I gamble on politics and events. DMs open if you want to discuss markets.

Joined March 2020
Lance Uppercut retweeted
MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR RINSE: Full single-post summary for people with normal sleep schedules of the most insane rinsing of bond bots I've seen firsthand, in which PM bonders appear to have lost 7 figures🤯 Scene: Last MLB game of the night (Giants vs Angels) bottom of the 10th inning tied 6-6. The time is ~1:15am EDT - With the bases loaded, Devers hits what is normally a ground rule double. The initial final score shown is an 8-6 Giants win (due to an official MLB scorer error). Video below in thread - Over 13.5 runs, Giants -1.5, and Giants team total o7.5 runs bond to 99c thanks to bots - MLB rules state that a walk off ground rule double cannot score multiple runs and in this scenario counts as a single instead of a double - People start to realize this and insane action comes in to unbond the above markets. Prices go absolutely haywire, touching 1c and 99c multiple times - Kalshi closes and settles the totals & team totals markets while at least one (if not all) of the listed source agencies (MLB / Fox Sports / ESPN) still showed the final score as 8-6. PolyUS does the same for settlement of Giants -1.5 - However, the Kalshi spread (run line) markets remained open longer. Source agencies had then changed the final score to be 7-6. Market volume on the spread balloons from under 12,000 to 5 million (!) between the start of the bottom of the 10th inning and final market settlement - Despite Kalshi settling the total as over 13.5 based on an 8-6 final score, per their CFTC rules, the spread must now settle Angels +1.5 as a win, and it does - PolyInt settles Angels +1.5 as a win as well, rinsing botters there too and appearing to make the total losses for traders assuming a 8-6 final score "multi-millions" across all exchanges - Sportsbooks all appear to have paid out incorrectly initially as well, but it seems all of them have resettled based on the 7-6 final score. CFTC certified exchanges on the other hand don't quite work the same way as sportsbooks. - I fail to make riches since my 1am brain was staring at just the totals market and didn't notice the spread market had stayed open longer until it was too late - I'm aware of some of the big winners, but am yet to hear who specifically were the big losers on this score adjustment - Kalshi volume on the two "incorrectly" settled markets: 1.1mil on o/u 13.5 runs, ~60k on o/u 7.5 Giants team total. No idea or guess on how much was traded on the PolyUS "incorrectly" settled spread market. I would not expect a refund if you had the wrong side of these markets since the settlements appear to have complied with the sites' CFTC rules, but we'll see TLDR: An official MLB score correction post-game made some grinders rich and rinsed others (mostly botters, I assume). Per the sites' CFTC rules, it appears all markets were settled correctly despite being inconsistent settlements
I'm now processing the scale of what happened. If you have a friend with a bonding bot, please check in on their wellbeing because bonders lost MILLIONS, many while enjoying their Friday / sleeping Kalshi spread volume at 1:15am: 11,149 Kalshi spread volume at close: 5 million🤯
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
ESPN's Ramona Shelburne said Rich Paul told her that "for a lot of the time" Paul thought it would be Miami for LeBron "but when you won in a place before, it might not be the same. You want to leave those memories as they are. This appeal of something new is attractive."
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
In the most impressive feat of predicting ever, the traders on @Kalshi successfully predicted with a high degree of certainty who would win survivor before a single episode aired!! They also flawlessly predicted who would get voted out each week (except for 2 weeks where they were wrong at first, but right eventually before the episode aired) and were able to forecast what Jeff would say in each episode! Give it up for your Kalshi traders!!!
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
SecondWindCapital has their WHOLE LIFETIME PNL bet on Khamzat Chimaev to beat Sean Strickland tonight Is this the biggest UFC bet Polymarket has ever seen? They will make $400,000 if Chimaev wins
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
NEW: An Eagles team source claims that Jalen Hurts was the person who called “Four Verticals” on the Eagles last play of the 2026 NFL Playoffs, not Kevin Patullo. “I was like oh my god, this is not happening. We can’t run four verts,” the team source said, via ESPN.
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
This morning we sued Michigan in federal court. Prediction markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, and states like NV, MI, & MA can't evade federal jurisdiction by running to state courts — particularly when these same issues are already before multiple federal courts. Polymarket continues to welcome discussion with regulators, and we appreciate the thoughtful engagement with other states. We fight for the users.
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
Bad actors are currently exploiting a race condition vulnerability between the @Polymarket API & the blockchain to commit a DoS attack against competing LPs This method allows for the rapid removal of orders from the book with each cycle requiring ~50s & less than 1 MATIC to run
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
After months of planning, we're excited to announce 'The Polymarket' is coming to New York City. New York's first free grocery store. We signed the lease. And we donated $1 million to Food Bank For NYC — an organization that changes how our city responds to hunger. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Polymarket's "free grocery store" will not be permanent. It will be a limited time, 5 day pop-up. businessinsider.com/polymarket-kal…
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
Finally out of the Kamala-hole I dug for myself last year ! 🥳🥳🥳
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
Novig
@Novig12 Dec 2025
New Ep of 50c Dollars w/ @eightyhi is LIVE The ICONIC @iabvek joins to break down quantitative election trading and finding edges in politics. youtu.be/ZSlWAd_dPI8?si=mtg_…
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
Tomorrow's news, today.
BREAKING: TIME Person of the Year reportedly leaked.
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My primary race is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets now. Haters gonna hate, but apparently they’re not willing to “put their money where their mouth is.”
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
First Eday precinct in Wayne county reported.
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Lance Uppercut retweeted
Polymarket x Google We're excited to announce Polymarket odds will be integrated into Google. Coming soon.
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Polymarket has acquired QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. This paves the way for us to welcome American traders again. I've waited a long time to say this: Polymarket is coming home 🇺🇸🦅
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8 months ago, on election night, we were on top of the world after Polymarket called the election. 8 days later, the FBI broke down my door at 6am and took all my computers and phones, looking for anything that could imply foul play. While traumatic, it etched the story of Polymarket's accuracy, and the ensuing resistance, into the history of American politics. And today, I'm happy to announce that this chapter of the story is over. After cooperating and engaging, we've been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed. God Bless America 🇺🇸
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One of the most chaotic and corrupted prediction market resolutions happened earlier this week on a $7m market on Polymarket, with the aid of an UMA dispute. Multiple bulwarks to prevent something like this from happening totally failed. Let's call it a “Home Alone Attack.” The attackers waited for the adults to leave, and moved in. But in this version of the story, the idiot Wet Bandits bypassed all the booby traps and robbed the house. The profit was ~$200k for Harry & Marv, plus additional money for the rest of the crew. Long thread⌛
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