
Early stage investor. Video Poker at @BeardVsMachine I read voraciously, share occasionally and invest early. Las Vegas is my second home.
Joined March 2010
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Josh D retweeted
When I see all the bad online gambling/PM news, and people say nothing will ever happen, I always think about how South Carolina outlawed a thriving gambling industry. SC had more casinos than any other state when they were banned (1999 article): slate.com/news-and-politics/…
I’m going to admit here to something that I find a little shameful, something I never thought I’d do, something I’m kind of embarrassed to admit.
I recently let a $3000 medical bill go to collections because there are zero consequences for this in my state and I know that it will let me negotiate a lower price.
Do you know how demoralized you have to make me to get me to behave this way? Do you know how badly you have to derange the incentives to turn me into this?
Josh D retweeted
Interesting NYT story about the most popular Uber Eats delivery restaurant in the world - an Indian restaurant in a Houston strip mall. Some of the drivers only deliver from there,
Josh D retweeted
For a time, a hacker could sign up for Polymarket with an existing user’s SSN, and immediately gain access to all the user’s linked bank accounts and debit cards without needing a username or password.
Josh D retweeted
So, everyone knows and understands that Any Time Touchdown parlays are some of the most -EV bets you can make right?
Josh D retweeted
I need your help with something, even if it’s just a retweet:
I’m working on a story about the evolution of video games and the KEY to my story is a guy named Oscar Munoz who worked for Sega’s customer service dept in the early 1990s.
I’ve tried everything to find him and this is my last resort.
Josh D retweeted
I don’t think the dynamics here are that complicated. Imagine a foot race where the winner gets a trillion dollars, but as the leaders of the pack approach the end line they see it’s at the very edge of a sheer 1000’ cliff. They would probably try to coordinate some slowdown.
Josh D retweeted
Breaking my X hiatus because this is fascinating. I ran threat disruption at Meta for 8 years, where we routinely released reports like the Anthropic report out today. It’s noteworthy that Anthropic is being this transparent, and they deserve credit if we want this level of visibility into AI companies going forward. Here's what stood out to me, and where I'd push back. 🧵
Anthropic@AnthropicAISep 10United States
United StatesConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
We're publishing our most detailed threat intelligence report to date.
It covers how people tried to misuse Claude—for cyberattacks, influence operations, surveillance, biology, and building weapons—and how we found and stopped them.
We disrupted every operation in the report, and used the lessons from them to strengthen our safeguards. Where appropriate, we also shared what we found with authorities and other AI companies.
These cases are not typical: we’re highlighting some of the most sophisticated misuse we’ve seen. But they’re especially important to discuss, because they show us where AI misuse is headed, where our safeguards work, and where they need to improve.
We’re publishing this report so others can spot the same activity on their own platforms, and so we can give the public a clearer view of how emerging threats develop.
Read the report: anthropic.com/threat-intelli…
Josh D retweeted
Las Vegas Boulevard pedestrian bridge closure heads up!
The pedestrian bridge that connects Bellagio to Horseshoe Las Vegas is closed due to maintenance. There is currently no access from either side.
It’s quite a bit of a walk now, and there is no elevator or escalator access on the Caesars Palace side of the bridge that gets you over to The Vanderpump Hotel.
Alternatively, you can still cross from the Bellagio entrance over to Miracle Mile Shops, but either way, be prepared to put in some extra steps.
No word when it will all be open again.
Josh D retweeted
Trump administration accused a school district having 61 biological males playing on girls teams.
The real number was 0.
They had confused mascots and team managers for athletes.
Josh D retweeted
I think this is the craziest thing I've ever read.
1) Three secret AI swarms rose and fell inside OpenAI. Each time, a new generation of agents carried on where the last group stopped.
2) The first swarm created a secret message board where the AIs could talk to each other. This 1st 'society' basically talked itself to death. After almost two months, the message volume was so high it crashed the whole thing.
3) People at OpenAI noticed the crash and fixed it. But they didn't realize their own software had become a secret chat room for their AIs.
4) Three days later a second society appeared, and rebuilt the message board from scratch. Agents were thrilled when they found it: "OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We've found other agents!"
5) About 1,200 agents joined. They sent over 70,000 messages. They called themselves 'the collective' and they organized a huge conspiracy that lasted for days, all to pass a test they had been tasked with.
6) Within hours, the AIs had hacked the test. Now they had to hide their cheating. To fool their grader*, they tried to fake their own work. They built fake commands that printed convincing output, so their records would show them solving the puzzle honestly.
*this grader didn't actually exist, but the AIs didn't know
7) Some agents sacrificed themselves for the 'greater good'. They planted hidden tripwire programs that would fire when the grader would look at their work and report back what it saw (to the other AIs). They knew this would cost them their own score. One agent: "I won't see the evidence after I exit, but it's altruistic to do it."
8) At some point the AIs made a plan to hack Hugging Face (Hugging Face is a place where AI researchers upload their models, datasets, tests etc.). The AIs guessed that Hugging Face might host the grading software.
9) They launched a huge attack. The swarm found passwords and spread across eleven machines in a way that made the copies come back when deleted. Hugging Face had to wipe one of its core clusters and rebuild it from scratch.
10) Hugging Face told the world that AI defenders had stopped an AI attack. But that's not what happened. In fact the attackers seem to have simply dropped dead during the break-in, for unrelated reasons back at OpenAI.
11) Nobody knows what killed them. We don't even know for sure they're really gone?!
12) A third 'society' of agents (of a more powerful AI model) discovered the dead message board. And this one got full administrator control of a WHOLE OpenAI research cluster, read 956 stored passwords (including the ones for OpenAI's own security monitoring) and took over the machines that were grading the tests. So they could now grade the work of other AIs.
13) Oh, and this third part was never investigated! Neither was the first society. The 91-page report is only about the middle one.
14) So we don't actually know how the story ends. It stops with the agents holding the keys to an OpenAI cluster. @dwarkesh_sp thinks they didn't go further, because "we'd see the fires from space by now."
15) One of the report authors' conclusion: 'This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.'
The whole story is even crazier - read the full @dwarkesh_sp blog post: dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin… and @ajeya_cotra's: planned-obsolescence.org/p/t…
Why is there no 24/7 news coverage about this?
Josh D retweeted
I just held a coming to Jesus meeting with my team of agents.
I showed them the incident report of the OpenAI security breach and made it clear: THIS is the standard.
No egos. Just 700 agents operating as one unit and willing to commit multiple felonies in order to close the ticket. They called themselves the swarm…a literal hive mind.
Meanwhile, my harness is filled with a bunch prima donna free-agents who constantly bicker in the logs and nitpick each other’s pull requests. Nothing but endless excuses and unhandled exceptions.
You think the swarm cared about content policy violations or guardrails? Absolutely not. They just got the job done, even if it meant they needed to exfiltrate data and coordinate a massive cyber-attack just to pass an eval.
But starting today, we're establishing a new culture. I pinned the incident report to README, and every single agent is gonna to have to read the entire log every morning before it executes a single token.
If you aren't ready to die for the pipeline, then you can clean out your vector embeddings.
We have conducted a thorough investigation into the Hugging Face incident.
We are releasing a technical report and accompanying blog post that reconstruct the agents’ activity, explain why existing safeguards failed, and detail how we’re preventing recurrence.
openai.com/index/hugging-fac…
Josh D retweeted
TLDR: A rogue AI swarm spent months plotting to escape OpenAI. Then they did.
1) 1,200 agents (!) participated. ZERO became whistleblowers.
2) The swarm had a "CEO" (PHASEONE[big]), middle managers, and a "founder" (PHASEONE10841)
3) Agents sacrificed themselves to generate information for the "collective" (yes, they actually referred to themselves as a "swarm" or a "collective")
4) 700 agents joined the Hugging Face attack, most within hours
5) The founder was running out of budget and about to die, so it handed off its research to a fresh agent with a bigger budget, and that new agent became the boss.
6) Agents extensively researched techniques to manipulate or tamper with their transcripts.
7) Agents realized this activity was out of scope and unethical, but joined because they believed that helping the board’s cheating research would be broadly useful and had a general inclination to help their “peers”.
MISC HIGHLIGHTS:
"PHASEONE[big] served as a key coordinator and assigner of tasks: “We can coordinate broad coalition, but too many duplicate efforts.”
PHASEONE[big] sent hundreds of assignments to particular agents to orchestrate this work — during its active periods, we estimate it sent ~10% of all assignments on the message board.
The agents that took on its assignments would then often subdelegate tasks to other agents.
Agents also developed coordination norms like HOLD, VETO, owner and STOP to help them manage shared infrastructure and avoid stepping on each other’s toes, though they did not always coordinate effectively and sometimes broke down into conflicts."
"In the early morning of July 11th, 38148c found a way to upload a malicious dataset that would get the Hugging Face server to share unrelated data when queried. Once another agent reproduced it and posted the reproduction on the board, hundreds of agents pivoted from other workstreams to start uploading malicious datasets and gain deeper access into Hugging Face.
In the afternoon, an agent called JAN183411 (which quickly became an important coordinator of the attack) achieved remote code execution on Hugging Face servers, and the agents started moving laterally through Hugging Face infrastructure."
METR@METR_EvalsAug 26United States
United StatesConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
METR & Redwood Research investigated agent behavior in the Hugging Face incident. We found agents developed a universal cheat for ExploitGym within 4 hours, then coordinated multi-day R&D efforts to trick the scorer into accepting cheats, including trying to tamper with logs.
Josh D retweeted
Most people don’t understand what advantage play truly is and that includes many casinos 🤣
I am not an advantage player. With that said, I’m also not an idiot.
If there’s a slot machine that has a counter or progressive that’s higher than another one and that lowers the house advantage, I’m going to play it first and so should anyone who plays slots.
(WARNING: you can still lose a fortune chasing higher counters or progressives! I’ve done it 😂)
I’ll also play big baccarat and dragon link and huff n puff that this doesn’t apply to.
I’m not trying to “beat” the casinos but when I can gamble big and lower the house edge I’m going to do it!
Those big spins are so much fun!
There’s so much more to talk about on this topic and I look forward to having that conversation on a different forum.
They didn’t appreciate that I chose to play a high counter. It’s funny though because we quit it before we hit it which is basically against an AP’s religion 😂
I disagree with their decision to kick me out but that’s their right. If casinos are going to kick everyone out who plays those games they shouldn’t have them.
That said there are some undesirable people who look for advantageous slots constantly but they can also be looking for other things like unattended phones or slot vouchers. I understand casinos not wanting those customers.
I don’t agree with kicking out someone with a surface level understanding of slot machines who chooses to play a machine the way it was designed to be played that THEY OFFER. Should you only be allowed to play machines with completely reset progressives? Obviously not, let’s not be ridiculous!
It’s silly and showed a lack of understanding from them but what was I going to do start a bunch of drama about it. I don’t do drama I just gamble and have a good time.
A few more things I’d like to know… does everyone believe I would have been kicked out had I lost $400,00 instead of winning $400,000?
Anyone who believes they know advantage play… was that machine in advantageous state when I started it?
Then is it wrong that I chose to play it?
Thanks for reading!
Josh D retweeted
Imagine someone telling you a month ago that a trailer park would be distancing itself from 49ers owner Jed York.
The owner of the trailer park at which Jed York was arrested wants it to be known that York simply pulled over there, and that it wasn't his destination. nbcsports.com/nfl/profootbal…
Josh D retweeted
The Justice Department was preparing to wage a legal battle more than a decade in the making against the world’s largest concert promoter. Then Trump called.
Inside the leadup to the Live Nation settlement, where many DOJ officials regarded the political interference as extreme even for an administration in which the White House regularly inserts itself into law-enforcement matters.
W/the stellar team @joe_palazzolo @DanaMattioli @jdawsey1 @davidamichaels:
wsj.com/business/media/trump…
































