
@UF Computer Science × Economics | NFL analytics & strategy | Data Analyst/Engineer @UFSportsAnalytx @GatorsMBK
Joined July 2020
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The Rams are playing like its Week 1 in Australia.
Tyler Higbee also notably fumbled in the 4th quarter, which just happened again right now.
Rams first half offense against the Cardinals:
107 yards
3.7 yards/play
-0.17 EPA/play
All three are their worst first-half marks this season.
Quentin Lake picked off a pass intended for Trey McBride on the Cardinals' first drive.
McBride had been the intended receiver on 236 straight passes without an interception. The previous one came in Week 17 of 2024, also against the Rams.
Over 2025-26, among 34 QBs with 300+ dropbacks:
- 4.7 catastrophic plays per 100 dropbacks, 3rd worst (median 3.1)
- 153 EPA lost on them, 2nd worst (median 77)
- 64% of them are INTs, 3rd highest (median 47%)
The Broncos effectively punted the ball 7 possessions in a row (excluding the 1 play drive at the end of the first half)
A team doing that has not won since 2017.
Real App inspired animation of what went down 👇
Denver's offense has fallen off in the second half:
1st half:
+0.17 EPA/play
41% success rate
4/7 third down conversion
5.4 average target depth
2nd half:
-0.51 EPA/play
13% success rate
0/4 third conversion
1.1 average target depth
How deep each QB drops in 2025 and 2026
Bo Nix has the 5th deepest median dropback depth amongst starters.
For most QBs, dropping deeper buys time for higher aDOT throws. Not for Nix.
🧵
FTN charting backs it up.
On 9+ yard dropbacks, Nix checks down on 28% of his throws, 3rd most among starters.
(thanks @realfrankbrank!)
A lot of discussion about QB dropback recently.
QB dropback depth under 7 yds vs 9+ yds:
Air yards per throw: 5.5 → 13.8
EPA/db when not sacked: +0.11 → +0.22
Sack rate: 2.7% → 10.0%
Biggest changes in 7+ blocker rate from 2025 to 2026:
Fallers 📉
- Seahawks: 11.9% → 5.4% (1st → 24th)
- Browns: 7.5% → 1.0% (9th → 32nd)
- Giants: 9.2% → 5.6% (4th → 21st)
- Texans: 9.7% → 6.9% (3rd → 17th)
Risers 📈
- Commanders: 4.9% → 12.6% (24th → 3rd)
- Bills: 4.1% → 11.0% (29th → 6th)
- Falcons: 5.9% → 12.7% (19th → 2nd)
- Vikings: 6.5% → 13.1% (15th → 1st)
42% of Packers opponent drives started inside their own 20.
Drives starting there end in a TD just 16% of the time this season, compared to 27% everywhere else.
The Rams just signed Blake Grupe off the Jets practice squad.
He's been a bit below average on short field goals, about average from 50+, and reliable on extra points (98%).
Last year he went 11/11 with the Colts, including a 60-yard field goal.
Tyler Higbee in the last 3 weeks:
23 targets (5th)
18 receptions (T-5th)
212 yards (3rd)
+0.65 EPA/target (6th)
He's played 44% of his snaps in the slot or out wide.
amongst eligible TEs
The Rams had -13.1 EPA on special teams tonight, featuring:
48-yd blocked field goal (-3.7 EPA)
50-yd missed field goal (-3.4 EPA)
70-yd kickoff return allowed (-3.3 EPA)
On track to be the worst special teams game of the season so far.
Rams special teams ranking this year by EPA:
Overall: 32nd (-31.8 EPA)
Field goals/XPs/2pt: 32nd (-10.4 EPA)
Kickoff coverage: 32nd (-12.5 EPA)
Kick returns: 29th (+1.7 EPA)
Punting: 28th (-5.8 EPA)
Punt returns: 18th (-0.2 EPA)
Opp. field goals/XPs/2pt: 19th (-4.6 EPA)
The 6th worst start to a special teams unit since 1999 through Week 5.
The 49ers have scored 15 touchdowns on 17 red zone drives this year 😳
Other teams on drives reaching the red zone this season 👇






