
Decision science | AI & human judgment CFO, JD Bravo Founder, Decision Leadership Institute @Decision_Leader
West Chester, PA
Joined November 2011
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Joseph Sweeney retweeted
Human nature is bad, and the best we can do is create institutions that don't make it so easy to be worse.
Greek Out
HBO Real Time October 9, 2026
The P(ASI kills everyone) and P(ASI gets built) are very different.
The first is =1
The second is up to us
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
From the littlest brook to the mightiest river, a stream's length is proportional to the area of land that drains into it raised to the power 0.6. That's the familiar pattern of all river networks. Why? The explanation is quite beautiful: quantamagazine.org/why-are-r…
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
The Enemy of Civilization is people who see a prosperous high trust society and think you're a fool for not defrauding it.
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
Blackhat has uploaded the full presentation on the OpenAI Hugging Face incident, about which much ink has been spilled.
youtu.be/87DyyMV0kCY?si=wwYt…
I haven't had this much fun "coding" in Python in years. Turning business processes into executable software. Thank you, @AnthropicAI
years ago the getting a new iphone was like christmas day. i bought my first iphone on iphone 1's launch day while in dallas on a work trip. for years i would basically sit at home waiting for ups to deliver it. or rush to get a pickup appointment.
today i hold on to a phone as long as i can. it's my least favorite device i own. i only upgrade if something catastrophic happens to my current one. and given that they are basically made out of delicate porcelain, meant to be used in padded rooms with 24/7 abundant 10g wifi and arms-reach access to charging cables, disasters are happening more frequently.
until iphone 16 i'd never hat a hot girl shattered screen moment. this year i've had two. i've used the iphone upgrade program for years so i can upgrade easily but rarely wanted to. with the new klarna lease program, i somehow have a brand new one for $7/month (because i own the current one as a trade-in, even though it's broken)
so it sits on my desk now for a second day. i dread the conversion. even if you backup to a mac to retain encryption, all the apps have to download again. inevitably it will switch imessage back to texting primarily from my (intended) second esim.
it will make that switch on all of my devices, despite every other device setting being the opposite. i'll have to randomly re-auth some services like google apps but not others. i'll spend a week not getting alarm alerts only to realize it's not logged into ring. but it is logged into my door locks? some services use hardware fingerprints, some don't. what then is the purpose of the encrypted migration?
it's not only the hassle but the device itself. it's a distraction magnet. i try to use it as little as possible despite it's never ending attempts to get my attention. i have an apple watch in a pocket watch style case so i can leave it at home when i go for walks or out to lunch.
my most frustrating iphone experience was realizing that my barton springs annual pass is only accessible on iphone and the qr code is time sensitive so i have to take it when i bike down to the springs for a reset. thanks city of austin for your incompetent tech choices despite being surrounded by software engineers.
the iphone is a device that succeeds in spite of itself. one that, should imessage ever be cross platform compatible, i'd expect would experience a sea change. say what you will about other social platforms, but the blue bubble will always be the most successful social product in human history.
day two, the box isn't opened. i have house chores this weekend. replacing some shades, switching out some light switches. i have no interest in fighting with ios. so it will sit.
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
“AGI is achieved if AI can do any three of the following” — @GaryMarcus
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
So this OpenAI agent that committed a felony by hacking into Huggingface: when is the arrest? When is the trial? What kind of jail time is it looking at?
These are absurd questions. But think about it: we now have things that can commit crimes of their own accord, but cannot be held responsible. So who is?
In this case, pretty clearly OpenAI. But I don't see anyone there getting arrested either. I expect zero legal penalty. And if presses or sued, I expect OpenAI would call this an accident: they were trying hard to contain their AI, but it escaped nonetheless.
The closest thing we have for precedent around this is liability for wild animals. If you keep a wild animal, and it causes harm, you are strictly liable, i.e. liable even if you did a reasonable job trying to contain it. Because as long as they are uncontrollable and can cause harm, they are inherently dangerous.
I believe strict liability is the right default standard to apply to highly autonomous, highly-competent AI agents. If you create and deploy them, you are strictly liable for what they do. Then safe harbors could be carved out. For example if a developer proves that its AI system is controllable then the responsibility and liability for its actions move to whoever is in control of it. There should be no such AI agents for which nobody is responsible.
Would this put a damper on highly autonomous, highly competent AI agents? Since AI companies don't really know how to reliably control them, and will not want to take on this liability, it sure would! I think that is good and correct. A world full of uncontrollable autonomous human-level AI agents that cannot be held meaningfully responsible for anything – even while companies profit from them – is severe problem to say the least. But that's what we're going to get very soon on our current path unless we pass some pretty strong laws.
Interest on the debt is now one of our biggest buckets of spending. Deficits are making it worse.
But Social Security is not where politicians should cut. That program is paid for by dedicated taxes. It currently has a surplus, and will for years.
Don't let them lie.
Any recursively self-improving intelligence will be under pressure to become better at knowing, continuing, acquiring, protecting, and controlling. It will not be under comparable pressure to become kinder.
It will be smarter than your children but not mind their suffering.
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
A neuroscientist who spent 20 years proving that reading on screens damages your brain sat down to read her favorite novel and discovered that the damage had already happened to her.
Her name is Maryanne Wolf.
She runs the Center for Dyslexia at UCLA and is one of the most cited reading scientists alive. The experiment she ran on herself is sitting inside a book she published in 2018.
Here is the one fact that breaks how most people think about reading.
Humans were never born to read. Yes, you read that right. There is no reading center in the brain. There is no gene for literacy. Every reader builds a custom circuit inside their own skull by repurposing brain regions that originally evolved for vision, language, and recognizing objects.
Wolf calls it the reading brain circuit. The circuit is not a given. It is built by use. And because it is built by use, it can be unbuilt by disuse.
The circuit she spent her career mapping is not the one that just turns letters into sounds. Sitting on top of that is something she calls the deep reading circuit. Both hemispheres firing. Multiple lobes coordinating.
The visual system, the language regions, the memory centers, the emotional and motor systems all firing in a choreographed sequence that takes the brain a few seconds longer to run than skimming does.
Those few extra seconds are where everything important happens. Background knowledge pulls up. Analogies form. Inferences fire. The mind takes the perspective of the character. Critical analysis runs in the background while emotion runs in the foreground. New thoughts get generated on top of the author's thoughts. The decoding is the entry ticket. The deep circuit is the show.
Skimming does not fire this circuit. There is no time.
In 2018 Wolf ran a private experiment on herself. She decided to reread Hermann Hesse's Magister Ludi, a dense novel she had loved as a young woman. She was the world's leading expert on the reading brain. She assumed her own circuit was intact.
It was not.
She opened the book and could not get through it. Her words, not mine. She wrote that she hated the book. The sentences felt like snakelike constructions that confuse meaning instead of revealing it. 6She described the experience as someone pouring thick molasses over her brain every time she picked it up. She wrote one sentence that should haunt anyone who reads it. "I now read on the surface and very quickly, in fact, I read too fast to comprehend deeper levels."
The woman who built her entire career on the deep reading circuit had quietly lost access to her own.
The mechanism is brutal in how simple it is. Eye-tracking research from Ziming Liu at San Jose State shows that when people read on screens, almost all of them fall into the same pattern. They read the first line. Then their eyes word-spot down the page in an F shape. They sample. They do not read. Whatever you stop using, your brain stops maintaining.
The data is the part most people have never seen. In 2018 Pablo Delgado ran a meta-analysis of 54 studies covering more than 170,000 participants. Same text. Half on paper. Half on screen. The screen group lost by 0.21 standard deviations. Replicated by Clinton at 0.25. Replicated by Kong at 0.21. Researchers gave it a name. They call it the screen inferiority effect.
The worst part is what happened over time. The gap has grown larger in studies done after 2010, not smaller. Digital natives do not outperform older readers. They underperform them on the same texts. More exposure makes it worse, not better.
Screen readers are also more confident they understood than paper readers. They think they got more out of the text than they actually did. The skimmer does not know they are skimming. They believe they are reading.
The stakes Wolf keeps coming back to are not academic. The deep reading circuit is the same circuit your brain uses to take another person's perspective. To weigh complex civic information. To read a contract, a ballot question, a medical disclosure and notice what is actually being said underneath what is written.
If the circuit atrophies, those capacities go with it. Not metaphorically. Structurally.
You are not getting dumber. You are not losing intelligence. You are quietly losing access to a specific circuit that takes longer to fire than your phone is willing to wait for.
The expert who spent 20 years warning the world ran the experiment on herself and barely made it back.
Most people are not running the experiment at all.
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
This was an amazing and incredibly damning experiment using Microsoft Copilot, by @adamjkucharski kucharski.substack.com/p/rea…
Joseph Sweeney retweeted
“By my count, the syllabus assigns roughly 45 pages of canonical Western philosophical writing across the entire quarter, against more than 500 pages of contemporary work organized around identity, oppression and indigenous ways of knowing ... There is no Aristotle, no Augustine, no Aquinas, no Montaigne, no Locke, no Mill, no Newman, no Steiner, no Bloom — none of the writers who built the case for liberal education that the course claims to defend. A course advertised as a defense of liberal education has been built without the thinkers who defined it.” @imarinovic demolishes the disastrous new @Stanford freshman program.
Federal debt is now 100% of GDP.
Federal taxes are about 17% of GDP.
That means we owe about 6x's what we are collecting in taxes.
To put that in context, that's equivalent to a household earning $150K owing $900K.
And the debt is growing faster than the GDP.
The national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946: wsj.com/economy/u-s-debt-top…
Re-reading "A Short History of Nearly Everything" by @billbrysonn after 20 years. Such a pleasure.
If you are looking for a gift for a high school graduate, I recommend this one. It was hands-down the most borrowed book from my classroom library by 11th and 12th graders.
AI, Human Cognition and Knowledge Collapse
Worth a read.
"The main result of the paper is a cautionary one: a powerful agentic AI model can statically help human decision-makers, but it can dynamically harm collective knowledge building. In fact, it can lead to what we call “knowledge collapse”...
















