$GLXY we wait 🤝
Jlib01 retweeted
$GLXY cooking and executing w or wo you.
$GLXY @galaxyhq #GalaxyDataCenters #HeliosCampus
"The project has already received interconnection approval and is therefore not impacted by the pause in the ERCOT “Batch Zero” process. It has also obtained the air permits, stormwater construction permits and stormwater pollution prevention plan (SWPPP) approval needed from the TCEQ for construction to proceed. Therefore, the directives are not expected to delay the project."
My take:
Amazing timing to receive those important TCEQ permits right before Abbott's halt.
Link:
fitchratings.com/research/in…
Jlib01 retweeted
The stock I'm most bullish on right now is $GLXY
I just raised my price target to $97, a 4.2x from here
I built a SOTP valuation for Galaxy breaking down 3 parts of the business:
- AI data centers
- Crypto brokerage
- Balance sheet
Here's the break down:
1. The AI data center business (Helios+)
CoreWeave signed a 15 year lease on 526MW of Helios (plus two 5 year extensions). That's $1.2B+ of average annual revenue at 90%+ margins, over $30B across the full term
Phase I (133MW) is already online and paying ~$80M a quarter. Phase II starts delivering Q2 2027, Phase III in 2028
Fully built, that's ~$950M a year of EBITDA from ONE tenant. At 10-20x (where data center landlords trade) that's $9.5B to $19B.
Galaxy's entire market cap is $8.9B right now, so everything I discuss below is currently priced at FREE
Then there's Helios II: another 830MW that ERCOT classified as Base Load on Sept 8, while Texas has paused new data center interconnections. Helios II gets a pass, many others do not
There's no tenant signed yet, but power is THE bottleneck right now and this is one of the only big blocks available for 2028. If Galaxy signs it at $2.2M/MW the finished building is worth $13B. At $2.5M/MW (what I think this scarcity gets them) it's $21B
There still no tenant announced for this which is why $GLXY still trades like shit, but thats the opportunity. For one, its not going to be hard to find a tenant and two, the longer they wait the higher premium they get ad demand continues to grow
On top of that there's 4.9GW more in the pipeline (Merlin, Caspian, Selene) that I give almost no value to right now but will bring some optional value later next year
2. The crypto business
Everyone forgets Galaxy made $505M of gross profit and $247M of EBITDA from trading, lending and asset management in 2025, when BTC averaged a price of $100K
This year with BTC <$70K it's roughly breakeven. That's the whole point, this business is a call option on the crypto bull market, which I now believe we are in based on recent price action
If BTC goes to $125K-$150K in 2027 like I expect (could be much higher FYI), I have this at $280M-$470M of EBITDA. At 13-15x that's $4B-$8B of value the market is paying ~zero for today
Also, if this happens, then the profit can be used to reduce dilution for the data center capex.
3. The balance sheet
Galaxy holds $2.5B of cash and stablecoins plus ~$1.2B of crypto and investments (including an Etched stake). Against that, ~$3.5B of debt plus the $3.5B of notes it raised in July to build Phase II
So net debt is roughly a wash today, and it grows to ~$5B as Helios II gets built in 2027
The biggest risk right now from the market is CoreWeave. It's the only tenant and the market is pricing its credit risk (its CDS traded at ~50% implied default odds in July). That's why my bear case uses 10x, but I think thats irrational bc CoreWeave has never missed a payment, its backlog is $129B, and if its credit normalizes the multiple goes to 20x (or more). That one multiple is worth ~$20/share on Helios I alone (my god Galaxy is so under priced)
So here's where it lands (bear / base / bull):
EOY 2026: $15 / $34 / $67
EOY 2027: $23 / $52 / $97
Even my BEAR case for 2027 is at today's price and that assumes no Helios II tenant, BTC at $85K and the lowest multiple in the group. The risk/reward here is unlike any stock on the market
$GLXY is one of my largest holdings in my Milk Road PRO portfolio and I've been adding to it all year on dips. For more calls like this and to see what else is in my portfolio, check out PRO here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
There is no stock out there like $GLXY and its flywheel for a re-rate just kicked off!
Here's what the market is missing about Galaxy
Galaxy sits in one of the most in-demand products globally right now: Land, Power, Shell (LPS)
And it funded this from its crypto business, which is one of the most successful institutional brokerages in the industry + $3.5 Billion of digital assets held on their balance sheet
The flywheel in this business is simple:
Use the profits and balance sheet from its crypto business to fund its AI datacenter (LPS) business as well as receive favourable financing deals
Because the LPS business takes billions of $ to build out and years to finalize and monetize, the funding part is extremely important
The problem in the last 9 months is that the crypto business has been absolutely cooked as crypto fell into a deep bear market
Galaxy's balance sheet shrank, its crypto business took a hit and when analysts start to model out how Galaxy can fund its LPS business, it looked like bankruptcy waiting to happen
As a result, Galaxy went from a $20B market cap down to an $8B market cap. The market valued Galaxy on its Helios l Data Center alone as it is already online, generating revenue with a long-term contracted client in CoreWeave (valued around $8B)
It gave no value to its balance sheet of crypto assets, no value to the crypto business and no value to future Data Centres, likely out of risk it would never happen
However, the one thing that could change everything for Galaxy is for crypto prices and the crypto industry to grow once again. If they can grow their balance sheet, become profitable and show growth in the crypto business, the flywheel kicks off and the rest of the LPS business makes sense once again
As usual in a crypto bear market, analysts never think crypto will comeback and they start modelling in the bear market numbers as the trend moving forward, forgetting how fast crypto can bounce back
If both of these businesses are firing at the same time, Galaxy has optionality for financing and investing across Bitcoin and other digital assets or more AI Data Centres depending on the opportunities that sit in front of them
These are two very powerful industries to have expertise in and to have optionality and preferred access in. The possibilities here are endless
If crypto does find itself entering a renewed bull market, with clear regulations from the SEC and an incoming Clarity Act in the USA, then Galaxy's crypto business will quickly become extremely profitable and a fast growing business that will require much larger multiple than the market is giving it today (which is basically 0)
Add that to the fact that Jensen Haung is telling us that LPS is the most important bottleneck for AI right now, with clear demand for this growing during every earnings quarter, the future data centres to come online for Galaxy will likely be leased at a premium vs. its first contract.
And by the way, they have a contract coming any day now for Helios ll, which is similar MW to Helios l. Which means we could have Helios l valued at $8B, Helios ll at another $8B and an incoming crypto business that should be valued around $2-$3B should BTC remain in the $70s-$80s (with potential for much more)
I think the stock should be valued closer to $40/share today ($15B market cap), but if we see crypto and AI both growing together, we are not far from Galaxy reaching a $100/share ($35B-$40B market cap)
Galaxy is one of the largest positions in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can track that portoflio, along with 4 other top-tier analysts real-time portfolios and research inside of Milk Road PRO right now
We're increasing prices on August 26 but if you subscribe now, you can lock in current prices for life. Why do this bull market alone if you don't have to?
Learn more here: link.milkroad.com/lvwzti
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
Jlib01 retweeted
Galaxy Digital Holdings $GLXY had an incredible run since the bottom, survived multiple bear markets, strong fundamentals & expertise, but somehow & since the IPO, the company boasts one of the most entitled whiniest twitter crowds I've ever seen lol
The long term chart (includes the pre-ipo era) shows how it's currently digesting gains after about a ~1700% run from the bottom & an uplist to the Nasdaq
& while I disagree with Novo's politics, I believe in free speech & can't forget that he built the Galaxy everyone is tweeting about today
Also find it funny that most of the virtue signaling simpletons are outraged by Novo following a wrestler's meme coin or taking his time to announce a tenant but thought it was brilliant to walk out of the Deal with BitGo & not pay what's due
So while I don't doubt the demand for a site of Helios' caliber, or GLXY's ability to lock a tenant, my concern is that management becomes pressured to wrap up negotiation and close a deal on inferior terms just to please or appease the twitter crowd / meet an imaginary deadline instead of focusing on the best outcome/terms for GLXY & shareholders
My 2 cents, & if the handle/sideways holds PT remains $100
"Investing requires qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect"
Jlib01 retweeted
Not saying that it's going to happen
But it's the type of set-up that could bring triple digits
$GLXY
Jlib01 retweeted
$GLXY should easily be $50-$60B today!
That is $125-150 a share on the data center business alone...
$GLXY post Batch Zero base load will have 800MW leased to $CRWV and 1.6GW to be leased out (expecting to hear this week).
We are soooo back that is 2.4GW, which is 1.6GW of critical IT at $2M/MW = $3.2B at 95% margins.
$3B * 25 = 75B market cap less the debt to build at around 16B = $59B in equity value...
Jlib01 retweeted
The best is yet to come $GLXY
Jlib01 retweeted
Don’t worry if you didn’t buy at $18 when the bears said $12 was coming, you can buy now at $26. Don’t worry if you don’t buy now at $26 you can soon buy at $45
$GLXY
Jlib01 retweeted
$GLXY @galaxyhq #GalaxyDataCenters
Something is cooking behind the scenes. Galaxy just formed three new data center related LLCs. Especially striking to me are the LLCs with the word "partners" incl. the GP&LP function! My first thought was they could sell a stake and bring a partner in, for a JV?!
Share your thoughts what you think about those newly formed LLCs 🤝
You can see that those filings are brand new based on the file numbers (e.g. 10740184). The higher the number the newer the filing (form date of the LLCs). BTW: These are confidential filings imo - anyway they couldn't hide it from me 🕵️😤
@austorms @brian_wright21 @samellkay @SimritDhinsa @DougDeason @cferraro06 @novogratz
$GLXY @galaxyhq #GalaxyDataCenters
Do you bring external partners in (e.g. JV) for financing your data center business or why does your newly formed data center related entities contain the word "PARTNERS"? I mean Caspian and Merlin require money, aight?!
Asking for a friend 👀
