kind of funny that josh's argument basically breaks down to: "I think it's in our national interest if we don't tariff the stuff that I personally buy, but we place tariffs on my business competitors." yea, no shit dude. and i wish I had a million dollars to buy a home

It’s jarring to hear extremely thoughtful people cheer for US tariffs, and implore the Europeans to deploy similar policies, because they want their children to grow up to be engineers and not TikTokers. Of course we want that! But tariffs won’t achieve that goal for at least two reasons: 1) the West doesn’t want to onshore most of the types of manufacturing that blanket tariffs will incentivize 2) while tariffs are effectively a tax on US citizens, they tax the *wrong* citizens. Here’s the core problem: the U.S. needs to deploy industrial policy at heroic scale. But if the U.S. were to expand its balance sheet at present it would accelerate inflation because there is insufficient industrial capacity to absorb the excess demand. So we need to reduce demand from one sector to make room (fiscal space) for excess demand from direct government investment. The top 10% of income earners represent half of *discretionary* spending. These earners also own a disproportionate amount of assets, and have high sensitivity to wealth effects in both directions. We need to take action to mediate demand from this group. This can be achieved by a) lowering interest rates (every dollar of interest is rent paid to this cohort) b) raise progressive tax rates in high earners and c) deflate asset prices. Don’t come at me with the argument that a) and c) are mutually exclusive unless you can explain Japan from 1990-2020. But if you don’t like my rates + asset prices levers then fine we can just raise taxes further. Whatever, we just need to constrain demand. Once we’ve freed up fiscal space, we need to unleash the most expansive, visionary, mission-based industrial policy and credit guidance initiative since the Space Race, Marshall Plan, and the New Deal. If we’re smart, we engage with our traditional allies to make it a global vision, to demonstrate the long-term viability and relative attractiveness of our Western democratic values. Let’s stop taxing the poor to punish China. Instead, tax life’s lottery winners to underwrite investments in the future of the West. Reclaim fiscal space. Mobilize industry. Inspire the world.