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I'm aiming to join X's Original Content Rewards Program by the end of 2027.
Where I'm starting:
Verified followers: 27 / 500
Verified home timeline impressions, last 90 days: 295 / 500K
So by the end of 2027 I need to be averaging about 5,500 a day, for a full 90 days in a row.
That's a long way off, so I've got a lot to learn.
I'll post an update every Saturday with the numbers, what worked and what didn't. Follow along if you want to see whether it happens.
"Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving." Buffett
Same idea as paying yourself first. Move the money the day you're paid, before it has a chance to disappear.
Buffett on market swings:
"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it."
Easier said than done on a red day. But a falling price is only bad news if you have to sell.
"People calculate too much and think too little." Munger
A spreadsheet to three decimal places isn't the same as understanding a business. Judgement matters more than precision.
Graham on being right:
"The stock investor is neither right nor wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right."
Popularity tells you nothing. Facts and reasoning are what count.
Philip Fisher on selling:
"If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never."
The work is at the start. If the business stays good, you mostly sit and let it compound.
Peter Lynch on spotting good businesses:
"Go for a business that any idiot can run, because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to run it."
Simple, durable businesses survive weak management. Complicated ones need a genius.
"The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." Peter Lynch
Plenty of people had the right idea and sold it at the wrong time. The research doesn't help if the nerve isn't there.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." Attributed to Benjamin Franklin
An hour on an annual report costs nothing and the return doesn't depend on markets.
Week 2 update on the road to X monetisation.
Verified followers: 197 / 500
Verified impressions (last 90 days): 9.6K / 500K
Followers are nearly 40% of the way there. Impressions are the tough one at under 2%, and replies don't count towards it, only posts.
Going to keep focusing on proper company breakdowns and earnings posts, the stuff people actually save and share.
The goal's end of 2027 so it's early days.
Massive thanks to everyone who's been following along and replying 🤝
It’s currently 2AM for me right now but I thought this needed to be said.
In this last week I’m down more than I make in a single month and I know this is the case for a lot of people currently invested right now.
However the important part is not the red in your portfolio, it’s the preparation you’ve done beforehand. If you have invested into strong quality businesses at a cheap/fair valuation then you should have no reason to worry. If anything it should be celebrated.
The market is giving you an opportunity, if you were happy buying them before why would you be upset to buy them cheaper?
The honest truth is a lot of people on X are panicking about their holdings yet the businesses themselves have likely not changed fundamentally in the last few weeks.
Now of course I’d rather see my holdings be green but the market is more than just easy quick wins. Sometimes it can test your mental strength as well as your conviction in your holdings and in your own analysis.
Everybody is a long term investor in a bull market but as soon as a drawdown comes they have to “limit their loses.”
The market could go lower, the market could do higher. However I’ve been picking up some extra shares of some companies I truly believe in long term. I just think a lot of people tend to overreact, the Nasdaq isn’t even down 10% from highs, fluctuations happen in the market and can often be taken advantage of, however this is only the case if you don’t let your negative emotions get the better of you.
Human instinct tells you to FOMO in when the market is rising and it tells you to avoid any pain and cut all losses when the market is in drawdown.
Not financial advice, just thought it could help some people.
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Attributed to Sir John Templeton
Mood moves in a cycle. The hard part is noticing which stage you're in while you're in it.
"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." Jack Bogle
Impulse is cheap and fast. Time costs nothing but is hard to sit through.
Housel's best sentence:
"Doing well with money has little to do with how smart you are and a lot to do with how you behave."
Which is annoying, because behaviour is harder to fix than knowledge.
Customer acquisition cost vs lifetime value, with simple numbers.
If it costs £100 to win a customer who then brings in £300 of profit over their life, that's a 3:1 ratio. Most people treat 3:1 or better as healthy.
At 1:1 the company is spending as fast as it earns. The tricky part is that lifetime value is an estimate, so I check churn and payback time too. A payback period of months, not years, is a good sign.
Added more $NBIS today at $159.
Imo it's getting dragged down with $CRWV on AI debt fears. But Nebius just got a $3.5B loan from Citi at around 6.6%.
CoreWeave's 2031 bonds are reportedly yielding over 15%.
The market's pricing them like the same risk. Which I don't think they are. Nebius has a way cleaner balance sheet and carries much less risk.
NFA
The dot-com bust in numbers.
The Nasdaq Composite peaked around 5,000 in March 2000 and fell roughly 78% by October 2002. It didn't regain that nominal peak until 2015.
Plenty of the businesses survived. Buyers who paid the peak price had a very long wait. I'm not saying today looks the same, only that the price you pay still matters.
Index funds or individual stocks? One useful way to decide is how much time you want to spend.
Index funds: little time, the market's return, no single-company risk.
Individual stocks: lots of reading, a chance to beat the market, and a real chance to lag it.
Neither is wrong. If you aren't going to read annual reports, the index is a perfectly good answer.
A simple test for pricing power: did prices rise without customers leaving?
Check a period when costs were high.
Look at gross margin through that stretch. Stable or rising margins with steady volumes suggest it could pass costs on. Falling margins suggest it couldn't.
It's one of the best ways I know to spot a business with a real edge, and it only needs a few years of numbers.
Was this $NBIS wick down to $148 a platform malfunction or some serious aftermarket move?
Seems to have been bought up quick so I’m leaning towards malfunction




