@Kintsugixyz

Capital, commerce, and culture.

kintsugi.xyz
Joined March 2021
  • Tweets92
  • Following866
  • Followers57
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rangebound BTC, rising dominance, and bleeding Alts since 5/21 (scenario 2) despite pockets of outperformance: HYPE, MKR, JTO, USELESS, most Alts struggling vs BTC next major risk on regime likely triggered by a BTC breakout to $120k+
Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz21 May 2025
Since the last drop in BTC dominance (ending 5/13), Alts have struggled to keep pace as BTC climbed to its highest daily close what's next? 1/ BTC breakout w decreasing dominance 2/ rangebound btc w rising dominance 3/ BTC breakdown w rising dominance 4/ something else?
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Since the last drop in BTC dominance (ending 5/13), Alts have struggled to keep pace as BTC climbed to its highest daily close what's next? 1/ BTC breakout w decreasing dominance 2/ rangebound btc w rising dominance 3/ BTC breakdown w rising dominance 4/ something else?
Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz9 May 2025
BTC.d returns to May 9th level when BTC started this move from $75k. Since then OTHERS moved a similar magnitude as BTC (44% vs 38%). On the lookout for continuation down in BTC.d and OTHERS up if BTC holds at or above this level. Otherwise, Alt strength could be short lived.
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BTC.d returns to May 9th level when BTC started this move from $75k. Since then OTHERS moved a similar magnitude as BTC (44% vs 38%). On the lookout for continuation down in BTC.d and OTHERS up if BTC holds at or above this level. Otherwise, Alt strength could be short lived.
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is the decoupling in the room with us now? since Jan 23rd (3 months ago): BTC down 10% NASDAQ down 14% S&P down 11%
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8 NASDAQ drawdowns of larger magnitude than current one since GFC 15 yrs ago
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where next?
Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz29 Mar 2025
✅ next target $87k $80k first?
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✅ next target $87k $80k first?
Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz28 Mar 2025
liquidation wick incoming
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liquidation wick incoming
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memecoin utility in the degen casino BTC up 2.5% SOL up 3.5% MKR up 7.5% FARTCOIN up 16.4%
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recent drawdown of similar magnitude to drawdowns during feb to oct '24 range
Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz25 Feb 2025
BTC closed down more than current level on 49 out of 219 days during Feb-Oct ‘24 range $72k would be a 34% drawdown from current range high and comparable to max drawdown in Feb-Oct ‘24 range; Currently down 21% from range high
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BTC closed down more than current level on 49 out of 219 days during Feb-Oct ‘24 range $72k would be a 34% drawdown from current range high and comparable to max drawdown in Feb-Oct ‘24 range; Currently down 21% from range high
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shorter consolidation ranges in 2021 bull market but similar drawdown magnitude and frequency
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the corrections just werent as deep back in 2017
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what comes next, yellow box or green box? red box?
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Alt market drawdown relative to prior rolling 365 day periods we spent 4 months last year (july to nov) over 55% below recent highs tbd how long we spend in that zone this time
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Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This new piece explores where market cap dominance is heading if this cycle rhymes with prior ones. mirror.xyz/research.kintsugi…

Dominance

Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new...

paragraph.com
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trees dont grow to the sky don't confuse rotating liquidity from a cycle duration trend create a trading plan and stick to it better to take profits and leave something on the table than to roundtrip multiples of your initial position
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Wrote an op-ed in @Nasdaq today It's about the future of #Bitcoin yield Quick summary below 👇 nasdaq.com/articles/upgradin…

Upgrading Bitcoin's Reserve Asset Status: On-Chain Yield Products

nasdaq.com
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Currency Debasement 101: Governments are unable to resist the temptation to create free money for themselves. feat. prior work and insights from @LynAldenContact, @timevalueofbtc, @CryptoHayes, @ptj_official, @HorizonKinetics, et al mirror.xyz/kintsugi.eth/d8Zx…
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Since 2021, BTC has been a high beta (3-5x more volatile) proxy for USD liquidity. 🫡@CryptoHayes Even on longer time horizons there is an undeniable relationship between BTC and the global money supply. 🫡@dylanleclair
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TLDR; Don’t fight the fed. Be careful when USD liquidity decreases or crabs sideways, as it is now. And be sure to have some BTC in your portfolio when the government starts creating free money for itself again. nfa.
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