@KASDad

1st worked on Wall St summer '65. Recovering securities lawyer. Trading for a living 45 yrs. Not investment advice, don't be silly. 🇮🇱 linshek lei et hitchat

Joined October 2010
"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"
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Cam Schlittler threw 22 pitches in the 1st inning, more than you'd like to see. The Yankees record in those games in 2025-26 was 12 - 4.
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My best @Yankees - @RedSox story. It was 1973, I was a first year law school student in Boston. Friends had access to box seats at Fenway for an April Yankees game. I wore my Yankees hat and stood up in the top half of the 7th. Wasn't sure I was getting out of there alive.
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Mamdani announced a cosmetic plan to combat antisemitism. He needs to look in the mirror and should make an example of his antisemetic wife. Then there is the fact that Mamdani refuses to disassociate himself from Hassan Piker. What a joke.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Something is deeply wrong with this motherfucker.
Trump on Canada: "They have been one of the worst countries in the entire world"
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A village idiot is addicted to his own voice. Trump reminds me of the rebel leader Esposito in "Bananas" who when he seizes power orders that underwear be worn on the outside. youtube.com/watch?v=ukr3Y3un…
Trump: "We're gonna be signing a document today renaming artificial intelligence, because it's not artificial. We're gonna be naming it Super Intelligence. Officially renaming it."
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
A separate breadth study looked at cases when more than 7.7% of S&P 500 stocks hit 252-day lows with the index within 5% of its high. Over the next month, >5% max drawdowns were more common than >5% max gains. users.sentimentrader.com/use…
The S&P 500 $SPY has been holding within 1% of a new high. More than 70% of its stocks are at least 10% below their own highs. Here's every other time it happened in the past 30 years.
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The stock market, $ES_Z, is holding its nose on the SPR release announcement. Crude, $CL_X , sold off but $ES_Z revisited session lows after a brief spike higher. Treasury yields chuckled and were unmoved.
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There are credible reports that the Trump administration intends to nationalize Vin Diesel in furtherance of their goal of lessening the adverse effects of the Iran War.
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Somewhere just outside the Forbidden City in Beijing, Xi is chuckling at the announcement of the release of 40 million barrels from our SPR. Why? China has increased its petroleum reserves, 1st when prices were low prior to the Iran War and continued thereafter.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
$SPX new DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13, follows recent Nasdaq Composite Sequential sell Countdown 13. As shown on Hedge Fund Telemetry
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With the announcement of the release of an additional 40 million barrels from the SPR, the reserve will be at a level that equalls 59% of its pre-2026 level. Further withdrawls will likely be made with straws. Future withdrawals will likely look like this:
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Scrapping the bottom of the SPR barrel?
*US OFFERS UP TO 40 MILLION BARRELS FROM STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
BARCLAYS: U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD COULD HIT 6% Barclays says the 30-year Treasury yield could reach 6% if the AI investment boom produces a sustained acceleration in U.S. productivity. Stronger productivity could keep the economy growing faster and force markets to raise long-run expectations for Fed rates, pushing long-term yields higher. The 30-year yield has already climbed above 5.61%, its highest since 2002.
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What are the odds that this page is not changed before the end of the day?
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$QQQ has so far held above yesterday's low ($SPY has not). Yesterday's selloff held at the Anchored VWAP from the Sept 16th low.
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$IWM This chart requires no comment.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Gold miners are roughly 20% below their March highs, but their weakest seasonal window has begun. From late September to early November, HUI declined in 61% of years since 1962. Average losses were 9.8%, versus 5.9% for gains; HUI still rose in 39% of years. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
To those who keep telling me that interest rates are just back to the long term normal, I agree but as it comes after 15 years of abnormal, therein lies the problem for those whose debt is coming due this year and next that was priced prior to 2022. The refi options are where the rate shock is. Just imagine the real estate operator who priced a 3% loan five years ago and is repricing at 8% this year, an ongoing adjustment seen over the past few years for those whose debt came due. We’ve of course seen the damage done to household mobility as many stick to their 3-4% mortgage rate and choose not to move. Or that SPAC and/or LBO in 2021 whose time has come to refi. Also, it is the rate of change and trajectory of the rate move that is the focus right now too, not only the absolute level.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Somewhere along the line, Bryson DeChambeau convinced himself that people showing his actions are the problem. Not his actions.

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Excellent long term chart from @vixologist's Substack today showing the risk posed by a declining High Yield Bond Cumulative Advance-Decline Line.
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