
Founder @trylaurence | Researcher @ Jump Trading
Joined February 2019
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We're introducing TasteBench, a new standard to measure Research Taste on real world ML tasks.
Existing benchmarks have limited datasets and eval data ultimately becomes part of training data. In TasteBench, we continuously generate new ML tasks on OOS data no model has trained on.
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Introducing Catalyst.
What do you believe? How would you trade on it?
You notice data centers are popping-up everywhere, gold will skyrocket, or just know that Labubus will go out of fashion.
Catalyst researches your ideas, builds the optimal strategy, monitors events, and executes trades. Autonomously.
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
I’m joining @ycombinator as a General Partner.
YC is a homecoming for every GP. All of us were previously YC founders, and lived the journey that we support founders through every day. Our alma mater taught us the lessons that we pass on.
My founder path was infinitely harder than I thought it would be. We hit incredible highs and brutal lows. We came within a few months of zero runway. The YC mantras kept me going: make something people want, and don’t die. Over the course of my companies, we touched thousands of lives: employing people in almost every US state (Alaska still evades me!), and teaching STEM to students from every walk of life.
Now, I’ve had the privilege of working with founders who are tackling some of the hardest problems today, including defense, space, energy, and manufacturing. We’re also entering an era of diffusing AI across businesses of all sizes, and founders are bringing these tools into their old workplaces and new customers to make work better.
Finally, I’m particularly interested in our work at YC to partner closely with the government to make sure technology serves everyone. Our Startup Industrial Base conference yesterday was the start of this, with more to come. Founders are the backbone of American innovation and core to the future of our country and economy.
Thank you to the YC partnership for believing in me, and the YC founders for trusting me.
There’s never been a better time to make something people want.
there is still a long way to go before LLMs are useful for genuinely hard research tasks
we let GPT autoresearch Deep Learning alphas on crypto perp data and find that GPT:
- doesn't explore parameters well, only minimal changes across iterations
- has poor research taste, proposes experiments like three almost identical learning rates (wtf)
struggles with intelligent evals, ie judging training curves which has no binary criteria
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
The FTC just announced it was suing Amazon for misrepresenting its ads auctions.
My job is fully understanding Amazon Ads bidding and and its granular auction dynamics; I put together a piece that explains exactly what's going on with this lawsuit
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
We are releasing the first liquid way to trade Anthropic.
For far too long, frontier assets have only been accessible to a select few. We are here to bring them to the masses.
Introducing EntropyIO. We’ve raised $14M led by Ribbit Capital and a $40M HYPE stake to build both improved and entirely new markets, the first of which are live on Hyperliquid today.
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
I have no loyalty to any AI. I am a AI whore.
If a new AI comes out offering me 10% more, it can have it's way with me
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Your Amazon ROAS and TACOS are the biggest bottleneck to scaling to high 8 figures in revenue and beyond.
ROAS and TACOS are really easy and powerful diagnostic metrics: they can quickly tell you when something is definitely going wrong.
But when you're trying to figure out how to get things right, blindly optimizing for ROAS or TACOS is the wrong strategy: if you wanted the best TACOS, you should spend $0 on ads to guarantee a 0% TACOS, and if you wanted the best looking ROAS you should only spend on branded terms and cannibalize your organic sales.
This is why it's crucial to ground your goals in your contribution margins and steer clear of target ROAS.
The brands that scale are the brands that understand $200,000 in net profit at a 1.5x ROAS is more desirable than a 8x ROAS and $50,000 in net profit.
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Here's how I scaled a neobank GTM from 0-60,000 customers in 4 years. Founders are DM’ing me asking how they can grow their neobank, here’s the GTM plan:
I’m not going to list 100 channels. I’m breaking this down into: top of funnel, middle of funnel, and bottom of funnel.
- Top of funnel: Ads/acquisition channels (FB/Google/Affiliate programs/WoM, partners, etc).
- Middle of funnel: Your website that converts visitors to leads, and your signup flow that converts leads to customers.
- Bottom of funnel: Turning customers (account opened) into active customers (they are at the WOW moment, they are using your product). Just because someone opened an account does not mean they are a customer. A customer in a neobank has money on the account, is transacting and using the product. Avoid vanity metrics.
I am just focusing on B2B below, but a lot is relevant for D2C neobanks as well.
TOP OF FUNNEL
1. Meta ads don’t work for B2B fintech neobanks because Meta ads are mobile optimized. You can’t sign your business up with UBO information and company formation documents on mobile. You need to sign up on desktop.
2. That limits you to desktop channels. The best desktop channels are Google ads, SEO, word of mouth, referral, and affiliate programs. There are a ton of guides for all of these except affiliate programs. So let’s focus on affiliate programs.
3. Affiliate programs are the most important acquisition channel for fintechs (think: mortgages, credit cards, bank accounts, loans, etc). Affiliate programs were 50% of our acquisition at Penta, and 50% of any other fintech’s paid advertising stack during the first wave of fintech.
4. I’m surprised that wave 2 neobanks aren’t using affiliates as much. Affiliate programs are equivalent to NerdWallet, The Points Guy, and similar websites that show you “the top ten business bank accounts” ranked 1-10. The first ranked neobank pays the most to be there, it’s that simple. That’s what we used as our main acquisition channel.
5. This is the highest intent paid channel because its success is based on a) the user is actively searching for an account b) when they land on your website your H1 should resonate with them c) the affiliate only gets paid if they convert. And if you have a bad funnel, the affiliate will replace you with one that has a great funnel as they’ll pay more. It’s as simple as that.
MIDDLE OF FUNNEL
This is your website, and the most important part of your GTM stack. The more optimized your website, the more customers you’ll get.
1. What do you want the visitors to do? Putting a CTA saying “Sign up now” as the first thing they see on the hero does not work. You want to educate them, answer all their questions, and then ask them to convert or hop on a call.
2. The better educated your leads are = the more time they spend on the website = the higher the chance they’ll turn into a customer.
3. 1’d bet anyone $10,000 that the leads who convert into customers on their website have spent the most time on the website, compared to those that did not convert. Time spent on the website is directly correlated to the quality of the lead. Optimize for education.
4. As an example, let’s say you have 100K visitors per month; if you improve your visitor to lead conversion rate by 1%, you can double your acquisition. It’s THAT easy. But most founders just focus on ads and forget about the funnel. That is a waste of pipeline.
Stop doubling down on top of funnel. Focus on middle of funnel.
Ok, the visitor has turned into a lead, now what?
5. At Penta, we had a 50–60% conversion rate from lead to customer. Over 50%. That’s insane. The way we did that is by focusing on the experience.
6. Optimize your onboarding funnel. A bad KYC experience is a choice. Analyze the top 10% of customer support/compliance requests in the onboarding funnel. Add those questions to the funnel so users can answer them themselves, so that your support isn’t drowning in requests, so there isn’t a drop off, and so that the user can have a smooth journey.
7. Use Hotjar to see where users are dropping off. Fix it. Maybe it’s a word that doesn’t make sense, maybe a description, maybe the buttons are hard to find, maybe there’s a bug.
Simple math here: improve conversion by 10% and you have now acquired a multiple of what you would normally convert per day. If you convert 10/100, and you now convert 20%, you’ve doubled your acquisition.
BOTTOM OF FUNNEL
Once the account is opened, it does not mean that they are a customer.
1. Get them to the WOW moment ASAP. Get them to add money to their account. This is user activation. Just because you opened up X accounts does not mean they are active. Make them active.
2. Analyze what the users who are active do. What behaviors can we replicate?
3. Within what time frame do they upload money? It’s typically within 4 days of the account being opened, or you lose them (this is true across all SaaS from what I’ve seen). Send them emails, call them, incentivize them within that period.
4. How much money do the active users upload? Make it easy to send money from one bank to your neobank (eg: Plaid, card payment). The moment they make an “investment” into your new neobank, they are more likely to stay.
Issue them a card, get them to use it for a subscription (10% cash back for 30 days). This then equals retention.
5. Your CAC should be calculated on an active user level, not an account opened level, because all accounts opened are not active and therefore don’t generate revenue. Therefore, your CAC is much higher than you have calculated. Be honest with yourself.
Ending thoughts:
While my examples are focused on neobanking, the same is true for any SaaS product, enterprise sales, healthcare, etc. Your funnels are your highest leverage acquisition channels. Not your “marketing/advertising channels”.
I’d also suggest reading about AARRR.
What am I missing?
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
I founded Penta one of Europe's largest neobanks during the first wave of neobanking in 2016. We launched in 2018, and went from 0-60k customers, and a 9 figure acquisition 4 years later.
Here’s the playbook for how to build a neobank in the 2nd wave of neobanking:
From 0-1.
1. It’s all about distribution. If you don’t have an unfair distribution advantage you will lose. Advertising is not an unfair advantage.
2. Focus on a niche. Build a monopoly in that niche. Expand to other niches.
At Penta, we focused on companies that were incorporating, they needed a specific type of bank account. We made signing up take 10min, compared to 4 weeks. That was our initial PMF wedge.
3. CAC/payback period is critical. If you’re not paying your CAC back within a reasonable time frame (<12 months max) you’re going to hemorrhage cash.
4. Engagement and retention is your #1 metric. 10% is average retention/activation for D2C neobanks.
<25% for B2B neobanks. That is garbage. Users who are active are your real number of customers, not the ones who signed up and are dormant.
Optimize for >50% retention defined as a minimum of 2 transactions per month.
5. Your onboarding funnel is your most important acquisition channel.
It’s not only about top of funnel. Mid and end of funnel are probably more important if you have top of funnel even slightly even figured out.
The whole company should be focused on optimizing the funnel from visitor -> lead -> customer -> active customer. Read about AARRR.
6. Churn should be below 2%. Card programs enable high retention. Customers don’t switch banks, when’s the last time you switched banks? Make sure that aligns with your metrics.
7. Focus on the power users, then find more of them.
Break user engagement groups into 4 buckets, 25% least engaged, to the 25% most engaged/power users.
Focus only on the top 2 buckets while trying to convert the bottom 2 into the top 2 buckets. What behaviors do the power users have that the other buckets don’t?
Force that UX and those behaviors on the other 3 buckets, which makes more power users.
8. Focus on B2B niches instead of B2C, unless you have a unique problem in consumer you’re solving which enables a low CAC, better distribution, and better economics.
Most don’t. B2C is typically full of fraud and typically makes no money. FX worked in the first wave of neobanking (Wise/Revolut) but isn’t a USP anymore. Find a niche.
9. Get to scale in 1 geography. Not multiple.
From 1-10.
I’ve seen what a 0-1 looks like, and then what 1-10 looks like.
When companies hit scale, most plateau (ie: Brex, N26). Others like Revolut turn into $100B+ outcomes.
10. Your best new customers are your existing customers. Make your current customers happier. That also means higher NRR and ARPU.
11. Neobanks are card companies + deposits.
That’s what you do. Increase card spend which equals retention which equals higher deposits. Launch treasury products as a result. High yield keeps customers, and steals customers away from others. Steal customers.
12. Don’t get into lending until you’ve crossed a large number of deposits. Lending only works for your top 10% of customers, and only 20-30% of those will actually want a loan.
When launching a lending program, don’t lose money. Focus on quality.
13. Fire the bottom 10% of performers. Your company will swell and reduce speed and therefore quality. Keep the team sharp. This is a silent killer.
14. Don’t hire for experience, hire for hunger.
15. Move fast, test things, and fail fail fail.
The more you fail the more you’ll succeed. Neobanks that become large become comfortable and they stop launching products that fail. You need to fail if you’re gonna launch a breakthrough. Look at Revolut, they have 20 projects running at once, maybe 1-2 will survive but they’ll be a home run.
16. Most importantly, don’t focus on the competition. Focus on your customers. Talk to your customers every single day. You’re more likely to die of suicide than murder, so forget what others are launching or doing. Focus on your customers.
If you’re building a neobank, let me know what I’m missing!
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Replying to @Aella_Girl
"Listen guys, We can't afford her, but we can recreate her, in the aggregate."
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Ads drive growth. Plain and simple. Laurence knows everything about your spend, performance, incrementality, and more.
For more insights, check out the full podcast: LINK IN COMMENTS
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Incredibly excited to announce we will be suing Meta for this!
@elonmusk if you want to fund the lawsuit my DMs are open
forum.market
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Big news: @trylaurence is now a media company.
Today, we're launching The Backend, a podcast dedicated to sharing e-commerce founder and investor stories.
Our core business stays the same: we're still building autonomous full-funnel advertising, starting with Amazon. But we have an opportunity here to build something bigger and provide so much more value to the community through our platform, and I'm so so excited to share this with you.
Our first guest is incredible. Aaron Apple was the first believer in our vision for Laurence, and I'm honored that I get to share his story: he bootstrapped his Amazon FBA business to a $40 million exit starting with just $12,000 in cash, and he's been an incredible mentor and role model to me.
Our episode is live right now! Check us out on:
- Youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=Zm-pgG-c…
- Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/13n…
We're just getting started.
Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
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Shotgun-Charlie (GG) retweeted
Proud to announce we've raised $5.8M in total funding for @trylaurence, the hedge fund for ads.
We founded Laurence with the key insight that we could automate performance marketing the same way quant firms systematically trade. Our system autonomously executes Amazon ad spend for fourteen brands, and our models drive a 15-40% improvement in total net profit after margin and ad spend.
Stay tuned, we have a really, REALLY fun announcement coming for you all next week ;)



















