Final-year PhD @MRC_BSU. Epidemiological/statistical modelling with @ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey data to better understand the pandemic.

Cambridge, UK
Joined November 2019
"A calculator app? Anyone could make that." Not true. A calculator should show you the result of the mathematical expression you entered. That's much, much harder than it sounds. What I'm about to tell you is the greatest calculator app development story ever told.
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Thesis now corrected and available online! repository.cam.ac.uk/items/5…
Proud to announce that I recently submitted my thesis! It has two parts. First, estimating how long people test PCR positive for. Second, using this for transmission modelling with the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey. 1/3
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Joshua Blake retweeted
Most software is routinely tested to ensure it works as expected. However, testing is rarer for statistical models. In this blog post, I discuss my experience implementing tests for a Bayesian software package: athowes.github.io/posts/2024…
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Suppose more human H5N1 cases crop up (alongside the many that are probably being undetected currently). What’s the plan? Suppose household transmission clusters start appearing, or cases that haven’t had any animal contact. What’s the plan? Suppose we start seeing human cases exported to other countries, and evidence of high severity in certain age groups, alongside growing evidence of human-to-human transmission. What’s the plan? Not ‘what’s a retweetable sound bite that wouldn’t get the reproduction number below 1’. Not ‘what’s a snippet of a pre-2020 pandemic flu plan that assumes vast numbers of deaths and doesn’t account for subsequent innovations in use of rapid tests, digital contact tracing etc’ What, here in 2024, is the plan for dealing with an outbreak of a potentially pandemic pathogen like H5N1?
Colorado reports the 4th human infection with the #birdflu virus circulating in cows. Farmworker. Symptoms like cases 1 & 2 — conjunctivitis. At this point it's clearly an #H5 infection; @CDC will be testing to see if there is enough virus to confirm the N type. Not surprising.
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Warwick University is advertising two Assistant Professor positions, each of which is joint between Maths and Life Sciences. The SBIDER group in Warwick is friendly, collegiate, and an exciting place to build a research group. Come join us! warwick-careers.tal.net/vx/a…
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Make Substack better for maths, so us nerds can communicate more efficiently
Replying to @LRudL_
@substack doesn't allow inline equations. Writing something technical without inline $\LaTeX$ is like writing books without the letter e - fun for some masochists, but some of us actually want to communicate.
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Contact tracing apps are the gift that keeps on giving and we should be devoting way more resources in both research and policy development to these tools. They have the power to revolutionise pandemic surveillance and response.
Popping up from mat leave 👋👶 to share our new paper in @ScienceMagazine. Anonymised data from the @NHSCOVID19app provided rich insights into the drivers of the epidemic, at remarkable speed. ➡️ Quick read: michellekendall.github.io/20… ➡️ Full details: science.org/doi/10.1126/scie…
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What's the best writing or thinking on how COVID-19 could have gone much better? E.g. properly thinking about what the option space was for the UK in Feb 2020 and gaming out what that might have led to.
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With #H5N1 #birdflu spreading amongst dairy cows, one of the most important things to think about right now is what would need to happen for this virus to actually start a pandemic. I'm on a train, so a brief thread...
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Interested in investigating the last 100 years of pandemic history. Any recommended texts? I'm particularly interested in how policy and scientific understanding evolved. E.g. understanding why 2009 didn't turn out as severe as initially feared.
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Proud to announce that I recently submitted my thesis! It has two parts. First, estimating how long people test PCR positive for. Second, using this for transmission modelling with the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey. 1/3
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Hoping to get some of this out publicly shortly. A massive thank you to everyone (on and off Twitter) who has helped in this journey. 2/3
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I am now on the job market. I'm interested in how to mitigate harms from infectious diseases, from a broad range of perspectives. Also open to other impactful work that leverages my skills and experience. DMs open.
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Multiplex, rapid, respiratory virus testing. Are equivalents available in the UK?
Grateful for multiplex rapid test from @Measie_ Europe. 1 swab: #Covid #Flu A/B & #rsv. Had night of fever, took $14 (US) Covid test (-). Then took this $5 test, Voila: Flu A +, all else -. Able to get right med fast. Crazy these aren’t avail in US @BrusJulian @NBCNews @US_FDA
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Fantastic to see rapid test development for more seasonal respiratory viruses Can already see many applications for research and surveillance…!
💡Just received the Fluorecare 6 in 1 combo test🦠 Detecting covid, influenza A&B, RSV, ADV and hMPV at the same time. CE marked for professional use. Great development by @microprofitbio. For inquiries mail to: [email protected]
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CLOSING SOON: PhD position (Lancaster, UK) Pandemic contact tracing data and developing better models of social mixing with @jonread15 @SRileyIDD at @LancasterCHICAS More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/funded-phd-…
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Joshua Blake retweeted
“Improving ventilation is another one of the core strategies that can reduce our risk of catching or spreading respiratory viruses.” Amazing to see this 🙌
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Joshua Blake retweeted
Exciting role @CEPIvaccines for a biostatistician on the epi team cepi.my.salesforce-sites.com…
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