@JigsawCap

L/S generalist, DMs open

Joined March 2022
  • Tweets2.6K
  • Following725
  • Followers3.3K
326Media
SOXX October 2026 feels an awful lot like IGV January 2026
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I genuinely believe the market is currently taking a good probability-weighted and long-term scenario analysis view… maybe more so than normal / historically People saying the opposite because of single name and factor vol, but I think the future is just harder to predict rn
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Now that rubber meeting the road on those massive DC plans, going to be interesting to see who the actual bottlenecks are vs who just thought they were… Seems like power/industrial guys are actual bottlenecks, and low quality semi commodities may have a rude awakening
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How is aapl so bad at stopping spam texts? Insane how many I get nowadays
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Has constantly thinking about IQ / what it really means over the last few years made you feel more pessimistic about your casual social relationships? I find I look at everyone through the IQ lens more and more, and it’s often pretty depressing
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Biggest risk to AI diffusion has been normie adoption, and feels like agentic just pushed past the tipping point for ease of use… will be interesting when reprise tools get rolled out in earnest — there are scenarios where this is the biggest inflection yet
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Meant to say enterprise… but I suppose reprise is good enough
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Pretty clear the bubble popping is levered exposure - NOT in valuation/earnings - this bubble stems from loose FCI Warsh changed tone on FCI + net equity issuance reversal = bubble pop catalyst Given fundy backdrop so supportive, it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds
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The bikers in Central Park are worse…
Jigsaw@JigsawCap5 Oct 2024
The amount of gear on the average west side highway runner is outrageous Like, hey loser, you’re running 2.5 10min miles — you don’t need the Ironman recovery pack
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Imagine being levered long AI with the view that the Labs would miss buyside consensus by like 40%+
Rittenhouse Research
@RHouseResearchJun 18
Gerstner @altcap and Altimeter are modeling $300B of combined AI Lab ARR exiting 2027 (the large majority of which is OpenAI + Anthropic).. Have to think their forecast is as good as anyone's given Altimeter just led Anthropic's most recent round and have participated in OpenAI's last 3 rounds.. $300B would be ~10x growth over the course of just 2 years as OpenAI and Anthropic were at ~$25B in aggregate entering 2026. Mind-blowing..
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There are plenty of LT debates to be had, but many high GRR, mid-growth software stocks are now pretty cheap using regular valuation math Not everything will work out, and there will be lots of disruption and change - but likely some good money to be made long from here
Jigsaw@JigsawCap26 May 2022
Lots of discussion about how to value software companies lately, so thought I'd share a few thoughts... tl;dr it actually comes down to GAAP EBIT... @dsundheim 1) FCF, often considered the cleanest earnings measure, is really just a source of funds for SaaS.
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The worst in-laws are the oblivious idiots that don’t suffer fools even though they are usually just as dumb the people they’re assholes to
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Feel like everyone saying this is a great idea. Isn’t this MMT-heavy if no entitlement cuts? Last 5+ yrs showed MMT-lite is an inflation and budget disaster lol Why not just send deficit and inflation both to 10%? Just to feel alive and remember things can go terribly wrong
Jeff Bezos
@JeffBezosMay 20
Thank you. The important part is zeroing out taxes on the bottom half. Best way to put money in someone’s pocket is to not take it out in the first place. Bottom half is only 3% of total tax revenue. But it’s very meaningful to that person. Zero it out.
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2nd order thinking on this communist Korea AI memory tax is that Korean degens will recycle all the dividends back into the stocks, so it’s actually fuel for the Korean degen pump
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I love the arrogance of public markets guys with a LT focus - "We're not traders (eww, gross). We're investors!" Note that almost all public equity market jobs are just moving around non-primary capital and are not actually investing
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Its important to mog the “it’s just math” guys because their math tends to exclude lots of other variables that make their conclusions distinctly and significantly wrong
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To those of you who can’t spell “Strait” correctly — for your own sake and dignity, just start saying “Hormuz” or “SOH” — you’re embarrassing yourselves and just don’t know it
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Whenever you get bearish, just remember, IWM is the one you short… High inflation — shitcos without pricing power Weak economy — shitcos that blow up in recessions High rates — shitcos that can’t handle higher cost of capital LT — shitcos that compound less
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Anthropic can have guardrails, and the gov can choose to use something else But if you don’t think Trump calling them a supply chain risk / threatening to destroy the business is anti-capitalist and unamerican — you’re a moron Obv not his first anti-capitalist move though
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Anyone checked on team #NeverSell lately? Are they sticking to their guns?
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