KickOff

Under 3.5 goals, 81%. There have been under 3.5 goals in 18 consecutive Arsenal league games, and that's the spine of this call. Away from home it's the same story: under 3.5 goals in 8 consecutive Arsenal away league games. Liverpool aren't dragging games the other way either. There have been under 3.5 goals in 6 consecutive Liverpool league games, and at Anfield their last 20 home league games stayed under that line 80% of the time. The defending is where it settles. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 20 away league games, so half the time they leave nothing at all for the other side. Across all league games they've conceded just 0.7 a game. My model expects Liverpool to score 1 goal and Arsenal 1.2, which is a proper contest, but nothing like a shootout. It's a big number, not a promise. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Arsenal this hard to break down, I can't see Liverpool supplying enough of them. Under 3.5 goals, 81%. #LFC #AFC #PremierLeague

7 of 8 calls right on Saturday. Chelsea 2–0 Man Utd: 2+ goals in the game · 86% ✅ Bournemouth 2–0 Leeds: 3 goals or fewer · 83% ✅ Brentford 2–0 Nottm Forest: 2+ goals in the game · 80% ✅ Coventry 3–1 Sunderland: 2+ goals in the game · 82% ✅ Hull 2–2 Ipswich: 2+ goals in the game · 81% ✅ Man City 0–1 Brighton: 2+ goals in the game · 90% ❌ Tottenham 2–0 Palace: 2+ goals in the game · 79% ✅ Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham: 3 goals or fewer · 79% ✅ #PremierLeague

Under 3.5 goals, 79%. There have been under 3.5 goals in 9 consecutive Fulham away league games, and that's where this starts. Their last 20 away league games stayed under that line 80% of the time, so this isn't a side that brings chaos on its travels. The goals from their end are scarce as well. Fulham haven't scored more than 1 goal in 9 consecutive away league games, and they've failed to score in 9 of their last 20 away. Against Villa it's the same story: Fulham haven't scored more than 1 goal in 8 consecutive away league meetings with them. Villa's home league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 70% of their last 20, so Villa Park isn't usually a goal fest either. The model expects Villa to score 1.3 goals and Fulham 1.1, which reads like a decent contest rather than a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Fulham bringing so little away, Villa would have to carry nearly the whole lot themselves. I'd need convincing. Under 3.5 goals, 79%. #AVFC #FFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 79%. Spurs have conceded in 17 of their last 20 home league games, and that's the bit that makes this one. A side that leaks that often at home doesn't tend to host quiet games, and there have been over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 at home. Palace bring their end of it. They've scored in 13 of their last 20 away league games, so they travel with a goal in them more often than not. Their own back door isn't much tighter: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away, which hands Spurs a way in too. Spurs have scored in 16 of their last 20 at home, so they're not short of a goal on their own patch either. The model expects Tottenham to score 1.9 goals and Palace 1.1, and that reads as a game with something at both ends. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. With both sides scoring and conceding like that, I'd need a lot of convincing. Over 1.5 goals, 79%. #THFC #CPFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 90%. Man City have scored in 22 consecutive home league games, and that's half the job done before Brighton get off the bus. City have also scored in 18 consecutive league meetings with Brighton, so this fixture doesn't stop the run either. At home, City's last 20 league games went over 1.5 goals 95% of the time. That's a ground where quiet afternoons don't happen. Brighton bring their share. They've scored in 15 of their last 20 away league games, and they've conceded in 13 of them, so there's traffic both ways when they travel. There have been over 1.5 goals in 9 consecutive Brighton league games. The model expects City to score 2.2 goals and Brighton 1.8. That's two sides expected to score, not one side holding on. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 11 league meetings between these two as well. It's a big number, but it's not a promise. It loses on only one goal in the game, and with both sides scoring that often, I can't see it. Over 1.5 goals, 90%. #MCFC #BHAFC #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, 81%. Ipswich have conceded in 8 consecutive league games, and that's the bit I keep coming back to. Two promoted sides, so a lot of this form is last season's division, but the pattern is plain enough. On the road it's the same story: Ipswich have conceded in 5 consecutive away league games, and in 14 of their last 20 away. Their attack travels too. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 away league games, 80%, so they're rarely a side that goes home without one. Hull do their share at the KCOM, scoring in 15 of their last 20 home league games. Ipswich's away league games have gone over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20, which tells you what kind of afternoon they usually bring. The model expects Hull to score 1.8 goals and Ipswich 1.3, so there's something at both ends. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none, and with Ipswich leaking like that I don't see it. Over one point five goals, 81%. #HCFC #ITFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 82%. There have been over 1.5 goals in 8 consecutive Sunderland away league games, and that's the heart of it. Sunderland's away games have gone over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20. That's a side whose trips rarely stay tidy. The back door is the big part. Sunderland have conceded in 18 of their last 20 away league games, so Coventry shouldn't need much luck to get their end going. Coventry are up this season, so their home numbers are mostly last season's division. Even so, they scored in 14 of their last 20 home league games, and those home games went over 1.5 goals in 70% of them. Sunderland bring something too. They scored in 13 of their last 20 away league games, so this isn't all on Coventry. The model expects Coventry to score 1.6 goals and Sunderland 1.6. That's an even game with goals at both ends, not one side sitting in. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. With Sunderland conceding away the way they do, and finding the net themselves often enough, I don't see it staying that quiet. It's not a promise, though. Over 1.5 goals, 82%. #PUSB #SAFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 80%. Nottingham Forest have scored in 14 consecutive away league games, and that's where this call starts. A side that keeps finding the net on the road gives you half the job done before kick-off. Brentford supply the other half. They've scored in 10 consecutive league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games. That's a home side that rarely draws a blank. The games themselves tell the same story. There have been over 1.5 goals in 13 consecutive Brentford league games, and in 14 consecutive Forest away league games. Neither run suggests a quiet scoreboard. Forest's door hasn't been shutting either. They've conceded in 6 consecutive away league games, so Brentford's scoring has somewhere to go. The model expects Brentford to score 1.8 goals and Forest 1.2. That's a game with goals at both ends in it, not one starved of them. The meeting itself backs it up. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two. It's a high number, but it's not a promise. For this to lose you'd need one goal or none, and with both sides scoring this regularly I don't see it. Over 1.5 goals, 80%. #BrentfordFC #NFFC #PremierLeague

Under 3.5 goals, 83%. Leeds' league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 85% of their last 20, and that's where this starts. They've conceded 0.9 goals a game across those last 20 league games, so they don't hand much out. They've kept clean sheets in 35% of them too. Away from home their league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 75% of their last 20, so the road doesn't change the picture much. Bournemouth's home league games have stayed under that line in 60% of their last 20, and across all their league games it's 75%. The model expects Bournemouth to score 1.2 goals and Leeds 1. That's a modest forecast for Bournemouth and a modest one for Leeds, not the shape of a goal-fest. For this to lose you'd need four goals or more. It's a big number, but it's not a promise, and with Leeds' league games staying under that line as often as they do, I'd be surprised. Under 3.5 goals, 83%. #AFCB #LUFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 86%. There have been over 1.5 goals in 13 consecutive Chelsea league games, and that's the story. At home it's the same picture: over 1.5 goals in 90% of their last 20 home league games, and six on the bounce there. Chelsea have conceded in 12 consecutive home league games, so the back door at the Bridge has stayed open for a long while. They score there too, in 16 of their last 20 home league games. United bring their end of it. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 away league games, and over 1.5 goals came in 85% of those away games. They've drawn three straight away, and draws can still carry goals. The model expects Chelsea to score 2.1 goals and United 1.4, which is a game with goals at both ends rather than one short of them. It's a big number, but it's not a promise. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. With both sides scoring as often as they do, I'd be surprised to see it that quiet. Over 1.5 goals, 86%. #CFC #MUFC #PremierLeague

Under 3.5 goals, 75%, with Sunderland's home games doing most of the arguing: under 3.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games. Four goals at the Stadium of Light has been the exception, not the habit. Leeds on the road tell a similar story. Under 3.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 away league games, and they haven't scored more than one goal in five consecutive away league games. That's a side that turns up with one goal in its pocket, not four. Sunderland at home are modest at both ends. They average 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded per game across their last 20 home league games, which is a steady sort of afternoon rather than a wild one. The model's predicted goals finish the case: Sunderland 1.2, Leeds 1.3. Neither side is expected to run away with it, and that's not a forecast with four goals in it. It loses on four goals or more. I'd need both sides to find something they haven't been showing. Under 3.5 goals, 75%. #SAFC #LUFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 62%, and Selhurst Park is the reason. Both teams have scored in 5 consecutive Crystal Palace home league games, so this is simply what afternoons there have looked like lately. Start with Palace going forward. They've scored in 5 consecutive home league games, and in 14 of their last 20 at home (70%). That's a side that usually gets something on the board in front of its own crowd. Then the other end. Palace have conceded in 5 consecutive home league games too, and in 14 of their last 20 at home (70%). Their back door at Selhurst stays open. Newcastle bring their share. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 away league games (70%), so they tend to travel with a goal in them. They've also conceded in 5 consecutive league games, which is Palace's way in. The model's predicted goals put it plainly: Crystal Palace 1.5, Newcastle 1.7. Neither side is expected to be shut out. It loses if only one side scores, or neither. For that, one of these defences has to find a clean sheet it hasn't been finding. Both teams to score, 62%. #CPFC #NUFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 63%, and Brighton's away scoring is where it starts. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 away league games (80%), so they don't tend to leave grounds empty-handed. Liverpool do their share at home. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games (80%), and they've conceded in 15 of those 20 (75%). That's a side that scores at Anfield and lets visitors score too. The model's predicted goals say the same thing: Liverpool 1.8, Brighton 1.4. Both sides are expected to score, and neither is expected to keep a clean sheet. This one has some history behind it as well. Brighton have conceded in 6 consecutive league meetings with Liverpool, and in 5 consecutive away league meetings with them. Liverpool have scored in 5 consecutive home league meetings with Brighton. It loses if only one side scores. For that, Brighton would have to stop Liverpool scoring, which they haven't managed in six straight league meetings, or Liverpool would have to keep out a Brighton side that keeps scoring on the road. I don't see either happening. Both teams to score, 63%. #LFC #BHAFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 80%, and Brentford's travels are the heart of it. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Brentford away league games, so their road trips tend to come with goals in them. The model's predicted goals point the same way: Brentford 2, Hull City 1.1. That's the visitors doing most of the work, with Hull still expected to chip in. Brentford's away defence is the other half. They've conceded in 6 consecutive away league games, and in 15 of their last 20 away league games (75%). Hull won't need much help to find a way in. Hull carry their end at home. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 home league games (70%). Hull are up this season, so most of those games came in the division below, but two goals isn't a big ask. The meetings back it too. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two. It only loses on one goal in the game, and I don't see Brentford keeping things that tidy. Over 1.5 goals, 80%. #HCFC #BrentfordFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 62%, and Old Trafford's back door is where it starts. Man Utd have conceded in 9 consecutive home league games, so visitors keep finding a way in. Bournemouth are the visitors who tend to manage it. They've scored in 7 consecutive away league games, and in 17 of their last 20 away (85%). That's a side that doesn't leave grounds empty-handed. United hold up the other end. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games (90%), so a Bournemouth clean sheet would be going against the grain. Bournemouth have kept clean sheets in only 4 of their last 20 away (20%). The fixture itself points the same way. Bournemouth have scored in 6 consecutive league meetings with Man Utd, and United have conceded in all six. The model expects Manchester United to score 1.8 goals and Bournemouth 1.4, which puts a goal at each end. It loses if only one side scores, or neither. On these numbers I don't see either end staying shut. Both teams to score, 62%. #MUFC #AFCB #PremierLeague

Over 2.5 goals, 65%. Separately, there have been over 2.5 goals in 5 consecutive Chelsea home league games, and Stamford Bridge has been anything but quiet lately. The home end does its share. Chelsea have scored 2 goals or more in 4 consecutive home league games, so the goals aren't all coming from the visitors. The other end matters just as much. Chelsea have conceded in 17 of their last 20 home league games (85%). That's a back door that hasn't shut in a long while, and three goals needs it open. Over their last 20 home league games, Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of them. Busy afternoons are the habit there, not the exception. Spurs don't turn up empty-handed either. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 away league games (70%), so they travel with something to add. The model expects Chelsea to score 2.1 goals and Spurs 1.3. That's the home side carrying the load, with the visitors still chipping in. For this to lose you need two goals or fewer, and I don't see Chelsea keeping things that tidy. Over 2.5 goals, 65%. #CFC #THFC #PremierLeague

Two goals is all I'm asking of Coventry and Fulham. The model rates over 1.5 goals at 78%, and Fulham's away defence is the strongest reason: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away league games (80%). That's a side that rarely comes home with a clean sheet. Coventry are up this season, so their last-20 figures are mostly Championship games. Even so, their home games have a habit of producing goals. They've conceded in 5 consecutive home league games, so their own back door isn't shutting either. They've scored in 15 of their last 20 home league games, and 75% of those 20 home games had over 1.5 goals. Fulham's away games point the same way, with over 1.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 away league games. They've also scored in 11 of those 20 away games, so they don't just turn up to defend. The model expects Coventry to score 1.3 goals and Fulham 1.6. That's both sides contributing, not one carrying the game alone. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. That needs a defence to tighten up, and neither has shown it. Over 1.5 goals, 78%. #PUSB #FFC #PremierLeague

Arsenal to win, 67%, and the home record is where it starts. Arsenal are unbeaten in 18 home league games, so a draw or an Everton win means breaking a run that's held a long time. They've also won 16 of their last 20 home league games, and the last six in a row. Goals aren't the worry at the Emirates either: Arsenal have scored in 19 of their last 20 home league games, which is a side that rarely leaves a home game empty-handed. Everton's road form tells the other half. They've won 6 of their last 20 away league games, and their current streak is three straight away draws, so points come, wins mostly don't. The model's predicted goals put it plainly: Arsenal 2, Everton 0.8. That's not a gap you close by hanging on. Football can still throw a draw at you, and that's how this loses. I just don't see Arsenal's home form handing one over. Arsenal to win, 67%. #AFC #EFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 78%, and Forest's away games are the reason. There have been over 1.5 goals in 13 consecutive Nottm Forest away league games, so two goals is what their road trips tend to produce. Forest have also scored in 13 consecutive away league games. That's a side that travels with goals in it. They've conceded in 15 of their last 20 away league games too, so their own back door doesn't shut often either. Ipswich are up this season, so their home figures are mostly from last season's division. Even so, they've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games (90%), and there have been over 1.5 goals in 8 consecutive Ipswich home league games. They've also conceded in 7 consecutive league games, so they're not locking games down. The model expects Ipswich to score 1.3 goals and Forest 1.6, which reads like two sides that both get forward. For this to lose, the game needs only one goal or none, and neither side's recent scoring points that way. Football still gets a vote. Over 1.5 goals, 78%. #ITFC #NFFC #PremierLeague

Tottenham to win, sixty-six percent, and the case starts with the model's predicted goals: Tottenham two point two, Coventry point nine. That gap is the heart of this call. I won't pretend the recent results are doing the work here. I'm leaning on the goals, and I'll say so plainly. At home, Spurs keep finding the net. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games, 80%. That's a side that doesn't often leave its own ground without a goal. Coventry are up this season, so their last-20 figures come mostly from the Championship, not this league. Away from home in that run they conceded in 13 of their last 20 away league games, 65%, so their back door was open more often than not on the road. For this to lose you need a draw or a Coventry win. With a goal gap like the one the model expects, I can see why it doesn't fancy either. Football still gets a vote, and I'll give it its due. Tottenham to win, sixty-six percent. #THFC #PUSB #PremierLeague