
$SOIL.TO Analysts need already to update their recent target price !!! No ? DYDD it's your money !!!
Landry Luc retweeted
Saturn ($SOIL.TO ) anuncia la compra de Corex por 302M$, y lo interesante no está tanto en los 7.000 bbl/d de crudo ligero que suma en Manitoba, pegados a su core de SE Saskatchewan, como en el precio al que los compra: 1.6x NOI (aunque tiene trampa con los precios actuales) y un 82% del PDP NPV10. Aún así, mismo modus operando de siempre, comprar por debajo de 2x flujo de caja y por debajo del valor de las reservas ya probadas, cuando lo habitual en el sector es pagar 3-4x. Y es la quinta integración en cinco años.