People understandably cite this UNIDO chart, claiming China will account for 45% of the world’s manufacturing value added by 2030, but it’s wrong and shouldn’t be cited. It comes from a 2024 UNIDO paper, which @JKynge cites in his new @ChathamHouse report on China and European industry. (His report is worth reading. My issue is only with the UNIDO figure!) UNIDO says it took each country’s average manufacturing growth over 2010–19 and projected it forward from 2024. But if you do that with UNIDO’s own data, China reaches 38% in 2030. The published numbers only come out if you use 2000–19 growth instead, which assumes China’s 13% annual growth from the post-WTO boom suddenly resumes in the coming years (it won’t). This appears to be an error in the UNIDO report. The UNIDO chart also says “industrial production,” but its numbers match manufacturing value added. China’s manufacturing growth has since slowed to around 5%. If we apply each economy’s 2019–25 manufacturing growth rate, China reaches 35% by 2030. In current dollars, China’s share peaked at 30.5% in 2021 and was 28% in 2024 because of deflation and a weaker yuan. China’s manufacturing sector is the biggest in the world, and it’s still growing. But it won’t reach 45% of global manufacturing in 2030. That would require China’s manufacturing output to grow about 14% a year for five years. Even if the rest of the world’s manufacturing didn’t grow at all, China would need 11% a year. It hasn’t grown that fast in any year since 2011. h/t @JonathonPSine, who pointed out some of the UNIDO issues last year.