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Crop Progress: 🌾 Corn harvest 44%, behind 52% avg 🌱 Soybean harvest 64%, behind 65% avg read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #cropprogress #usda #nass

USDA Weekly Grain Export Inspections #Soybeans🫘: 73.552 mbu #corn🌽: 26.474 mbu #wheat🌾: 8.830 mbu lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #USDA #exports #exportinspections #grains

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/19 #Corn: Dec corn down 1 3/4 overnight, testing this month's 470 low after Friday's close at 474 1/4, the lowest since mid August. Managed money cut its net long 27% to 230,877 contracts with another clear harvest week ahead. A break below 470 opens 460, with resistance at 478 1/4. #Soybeans: Nov beans closed Friday at 1261 1/4, the lowest since August 25, even after 1.87 million tonnes of buying by China and unknown destinations last week. Managed money trimmed its net long by 14,169 contracts to 237,491. Nov beans support at 1250, then 1230, with resistance at 1271. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat unchanged overnight after Friday's close at 660 1/2, the lowest since August 11. Managed money added 3,495 contracts to its net short, now 33,038. US SRW is now competitive with European wheat and longer term support near 650 should slow the decline, with resistance at 675. #Livestock: Dec live cattle closed Friday at 228.32, the highest since August 5, as cash bids in Kansas and Texas rose to 228. Next test is the early August high and 200 day moving average near 229.45, then 232.65. Dec lean hogs closed at 66.90 with managed money at a record net short of 42,088 contracts while national base cash fell $4.61 Friday; resistance at 67.95.

📊 Reports Coming Out This Week (Oct 19–23) Cattle On Feed Friday. Stay informed by subscribing to lakefrontfutures.com/briefin…

Commitments Of Traders Disaggregated Futures & Options Combined Read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin…

🐖 USDA Hog Slaughter Head: 2,553,000 vs Last Week: −2.5% vs Year Ago: −1.4% read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #Hogs #LeanHogs #USDA

🐂 USDA Cattle Slaughter Head: 553,000 vs Last Week: +3.4% vs Year Ago: −2.3% read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #Cattle #LiveCattle #USDA

USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales #corn🌽: 1,122,442 MT #Soybeans🌱: 574,878 MT #wheat🌾: 319,901 MT Corn pace 24.8% of USDA est vs 33.4% 5yr avg Beans at 51.7% vs 43.4% 5yr avg read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #USDA #exports #exportsales #grains

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/16 #Corn: Dec corn down 2 1/4 overnight at a new low for the week, with open interest down 5,434. Brazil's first official new crop estimate put corn near 148 million tonnes, up 2.4%, and the International Grains Council sees world production up 6 million tonnes to 1.307 billion. A Dec corn close below 479 would be the first close below the 200 day moving average since early August, with longer term support near 460. #Soybeans: Nov beans down 4 1/4 overnight at a new 7 week low after the first close below the 50 day moving average in more than 2 months. Nearly 1.1 million tonnes bought by China and unknown destinations this week failed to lift prices, and Brazil's crop is estimated at 181.6 million tonnes. Nov beans support at 1250, then 1230. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat down 9 3/4 overnight at a new 2 month low after beneficial southern Plains rains, with open interest down 8,327. Western Australia production was raised to 10.9 million tonnes from 10.0. Dec Chicago wheat support at 650, the 200 day moving average, with the early August low at 645. #Livestock: Dec live cattle closed at 227.25, a 9 week high, as cash bids of 226 developed in Kansas and Texas, with resistance at the 200 day moving average at 229.30. Boxed beef cutout fell $2.52 to $373.98. Dec lean hogs reversed higher off new contract lows to close at 66.57, while the lean hog index fell to 75.75, lowest since Feb 16, and pork cutout dropped $1.98 to $77.69.

🐄 USDA Dairy Products Sales 🧈 Butter: $1.36/lb (↓1.0¢) 🧀 Cheddar: $1.43/lb (↓2.7¢) 🥛 NDM: $1.97/lb (↑3.3¢) 💧 Dry Whey: 72.0¢/lb (↑3.8¢) read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin…

Ethanol Production Production: 1.065 mb/day Weekly Total: 7.455 mil bbl Stocks: 23.942 mil bbl Corn Used: 105.42 vs 107.75 needed read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #Ethanol #EIA

EIA Energy Stocks Refinery Rate: 93.5% Crude Oil: 415.6 (-8.6M wk, -8.2M yr) Gasoline: 208.3 (+3.5M wk, -10.6M yr) Distillate: 102.6 (-2.5M wk, -14.4M yr) ULSD: 91.6 (-2.2M wk, -15.0M yr) read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #CrudeOil #EIA

Weekly Natural Gas Storage: 3,567 Bcf ↑ +67 Bcf on the week ↓ −143 vs last year (−3.9%) ↑ +45 vs 5-yr average (+1.3%) read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #NaturalGas #EIA

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/15 #Corn: Dec corn down 3/4 overnight and holding 200 day support after a 480 3/4 close, with open interest down 1,791. Rain and cool temperatures across Nebraska, Iowa and the Great Lakes will slow harvest into the weekend, and private analysts cut the EU corn crop to 44.9 million tonnes from 46.2. A Dec corn close below 479 invites more selling, with hedge selling expected on rallies toward 490 to 500. #Soybeans: Nov beans down 4 overnight at a 6 week low after China's flash purchase of roughly 8 cargoes failed to spark buying. Soybean open interest fell 5,941 and Dec bean oil has fallen below last month's low. A Nov beans close below 1270 is a technical failure with next support at 1250, and September NOPA crush is expected at 203.7 million bushels this afternoon. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat down 1 1/4 and Dec KC wheat down 2 overnight after 5 to 10 inches of rain in central Oklahoma replenished southern Plains soil moisture. Chicago wheat open interest rose 7,792 and Ukraine's October grain exports have reached only 38% of potential. Dec Chicago wheat support near 649 is the next downside target with resistance at 681. #Livestock: Dec live cattle closed lower for a 3rd straight session at 225.12 with no cash trade reported this week, while boxed beef cutout rose $1.35 to $376.50. Dec live cattle support at 224.60, resistance at 228.10 then 229.10. Dec lean hogs closed at a new contract low of 66.07 as open interest rose more than 3,800, with the lean hog index at 75.94, lowest since Feb 20, pork cutout $79.67 and next support at 63.90.

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/14 #Corn: Dec corn down 1 1/4 overnight, holding the 200 day near 479 after closing at 482 3/4. Harvest is 33% done vs 39% average and conditions rose 2 to 56% good to excellent, while a COFCO executive said US corn is not competitive for China. A Dec corn close below 479 opens the August lows at 460, with hedge selling expected on rallies toward 490 to 500. #Soybeans: Nov beans up 7 overnight on reports China bought 8 to 10 cargoes of US beans this week. Harvest is 46% done vs 50% average with Iowa and Nebraska nearly 30% behind, and EPA plans to reallocate 100% of small refinery exemption volumes, a positive for biofuel demand. Nov beans are holding 50 day support at 1272 but have stalled under 1299: a break below 1270 weakens the outlook. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat down 3 3/4 and Dec KC wheat down 5 1/4 overnight as beneficial rains move across Oklahoma and Kansas. Winter wheat planting is 51% done vs 58% average, and Ukraine's wheat exports are seen capped near 11 million tonnes vs 14 million last year. Dec Chicago wheat support at 648 is the next downside target with resistance at 679, but an EU ban on Russian grain transit would be a bullish catalyst. #Livestock: Dec live cattle posted a 2nd straight slightly lower close at 226.370, but intraday breaks are not carrying through, with resistance at the 200 day at 229.10 and support at 225.00. Boxed beef cutout down 41 cents to $375.15. Dec lean hogs closed at 68.020 with the lean hog index down to 76.51, lowest since Feb 20, pork cutout down $3.50 to $80.39 and support at 66.20.

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/12 #Corn: Dec corn steady after Friday’s severe break touched limit down on record daily volume, taking out the 2019 high: USDA raised yield more than expected, jumped carry in 400 million bushels and pushed ending stocks near the highest guess, with Nebraska’s 11 BPA yield jump raising eyebrows. Fund selling was estimated at a massive 62,500 contracts, yet COT still shows a large net long of 317,359. Next major support is the 460 area: resistance heavy above 490, with hedge selling on every rally. #Soybeans: Nov beans down 9 1/4 overnight after Friday’s late rebound failed to follow through: the report had nothing for the bulls beyond tighter bean oil supplies, and carryout tightening worries are gone. Brazil is planting at a record 20% pace vs the 11.55% average, and managed money added to a 251,660 contract net long even as prices hit a 6 week low. China needs to step up in a big way with the dollar near 1 1/2 year highs: otherwise next support is 1250. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat up 1 1/2 after Friday’s 2 month low, dragged more by corn’s limit down spill than its own slightly bearish numbers. Trump said Saturday Russia and Ukraine were set to agree on a ceasefire, unconfirmed by Moscow, while the 3 Baltic states formally proposed an EU ban on Russian grain transit that would cost Russia its Baltic ports. After a month long slide, the 200 day near 648 is the magnet: risk and reward on new shorts looks limited, and wheat may be the first grain to bottom. #Livestock: Dec live cattle closed Friday at a one month high on above average volume with open interest up 1,700: a real breakout, helped by cheap feedgrains, with the 200 day at 229.10 and retracement resistance at 230.32 the next targets. Southern bids at 226 were passed on Saturday. Dec hogs closed at new contract lows and the lowest close of the year: production is outrunning demand with the kill up big and the index at its lowest since late February, so the market is pricing down to force exports against a strong dollar. Next support 66.20.

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October WASDE 🌽Corn Yield: 181.2 Harvest Area: 88.5 Production: 16,034 Carryout: 1,849 🫘Soybeans Yield: 53.1 Harvest Area: 85.9 Production: 4,562 Carryout: 315 Full briefing: lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #supplyanddemand #usda

Lakefront Morning Briefing 10/9 #Corn: Dec corn up 3/4, sitting mid range into the 11 AM WASDE: yield is expected at 177.8 BPA, down from 178.5, with ending stocks rising to 1.694 billion bushels. Below 177 sparks a bullish reaction, above 178.5 triggers long liquidation, and sell stops wait under this week’s 495 low. Today’s close matters more than the 11 AM knee jerk: fundamental support 475 to 485, resistance near 520, and fading the extremes is the play. #Soybeans: Nov beans up 6 1/4 ahead of the report: yield expected at 52.9 BPA with stocks at 309 million bushels. Above 53 invites heavy selling, closer to 52 gives a bullish jolt, and China still needs roughly 10 million more tonnes by year end to hit its 25 million commitment with the dollar rising. A friendly reaction draws hedge selling off a historically fast harvest week: a 20 to 30 cent rally is a selling opportunity, support at the 50 day at 1266 then 1250. #Wheat: Dec Chicago wheat steady with no surprise expected: stocks seen rising to 722 million bushels. The EU model trimmed next week’s southern Plains rain, Ukraine hit 2 more Russian refineries overnight, and Lithuania’s PM calls Russian grain transit unacceptable and plans to propose an EU wide ban. Wheat follows corn and beans today: 670 key support, a breakout over 707 triggers fund short covering. #Livestock: Dec live cattle bounced off intraday weakness a 2nd straight day with buyers stepping up on breaks: higher cash today could spark new buying, with the September highs at 225.50 the trigger for a larger rally and yesterday’s low landing right on 222.25 support. Light northern cash traded 218. Dec hogs tested the 67.97 contract lows as cutout sank to $79.36, a 3 1/2 year low within $0.70 of the May 2023 bottom: prior probes to new lows have bounced on the record fund short, but the trend stays down, next support 66.20.

USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales #corn🌽: 769,468 MT #Soybeans🌱: 549,377 MT #wheat🌾: 451,562 MT Corn pace 23.5% of USDA est vs 31.7% 5yr avg Beans at 50.4% vs 41.1% 5yr avg read more at lakefrontfutures.com/briefin… #USDA #exports #exportsales #grains