PM at a quant hedge fund. Studied mathematics at @Yale & @MIT. Lived in Asia for many years.

New York, NY
Joined January 2019
I don’t know who this guy is, but I think he is brilliant. You should follow him.
SightBringer
@_The_Prophet__
Jan 15
⚡️This is a live containment operation. The strike was real. The reversal was real. This is state-level controlled ignition. There was a greenlight. Then a high-level override. Carrier strike groups moved. Bombers were armed. Evacuation flights were ordered, then stood down. Chalk orders were issued. Logs show “mission called off.” The clock was ticking and the clock stopped. Why? Because something broke the symmetry. Trump went on camera. Iran halted executions. A backchannel was opened via Pakistan. Regional actors like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar intervened to prevent use of airspace. A UN Security Council session was triggered mid-crisis. The airspace closure, the rerouted commercial flights, the military standby - all of it was real. The response was not symbolic. It was surgical. The deterrent message was delivered with maximum ambiguity. Iran blinked. Trump flexed. But neither side collapsed. This was a trial run. The US gained full-spectrum data on Iranian readiness. Command latency. Radar activation. Defensive posture. Iran showed its hand under pressure. The Pentagon watched every move. What the US just did was a dry-run ignition protocol to test reflexes. And it worked. No bombs dropped. No martyrs made. But the field was mapped, the pressure applied, and the exit offered. Trump now controls the pace of escalation. Iran is buying time through signals and intermediaries. The Ayatollah is either evacuating or preparing an internal firewall. Both are collapse moves. The sanctions, the media leaks, the social media info war - they are not distractions. They are phase 2 of a psyops-led siege campaign. Collapse without a missile. Submission through saturation. This is war by other means. The strike is no longer the question. The strike is now leverage. Collapse has entered the slow spiral. No fundamental rescue exists inside Iran. Sanctions are deepening. Capital is fleeing. Water shortages, blackouts, repression - all accelerating. The regime is now hostage to its own stagnation. And everyone at the top of the game knows it. This was not about killing leaders. This was about proving who moves the sky. And now the whole world sees who moves it. The tempo of collapse has entered American control. Not by force. By frequency. The signal has been sent.
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Of course, it’s AI, but so what? It’s brilliant.
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🧵 The world is going through a major transition of power balance and Iran is at the center of this transition 1/ #Iran
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My thread is for Iranians who, for generations, will bear the consequences of every action they take. It asks how they would have reasoned in 1906 and to think deeply, without emotion. This is not a theoretical exercise for outside observers who have no skin in the outcome #Iran
Replying to @m4h007
So you’re saying that the protests are legitimate BUT they are also influenced by external actors?? Perhaps to some degree they are, but so what? The regime has no legitimacy in the eyes of the people. That much is very clear.
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But don’t you think you’re being a bit patronizing towards the countless Iranians who are risking their lives for change? Why not assume their actions are based on a rational assessment of how best to liberate themselves from tyrannical rule?
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Iranians in 1906 had legitimate reasons to protest. That fact does not negate Russian and British interference. Foreign interference and domestic legitimacy are not mutually exclusive. Both can exist at the same time. Acknowledging the first does not deny the second #Iran
Replying to @m4h007
What makes my reply ad hominem? And are you trying to undermine the legitimacy of the protests by suggesting they are the result of an evil Israeli plot?
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So you’re saying that the protests are legitimate BUT they are also influenced by external actors?? Perhaps to some degree they are, but so what? The regime has no legitimacy in the eyes of the people. That much is very clear.
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Replying to @m4h007
I thought you were talking about the situation TODAY. Were you not??
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I usually don’t engage with ad hominem replies, but just to set the record straight for others #Iran
Replying to @m4h007
Not sure why you’re talking about foreign interference. That sounds disturbingly like regime propaganda. What we are witnessing in Iran is an organic popular uprising.
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What makes my reply ad hominem? And are you trying to undermine the legitimacy of the protests by suggesting they are the result of an evil Israeli plot?
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First, in Iran we already agree on which God and which tradition: Shia Islam. That part is not the dispute 1/ #Iran
Replying to @m4h007
Why can't god impart authority to the people? In Shia jurisprudence (or my limited understanding), the Imams have divine authority, but ulema/kings do not inherit authority from Imam Zaman. Ayatollah Sistani certainly doesn't feel that he should be the ultimate authority in Iraq.
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But by formally querying the experts of divine law, it constrains itself so that legislation remains within Islamic boundaries. That is exactly what I have mapped out in my proposed constitutional revisions (see my pinned tweet) 5/ #Iran
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And what if the Iranian people want a separation of ”church and state”? Why would you rule out that model a priori?
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How would you think about English and Russian interference in Iran’s affairs? Would you think they’re Iran’s friends? Would you support burning and killing those in charge of public order? Would you call for people to burn the mosques and doctor’s offices? 7/ (end) #Iran
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Not sure why you’re talking about foreign interference. That sounds disturbingly like regime propaganda. What we are witnessing in Iran is an organic popular uprising.
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🧵 Iran needs constitutional reform: 1-more centralized decision-making, 2-real accountability, 3-institutions that stay attuned to the times. If I were to modify the Iranian constitution, I would start as follows. 1/x
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I’m old enough to have witnessed successful democratic transitions in dozens of countries with radically different starting conditions. Let’s hope Iran can join their ranks…
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BBC, Sky News and ITV entered Gaza this month and witnessed the genocide up close. Yet told an entirely different story of a complex war to viewers. Clinging to Israeli propaganda even as the truth is front of them. My latest in @MiddleEastEye middleeasteye.net/opinion/ev…
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Kelsey Piper
@KelseyTuoc
25 Nov 2025
This is an absurd lie which undermines substantive efforts to improve opportunities for low income students. Academic standards *have* catastrophically slipped. When you lie like this you destroy all your credibility on the topic.
“UC has now been test-free for four years. The sky hasn’t fallen. Academic standards haven’t slipped. What has changed is the student body: More low-income, first-generation and underrepresented students are earning spots without affirmative action.”
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Hmm, you seemed to be making a strong claim to the effect that there’s no correlation between test performance and academic performance. Was that not your claim? And if not, what was the claim?
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Another study here btw. Obviously you can find these yourself so I won’t waste time posting more. Point is, while statistics is indeed devilishly complicated, there’s reason to believe that test scores have predictive power gwern.net/doc/iq/2007-kuncel…
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Replying to @KelseyTuoc
I have to push back on this, as a professor at Big Engineering Program, USA. Standards have definitely slipped as states push to grow grow grow, but I can tell you that both undergrad and grad there is no correlation between any standardized test and future success in the program.
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Are you saying that standardized test scores do not predict academic success? There is an abundance of evidence that they do. Just one example here. nber.org/papers/w33570
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LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025. that’s a huge deal. the implications are far more profound than the threat of the models getting things a bit wrong today.
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Oh please. Try keeping up with the literature on this subject.
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Gender medicine is a threat to children and damaged children are a threat to others. nitter.cf/JonFSchwartz/status/19…
Replying to @wesyang
“Trans people are a threat to society.” Do you seriously believe this??
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The post you’re amplifying demonizes all trans people and legitimizes hatred of an entire group. You have made yourself complicit in that process, your subsequent attempt to inject nuance notwithstanding. In your zeal to identify threats try not to become one
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Replying to @wesyang
“Trans people are a threat to society.” Do you seriously believe this??
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It's a mystery.
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You are right in a sense.
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Tell us what you think the real cause is, Emil.
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Simple economics is damn good at making real-world predictions. Yet, if you only read oped columns, you’d think economics was a failure. Our models are too abstract. Our predictions are always wrong. I push back in the @WSJopinion 👇
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So please predict whether the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months.
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1/ A thread about the class dynamics of air-conditioning in Europe. I believe attitudes toward air-conditioning are class markers in many European countries. Air-conditioning is seen as prototypically American, and that's important.
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I am one of those. Unapologetic, a holdout. Air conditioning is for weaklings, yankees. (When I went to my air conditioned hotel room in Athens to recharge.) But to be honest in Germany it is not really for an issue. It is never really hot. Heat waves are like 30 degree Celsius.
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I’m excited to share our new @Nature paper 📝, which provides strong evidence that the walkability of our built environment matters a great deal to our physical activity and health. Details in thread.🧵 nature.com/articles/s41586-0…
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