I’VE WATCHED BITCOIN SINCE 2017 - I’VE NEVER SEEN THIS xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wxWjlNoa… I've been studying BTC intently since 2017, and I can't recall a time where I saw liquidity and orderflow dynamics choreographed as well, or as blatantly as this. Wednesday we saw what appeared to be an epic battle in the Bitcoin order book, and the market watched to see if it would lead to a durable breakout. The day began with a buy wall of BTC price approaching the Q4 Open at $83.5k and a buy wall appearing at $83k, push price higher, squeeze shorts, and bait late buyers into a bull trap. But shortly after that buy wall appeared at $83k and price began to move up, large blocks of ask liquidity started stacking above $84k with secondary resistance laddered up to $85,250. Price then ate through resistance at $84k before support replenished at that level, corralling active traders into a very narrow range - at that point the bull trap was baited and set. After spending roughly 7 hours trading in an elevated range and luring more traders into longs, price rejected from $85k and a selloff began that unwound a week’s worth of market buying and retraced the entire move. The cascade that followed invalidated the attempt and liquidated over $500M in late longs. Now price is fighting for support at the 50-Day SMA for the 9th time in a 2 week period. Before you react and get caught in the next directional trap, remind yourself that wicks don’t count - confirmation comes after closes. If you missed a short from the top of the range, this isn’t the place to chase one, because price is flirting with a technical support/resistance flip at the 50-Day SMA, and it certainly isn’t the place to open a long - for the exact same reason. BTC price can develop 3 different ways from here: Find support before a CHoCH at the LL, close above the 50-Day SMA, then aim for a retest of resistance in the range between the 21-Day SMA and the Q4 Open Lose support at the LL, validate a CHoCH from HH/HL and extend the downtrend Chop in the range above the adjacent low and below the adjacent high - high risk

At first glance, this break above the 4Hr trend, the prior consolidation range, and the Q4 Open appears to be extremely bullish for bitcoin:native, however momentum is beginning to fade as RSI approaches overbought territory. Zooming out to the D chart we can see that it's one intra-day candle still searching for acceptance. Regardless of where the wicks go, validation doesn't come before the close.

Is Bitcoin going to breakout, or is this another fakeout ahead of the TradFi open? bitcoin:native is attempting to break above the consolidation range and reclaim the 21-Day SMA. A ladder of sell walls stacked above $84k is impeding upward progress in the order book, but so far they haven't been challenged because the Timescape R/S Flip line at the Q4 Open has served up another rejection at $83,555. What breaks first - $82,750 or $84,250?

Is Bitcoin building a durable base—or simply delaying a deeper flush? Another rejection at the 21-Day SMA has created another lower high, sending bitcoin:native price back into the consolidation range for fresh test of the 50-Day SMA. So far, repeated defenses of the 50-Day show that buyers are still protecting this range. IMO - That makes it worth watching for incremental DCA entries into a longer-term position. The caveat: bulls still haven’t reclaimed the Quarterly Open near $83.5k. Until they do, downside risk remains elevated. If the 50-Day SMA fails, the next structural support levels are: • Macro trendline: ~$78.3k • 50-Week SMA + range low: $75k–$76.1k • Full range failure: $69k–$72k flush target Does the 50-Day hold again, or are we headed for the lower support zones before a durable breakout?

After a volatile morning (Eastern Time) bitcoin:native price has stablized, but don't allow yourself to gain a false sense of security. After a flush below $80k, reclaiming the 50-Day SMA is indeed bullish for bitcoin:native, however the fact that price made a Lower Low, and the relief rally was met with a hard rejection from the Timescape R/S Flip Line at $82.5k increases the probability that we'll see another support test before a clean break above the Yearly Open at $87.5k - If price can flip the Quarterly Open at $83.5k, I'll reevaluate.

Buckle up for another round of economic data. Yesterday's report triggered a selloff across crypto and TradFi markets. Let's see if today's metrics fuel more downward momentum or trigger a reversion back above the 50-Day SMA.

Equities are pairing back gains alongside bitcoin:native on hotter than expected inflation numbers. But Bitcoin Dominance is holding above 60% while ethereum:native and Alts dump.

Are you using AI to help trade crypto or stocks, or just experimenting? I’ve spent weeks testing AI platforms. Found a few diamonds. Plenty of coal. What’s earned a place in your workflow? Drop the tool + how you use it: research, analysis, backtesting, signals or execution. 👇

Morning Meditation.

UPTOBER FAIL - CRYPTO'S BIGGEST SUPPORT TEST IS HERE xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1AJEmvAeX… With Bitcoin price eroding away the hopes, dreams, and portfolios of the Uptoberists, now we need to focus our attention on how BTC, ETH, and ALT prices are likely to develop from here. In today’s crypto market analysis we’ll look at the structure, liquidity, and order flow on BTC, ETH, and SOL to gain some insight on how various scenarios may play out. Last week I told you about the dynamic relationship between Timescape Levels and warned you about buying into the Uptober narrative - now you know why. A rejection from the first weekly open of Q4 forced price into a support test at the Q4 Open. Today that test failed and now assets are searching for support. Things to Watch • BTC, ETH, SOL and many other Altcoins have lost their daily trend and the Q4 Timescape Levels, and are now searching for support in their respective prior consolidation ranges. • The 50-Week SMA is widely believed to be a macro R/S flip line for Bear/Bull markets. Holding it would be an extremely bullish support test. Losing it would likely trigger a cascade to the next range lower. • If BTC price breaks below the 50-Week SMA and goes to $71.3k, we can’t rule out the possibility of testing $69k - IMO, it’s the most important structural level on the chart. • ETH is rapidly approaching a support test at the 50-Week SMA 📊 Trade the charts. Ignore the noise. ⚠️ Opinions only. Not financial advice. 🔔 Like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future BTC market updates.

A reality check for the Uptoberists.

Now you know why I gave this warning last week. See the full analysis here... xitter.cf/KAProductions/status/2…

Here comes the next critical support test for bitcoin:native . A close below $82.5k sends it back to test support in the $77k - $79k range.

Rise… And shine.