Husband, father, mechanical systems engineer.
Bend, OR
Joined April 2008
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Plan for days, not hours.
Most crisis plans assume the grid fails and everyone waits it out. Power, phones, payments and people are tightly coupled. Every failure feeds the next.
We built a model for that: the Crisis Cascade Model.
#Prepping #EmergencyPreparedness #GridDown
The good news is that a small share of neighbors bend the curve back. Pooled childcare, shared heat and a local radio net free people up to keep the systems running. It takes organizing ahead of time, not a bigger stockpile.
Your 72 hours isn't fixed. Living in a high-rise, deep cold, a phone blackout or having dependents at home can each shrink it, and stacked together they can bring 72 hours down to 12.
Who shows up to fix it? In a survey of healthcare workers, under half said they'd report during a disaster. Childcare, transportation and caring for family keep the rest home. Fewer crews means longer outages.
At Hour 12 the panic run starts. About a quarter of households rush for fuel and food long before most people think anything is wrong. By the time the majority acts, the shelves are already thin.
The first 12 hours are quiet, and that's the trap. Pumps stop, cell towers drain their batteries, and people on powered medical devices start calling 911 just as the network goes dark.
Most people plan for a 72-hour blackout. The problem is that the grid isn't the only thing that fails. Phones, payments, staffing and repairs feed into each other, and three days turns into two weeks.
Here's how it actually unfolds 🧵
@makersmuse Have you heard what @OSEcology is doing with 3D Printers? I would love to hear your take on these: youtube.com/watch?time_conti…
May the fourth be with you!
And if you want to listen along while you work:
listentoamovie.com/media/ind…
