CEO of TradeSmith, a leading fintech and quantitative investment research firm. Investors trust over $30 billion to be monitored and analyzed on our platform.
Joined October 2022
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Keith Kaplan retweeted
$BTC looking great here... and our systems called the move early. Up 21% since we got bullish on August 19.
Is this a new bull run? Or a fakeout rally with lower lows on the way?
$BTC just rallied to $86,000, a fresh 10-month high.
That is the level we drew a line in the sand at. Once Bitcoin cleared $82,500 and reached a new six-month high, our signal said the bull market was back.
Here is why it matters. After topping near $125,000 last October, Bitcoin fell about 48% into the mid-$60,000s. For months it traded more like a broken tech stock than digital gold.
Then March flipped the script. Bitcoin bottomed and gained 9.5% in a single month while tech stocks fell and gold added just 3.2%.
It was a port in the storm when volatility was hammering the market.
Now Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Around here we say everything below the 200-day is the wrong side of the tracks. Bitcoin is back above it.
And it did this even after the CLARITY Act failed to pass Congress, a headline many thought would sink it.
A clean break to new highs tends to pull in billions in fresh buying. We think that path runs north of $100,000, with knock-on strength for stablecoin and tokenization plays.
Keith Kaplan retweeted
Anthropic's CEO wants the whole AI industry to slow down. OpenAI, xAI, Google, and Microsoft all agree.
Slowdown or not, our CEO @KeithTradeSmith thinks it won't make a dent in the bull market.
tradesmith.com/tradesmith-da…
Keith Kaplan retweeted
This is a great example of how TradeSmith covers stocks and ETFs differently.
We didn't have a rating on $PSIL until late 2024 because it was too new. There wasn't enough data for our volatility-based indicator to make a call.
When we did start rating it, it flashed Green right near the bottom of the post 2021 psychedelics bear market.
For now, this sector is in a confirmed uptrend. Just mind the volatility -- our data shows a 35% drawdown is well within normal bounds given recent price action.
A quick tour of themes hitting new records and racking up gains, regardless of the market.
Psychedelic medicine keeps climbing. The AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF $PSIL is up 55% since our bullish note in March, riding expectations that the U.S. eases rules on psychedelic treatments.
Oil and gas stays a winner. The Energy Select Sector SPDR $XLE, the world's largest oil stock ETF, notched a new all-time high.
Pipelines are pumping too. The Alerian MLP ETF $AMLP hit a fresh all-time high this week.
Health care diagnostics keeps producing winners. Diagnostics giant Labcorp $LH reached a new all-time high.
And U.S. refiners are cashing in on tighter Middle East oil supply. Marathon Petroleum $MPC, Phillips 66 $PSX, and Valero Energy $VLO all printed new all-time highs.
Five different themes, one message: broad strength under the surface, not a narrow rally.
Bookmark this for your watchlist.
Keith Kaplan retweeted
@KeithTradeSmith 's big AI trade idea...
PJM, largest grid operator in the US, keeps the lights on for 67 million people — and it just told regulators it'll power down the biggest data centers first if AI's electricity demand outruns supply.
tradesmith.com/tradesmith-da…
Keith Kaplan retweeted
What Happened With Earnings This Week:
$NVDA $WMT $HD $TJX $LOW $INTU $ADI $WDAY $ROST $TCOM $TGT $CPRT $TTWO $BIDU $KEYS $WSM $RL $BJ $TOL $BAH
The 20 largest companies that reported, and how they did:
$NVDA - Beat EPS by 5.6% - Stock flat to slightly down
$WMT - In line EPS, beat revenue - Stock modestly higher
$HD - Beat EPS by 0.6%, beat revenue - Stock +0.9%
$TJX - Beat EPS by 19% - Stock higher, raised guidance
$LOW - Beat EPS by 2.4% - Stock higher
$INTU - Beat EPS by 1.8% - Stock -4% on restructuring news
$ADI - Beat EPS by 6.6% - Stock -7% despite record results
$WDAY - Beat EPS by 18.2%, missed revenue - Stock higher
$ROST - Beat EPS by 20.2%, raised guidance - Stock surged
$TCOM - Beat estimates, in-line outlook - Stock mixed
$TGT - Beat with $25.4B sales up 6.7% - Stock higher
$CPRT - Beat EPS by 4.9% - Stock +4.1%
$TTWO - Beat EPS by 38%, missed revenue - Stock rose
$BIDU - Beat EPS by 0.8%, AI revenue +49% - Stock higher
$KEYS - Record quarter, raised guidance - Stock higher
$WSM - Beat EPS by 7.2% - Stock higher
$RL - Beat EPS by 10.2% - Stock +10.3%
$BJ - Beat EPS by 6.7% - Stock higher
$TOL - Beat EPS by 5.4%, raised guidance - Stock higher
$BAH - EPS $1.78 up 10.6% - Mixed reaction on revenue decline
Keith Kaplan retweeted
Great find @KeithTradeSmith 🎯 The vol viz backs this up too — VMC closes within its expected move 84% of the time over the last 2 years. A 4% mean reversion target on a 96.7% win rate signal? That's about as close to a layup as you get in this market.
Pivot Signal Just Fired on Vulcan Materials $VMC
TradeSmith's Signals product caught a reversion-to-the-mean setup in $VMC - the five-day cumulative RSI(2) reading dropped below 40, flagging a short-term oversold condition in a company with a strong long-term uptrend.
This pattern has fired 30 times in $VMC with a 96.7% win rate - 29 wins out of 30 occurrences.
Average gain (wins and losses): 4.66% over an average hold of 14 days.
Median gain: 4.5%. Best winner: +13.43%. Max loss: -0.61%.
The signal exits when the 2-period RSI reaches an extreme overbought reading, indicating the short-term dip has run its course.
Signal quality score: 94 out of 100.
Repeatable patterns. Real data. Clear rules.
Keith Kaplan retweeted
Today in TradeSmith Daily:
- A flat 2026 shows investors are anxious about AI
- Our Quantum Score helps you find the best of the best biotech stocks $AMGN, $REGN, and more
- Predictive Alpha is bullish $MKSI, bearish $TNET
Read the full issue: tradesmith.com/tradesmith-da…
Keith Kaplan retweeted
TRADE IDEA: Bitcoin $BTC just entered a Green Zone, with historically strong price performance.
This particular Green Zone for $BTC has a 12 year historical 91.67% accuracy rate and an average return of 36.72% (>500% annualized). It runs from Oct 3 to Nov 7.
#Seasonality
