L/S HF investor. Writing a GARP and Value oriented SS.
Joined March 2025
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Took a look at our first 10 posts:
Our ideas have beaten the S&P 500 by an average of 34.2% over the holding period (median: 8.9%). 6 / 10 outperformed, 8/10 in + territory.
Idea #11 just went out to paid subscribers. Subscribe to get it before it goes to everyone in a week.
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Thanks @joinyellowbrick and @GilesCapital for featuring earlier write-ups.
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New post in the usual spot for paid subscribers.
Super cheap compounder growing at
12% and trading at 10x ‘27 FCF. We think there is 120% upside over the next few years good for a 24% IRR. Company earns a ROIC >40% with a long runway for continued growth.
open.substack.com/pub/ltvres…
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$VEEV with a super stellar Q2 now up 32% YTD after our write up in Jan. Paywall now off for all. High quality compounder that was oversold on competitive and AI risks. More room to run. Cheers!
open.substack.com/pub/ltvres…
First post of '26. (preview with paywall)
$VEEV is a high quality VMS compounder in a >25% drawdown on competitive fears in ~20% of the biz. Revenue growth is durable in our view & FCF margins are exceptional @ 40%. New AI product launches should re-rate the equity in '26.
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Thread on $VSEC
The standalone business grew organic revenue 15% in Q1, well above the HSD industry rate. Due to transformative M&A, engine aftermarket is now >50% of revenue.
Comps trade >17.5x, at 17.5x my ‘28 EBITDA estimate of $500m we are looking at 60% upside | 20% IRR
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Further, $VSEC hasn’t even begun to crack into the diesel Jet fuel powered engine market currently being used to power the AI ecosystem. Entry into the that market could provide an additional growth lever above my underwritten assumptions. Full write-up and price framing below:
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New post: VSE Corp ($VSEC)
Pure-play aviation aftermarket compounder. 15% organic growth, margins inflecting from 16% to 20%+ due to M&A, and the stock is down 24% on deal digestion.
60% upside to ~$275 from $172 by YE 2028.
Full writeup 👇
ltvresearch.substack.com/p/v…
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Houthis entering the Iran conflict, moving the conflict to the Red Sea. JP Morgan commodities team says that 5m bpd additional is now at risk and this “could add $20/bbl to oil prices” basically overnight.
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New post in the normal spot on a small-cap healthcare compounder: $PRVA
Asset-light physician enablement platform, no clinic capex, multi-payer, and a net-cash balance sheet. I think this can compound FCF per share >20% with a credible path to 70%+ upside
open.substack.com/pub/ltvres…
Great Q & clean setup for $PRVA. Stock likes it +10% to ~$25. Could have bought it @$21 last week.
‘26/‘27 setup:
$150m EBITDA in ‘26 +20% guide
$120m FCF 80% conv
>$185m EBITDA in ‘27
$150m FCF
$600m cash by YE ‘26 for M&A
At 25x / 30x FCF looking at $33.5 / $40 PTs w/o M&A
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Nice AI earnings summary here for those who love the details:
finsee.ai/earnings/prva/2025…
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