@JonA2ii
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Anonymity limited to my Twitter handle. If curious just drop me a DM, I don't hide who I am. Or google A2&i. Of the two names you'll find, I'm the ugly bloke!
Joined January 2023
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When Brexit-supporting Penny Mordaunt is held up as being on the left of the Tory Party it shows how far rightward the party of Pym, Gilmour and Heseltine has slid.
Sad to see a once respected senior officer sink so low.
'I would shoot them,' Major-General Julian Thompson told a documentary about mass immigration to Britain.
Well said Julian
It’s wouldn’t take many
Say a thousand killed over a six month period
Problem solved
mol.im/a/16198861
Germany can't expect to join a programme that is already underway except at the point the programme is at when it joins. They can't expect design/development input or workshare which has already been decided and alocated. They might usefully contribute to /1
The Telegraph story - Germany risks delaying Britain’s fighter jets by two years telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
America is lost. They are no longer an ally. No longer leader of the Free World. No longer to be trusted
So let's get this straight: Russia just murdered over 65 people in Ukraine in less than 48 hours. Crushed a building on top of sleeping families to celebrate Putin's birthday.
And today, the U.S. announces that they are lifting sanctions on Russian diesel and planning to buy some, essentially becoming sponsors of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Just a day after a horrific terrorist attack by Russia that killed so many, and just before the winter when the Russian government screams from all the rooftops that they are going to create a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine by destroying our infrastructure.
This is just such a low and cruel betrayal that it's hard to wrap my head around...
Israel does not have a right to exist as a Jewish religious state within its current/claimed borders, @TimesRadio . That land either needs to be a state for all - Jewish, Muslim & Christian, or needs to be divided into two states, one of which can be the Jewish national home. /1
When asked six times whether Israel has a right to exist, former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett couldn't answer Times Radio presenter @CathyNewman.
The West Bank needs to be free of illegal settlers and part of a Palestinian entity, while Jerusalem probably needs to be divided, or an international city. A yes or no answer to the question "Does Israel have a right to exist?" is simplistic and lacks nuance, @cathynewman. /2
Aerospace Analysis retweeted
חיסול חמינאי: טעות אסטרטגית שאת מחירה אנחנו עדיין משלמים
כפי שטענתי מהרגע הראשון, חיסולו של עלי חמינאי היה טעות אסטרטגית חמורה. לא משום שחמינאי היה מנהיג מתון או משום שלא היה ראוי לפעול נגד המשטר האיראני, אלא משום שההחלטה לחסלו התבססה על הבנה שגויה של המשטר, של תהליכי קבלת ההחלטות בטהראן ושל ההשלכות האפשריות של סילוקו.
א. חיזוק הקיצונים ומשמרות המהפכה: חיסול חמינאי הוביל לעלייתה של הנהגה קיצונית יותר ולחיזוק דרמטי של משמרות המהפכה, שהעמיקו את אחיזתם במוקדי הכוח ובתהליכי קבלת ההחלטות בטהראן. במקום להחליש את המשטר, החיסול תרם להתגבשותה של הנהגה שמוכנה לקחת סיכונים גדולים יותר בעימות עם ישראל וארצות הברית.
ב. חמינאי כבלם בתוכנית הגרעין: בניגוד לתפיסה שהשתרשה בישראל, חמינאי עצמו היה במשך שנים אחד החסמים המרכזיים בפני ההחלטה לפתח נשק גרעיני. הוא אפשר לאיראן להתקדם מבחינה טכנולוגית, אך נמנע ממתן האישור הפוליטי לחציית הסף לנשק גרעיני. הטענות של ההנהגה הישראלית כאילו איראן כבר החזיקה בנשק גרעיני, או שהמלחמה מנעה ממנה להציב נשק גרעיני על טיל ולשגרו לעבר ישראל, שייכות יותר לעולמות המדע הבדיוני מאשר להערכה מודיעינית מבוססת.
ג. אידיאולוג קיצוני, אך מנהיג זהיר: חמינאי לא היה ציוני, לא היה פציפיסט ובוודאי שלא היה ידיד ישראל. הוא היה אידיאולוג אסלאמיסטי שמרן, שראה בישראל אויב שיש להיאבק בו. אולם לצד תפיסת עולמו הקיצונית, הוא היה גם מנהיג זהיר מאוד בכל הנוגע להפעלת כוח צבאי איראני ישיר, ובמיוחד מול ישראל וארצות הברית. החשש שלו ממלחמה שתסכן את שרידות המשטר היה מרכיב מרכזי בתהליך קבלת ההחלטות שלו. ההתעלמות מההבחנה בין קיצוניות אידיאולוגית לבין נכונות לקחת סיכונים צבאיים הייתה טעות יסודית.
ד. זריקת מרץ למשטר שהיה במשבר: חמור מכך, חיסול חמינאי העניק לרפובליקה האסלאמית, שהייתה במשבר עמוק בעקבות גלי המחאה הקשים בתולדותיה, הזדמנות להתלכד מחדש סביב תחושת איום חיצוני. במקום להאיץ את קריסת המשטר, החיסול סיפק לו זריקת מרץ פוליטית ואידיאולוגית, במיוחד בקרב בסיס התמיכה הנאמן שלו. מי שהניח שחיסול המנהיג יוביל להתפוררות המערכת השלטונית לא הבין את עומקם של המוסדות והמנגנונים שעליהם נשענת הרפובליקה האסלאמית.
ה. הישג צבאי משמעותי, אך סכנה גרעינית ארוכת טווח: אין ספק שבמבצע עם כלביא הושג הישג משמעותי בפגיעה בתשתיות הגרעין האיראניות, במיוחד בעקבות התקיפה האמריקנית בפורדו. ראוי להזכיר שכאשר ישראל יצאה למלחמה, כלל לא היה ברור שהממשל האמריקני יסכים לתקוף את המתקן. אולם ההישג המבצעי אינו מבטל את השאלה האסטרטגית. העובדה שאיראן אינה מעשירה כיום אורניום אינה מלמדת בהכרח על כוונותיה בעתיד. להפך, בהיעדרו של חמינאי והבלמים שהציב, ועל רקע הלקחים שההנהגה האיראנית מפיקה מהמלחמה, עלולה להתחזק בטהראן ההבנה שנשק גרעיני הוא תעודת הביטוח האולטימטיבית מפני תקיפה נוספת. פגיעה ביכולת אינה שקולה לפגיעה במוטיבציה, ולעיתים היא אף מחזקת אותה.
ו. הסכנה שלא למדנו דבר: והמדאיג מכל הוא שנדמה כי בישראל עדיין לא הפיקו את הלקחים הנדרשים. במקום לבחון באופן ביקורתי את ההנחות שהובילו למלחמה ואת הפער שבין ההישגים הצבאיים לבין התוצאות האסטרטגיות, נראה שיש מי שמבקשים לשכנע מחדש את הציבור הישראלי בנחיצותה של מלחמת מנע נוספת נגד איראן, אולי עוד לפני הבחירות. זאת, מבלי שהוצגה תשובה משכנעת לשאלה הבסיסית ביותר: מה אמורה מלחמה נוספת להשיג שלא הושג בקודמתה, ומדוע שהתוצאה הפעם תהיה שונה?
השורה התחתונה: אפשר לחסל מנהיג, להשמיד מתקנים ולפגוע קשות ביכולות צבאיות, ועדיין להחמיר את מצבה האסטרטגי של ישראל. חיסול חמינאי ממחיש את הפער המסוכן שבין הצלחה מבצעית לבין הצלחה אסטרטגית. במקום איראן חלשה, מרוסנת ומורתעת יותר, ישראל ניצבת מול הנהגה קיצונית יותר, משמרות מהפכה חזקים יותר, ומוטיבציה שעלולה להיות גבוהה יותר להשגת נשק גרעיני.
הטרגדיה האמיתית תהיה אם לאחר כל אלה נבחר לחזור בדיוק על אותה טעות, מתוך אמונה שעוד סבב של הפעלת כוח יפתור בעיות שהשימוש בכוח עצמו תרם להחרפתן.
@YairGolan1
srugim.co.il/1299027
Aerospace Analysis retweeted
Andy Burnham:
Of the 100 fastest-growing companies in the UK last year, more than half were founded by people who came to Britain.
And let me just say for a moment, we thank them for coming here. We welcome them here.
The next American citizen to fall into Jihadi hands will face a MUCH worse prospect if Hasan's execution is televised.
I'm against capital punishment, in general, but find the idea of public execution even less morally justifiable. I can see some limited justification for execution for high treason, & would support seeing Trump (& Hegseth) dangling from a rope, after proper process, obviously.
Great. Not a massive step forward, but a very welcome one.
So when is IOC going to happen, and how is it defined?
RAF Wedgetail testing continues at Lossiemouth.
WT002 has completed testing at MOD Boscombe Down and joins WT001 for more ground and flight evaluation as the programme moves towards its next stage.
@BoeingUK
@UKArmaments
Good stuff @haynesdeborah - so he was an able seaman - I'd wondered about his rank!
BREAKING: 24-year-old Royal Navy serviceman Teddy Young has been charged with spying for a foreign country after an investigation by counter-terrorism police.
Sky's @haynesdeborah has more on the story.
trib.al/tTwzNBo
It's a great shame that there isn't a Jewish flag, rather than the flag of the State of Israel.
🔴 BREAKING
British Jews threatened with arrest in London by the Police on October 7th while marking vigil for the victims of the massacre while Free Palestine (clearly Pro-Hamas in my opinion) protestors are allowed to march.
Absolutely disgusting.
Via @GBNEWS
Horrifying! Worrying for any nation that fought against Russia, especially those aligned with the Axis side, but including Poland and Finland.
On 6 October, Russia, via Belarus, sharply raised the level of provocation on the border with Latvia. At least 20 migrants were accompanied by armed people in masks who threatened Latvian troops and forcibly directed people across the border. A few hours later, these same men crossed into Latvian territory themselves, damaged an electrical distribution box, removed two surveillance cameras, and retreated to Belarus before border guards arrived.
The operation was designed to test the response threshold of Latvia and NATO to a limited use of force from Belarusian territory: how the military reacts to unidentified armed individuals, how easily a small group can breach the border, and how vulnerable the surveillance system is. The attackers threatened military personnel, crossed the border, and committed an act of sabotage, but avoided open combat. This model allows Moscow to gradually raise the level of violence and test where the Alliance draws the line between a "hybrid threat" and a military response.
In parallel, Russia has long been constructing an accusatory framework regarding the Baltic states. Its structure is as follows: Baltic nationalists were accomplices in Nazi crimes; the current political regimes of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are "neo-fascist"; the Russian-speaking population is their victim; NATO membership has turned the region into a military bridgehead against Russia. The next step in this logic is to present Russian use of force as a response to a threat that the Baltic states allegedly created themselves.
Moscow increasingly describes the current policies of the Baltic states not simply as discrimination against Russian-speakers, but as a continuation of Nazi practices. Putin has stated that in the Baltic states "tens of thousands of people are declared 'subhumans' and deprived of the most elementary rights," while simultaneously speaking of "revanchists and neo-Nazis" who have adopted "the ideology and methods of Hitler's forces." In this way the Russian-speaking population is shifted from the category of a discriminated minority into the category of victims of a policy that Moscow equates with Nazism.
The Russian Foreign Ministry already directly calls the current political regimes of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia "neo-fascist." Maria Zakharova has used the formula "police regimes of a neo-fascist type," and official Russian communications claim that the "rehabilitation of Nazism" has become the ideological foundation of the ruling elites of the Baltics. Moscow links this narrative to decisions on the Russian language, education, citizenship, Russian citizens and the dismantling of Soviet monuments.
From 1 September, Moscow began supplementing political accusations with direct threats of a forceful response. At an official Foreign Ministry briefing, Zakharova stated that Russia's response to further escalation in the Baltic region would be "decisive" and "destructive for them." Five weeks prior to the incursion into Latvian territory,the Russian Foreign Ministry was already publicly introducing the possibility of devastating consequences for the states in the region.
On 21 September, Russia added a legal basis to the propagandistic accusation. The Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation applied to the Tverskoy District Court of Moscow demanding that Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian nationalists be recognized as accomplices of Nazi Germany, involved in war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Soviet people. Materials from the FSB, the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Defense, the State Archive and the Russian Military-Historical Society were attached to the case. The historical narrative was transferred from the sphere of propaganda and memory politics into an officially formalized state accusation.
On October 5, the day before the breach at the Latvian border, a Russian court legally formalized this accusation. Thirteen Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian figures and five organizations - including Omakaitse, Aizsargi, and Pērkonkrusts - were recognized as accomplices of Nazi Germany. The Prosecutor General's Office stated that Baltic collaborators had turned the region into a "killing ground" and were complicit in the deaths of over 1.5 million people.
Immediately following the court's decision, the Prosecutor General's Office applied these accusations to modern Baltic states. It claimed that since regaining independence in the early 1990s, authorities in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have pursued a "deliberate state policy" of distorting history, glorifying Nazi collaborators, and effectively justifying their crimes. Countering this was explicitly described by the Prosecutor General's Office as necessary for the "protection of the national interests of the Russian Federation." Criminal accusations regarding events from the 1940s were converted into an instrument to delegitimize the policies of the three modern states.
At the same time, the Russian narrative is transforming the Baltic states from an ideological enemy into an active military threat. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are increasingly referred to as a "NATO staging ground" from which a strike could be launched against Russia or a threat posed to Kaliningrad. Leonid Slutsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, stated that the Baltic states are becoming not only a military staging ground for the Alliance, but also a "target for Russia's inevitable response." In September, Baltnews had already applied the phrase "target for preemptive strikes" to Lithuania and Latvia.
Belarusian state propaganda is synchronously raising the level of threats. On 26 September, "SB. Belarus Today," discussing the possible deployment of NATO forces and nuclear infrastructure in the region, stated that the relevant country could "in a few seconds turn into a nuclear swamp." In this construction, Minsk is not merely repeating Russian anti-Western rhetoric but normalizing the possibility of the physical destruction of neighboring states.
By late September, Moscow was openly linking the Baltic region to the possible preemptive use of force. On September 29–30, Russian statements regarding Kaliningrad contained warnings about employing the full available arsenal should any attempt be made to isolate the oblast; the phrase "preemptive strikes on decision-making centers" in NATO states appeared in the media space. On October 1, Putin reaffirmed Russia's readiness to use its entire arsenal to protect the territory of Russian Federation. On October 4–5, Peskov reiterated the phrase regarding "the entire available arsenal of weaponry."
By early October, Moscow had effectively finalized an argument that could justify forceful action against the Baltic states. Its logic is straightforward: Baltic nationalists were accomplices to Nazi crimes → modern states glorify them → their political regimes are "neo-fascist" → they persecute Russian speakers → NATO uses their territory as a staging ground against Russia → they threaten Kaliningrad and Russia itself → therefore, Russian forceful action can be framed as a preemptive or defensive response.
The speed of escalation in the second half of September and early October is particularly telling. On September 21, the Prosecutor General's Office launches the case regarding the crimes of Baltic nationalists. On September 24, Latvia and Lithuania are already being designated as potential "targets for preemptive strikes." On September 26, Belarusian state media mentions the possibility of turning a Baltic country into a "nuclear swamp." On September 29–30, Moscow raises the stakes around Kaliningrad and the potential use of force. On October 1, Putin speaks of deploying Russia's entire arsenal. On October 5, a Russian court legally solidifies the indictment against Baltic nationalists, and the Prosecutor General's Office directly ties it to modern Baltic policies. On October 6, armed men operating from the Belarusian side threaten Latvian troops, after which masked individuals enter Latvian territory, damage border infrastructure, seize surveillance cameras, and return to Belarus.
Only the blind could fail to notice this rapid acceleration of escalation. Moscow has already drafted the "indictment" for the Baltic states. The final step is the announcement of a "denazification" operation. We saw and heard all of this before in 2014 and 2022.
Aerospace Analysis retweeted
Fred West's inquiry Fred West finds no bodies and declares him an exceptional patio layer.