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7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
here's the filterable checklist for 2026 Topps Chrome Update
docs.google.com/spreadsheetsโฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG823
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Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
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7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Bowman's Best University Football Deep Dive
If you're a college football fan and prefer to not have your university products defiled by NFL players, then Bowman's Best is one of your last safe spaces.
The question is: did Topps give you a legitimate, actual product that you can be excited to jump into? Or did they warm up some leftovers because they know you don't have anything else to eat?
I think I can help you figure out that answer to that. I have some numbers. Let's see where they lead us.
Welcome to 2026 Bowman's Best University Football.
Part 1: The Basics
Product drops Friday, October 30th at 11am CT.
As the only format for this release, Hobby Boxes consist of 4 packs of 10 cards with a drop price of $260/box, up from pre-release pricing of $240/box. This represents an increase of only $10 over last year's drop price.
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total Cards in the Product:
1,498,080
2025 Bowman's Best U: 1,450,000
YOY: +3.3%
Total Boxes:
Hobby- 37,452 (3,121 cases)
2025: 36,250 (3,021 cases)
Though total production is up only a smidge from last year, this product has actually changed quite a bit more than it may appear. Let me show you what I mean.
Total Parallels:
2026- 309,126
2025- 208,914
YOY: +48%
The only added parallels are Blue X-fractors /150 & Gold Lava /50. The vast majority of the extra parallels come from the Base Refractors more than doubling in print run, which in itself I donโt love. But overall, these are not egregious additions. They didnโt pull a 2025 Topps Chrome and pump up every unnumbered parallel under the sun. This is reasonable, and I think it is an improvement.
Total Inserts:
2026- 456,742
2025- 319,275
YOY: +43.1%
Total Rare Inserts:
2026- 5,037
2025- 3,165
YOY: +59.1%
Total Autos:
2026- 154,671
2025- 145,616
YOY: +6.2%
For a product that only increased by 3% in overall size, Topps sure found a way to cram in gobs more goodies. There are so many more Parallels, Inserts, & Autos that Base Card Print Runs decreased by almost 2,000 copies per card from last year.
You'll find that everything worth pulling will now fall at higher rates than they did before. Like a Senior that shows up in the fall with 30 pounds of added muscle, this thing hit the juice hard over the offseason. If you liked last year's Bowman's Best U, you should love this year's version.
Part 3: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates Per Box:
Autos- 4 (Including 1 Relic Auto)
Parallels- 8.25 (Including 4 Base Refractors & 1 Shimmer- Up from 5.75 last year)
Inserts- 12 (Up from 8 last year)
Numbered Cards- 3.5 (Up from 3 last year)
% of Numbered Autos- 70.6%
Rare Inserts:
Best of the Best & Campus Crests both return from last year. In addition, we have Best of High School Tribute, Best of Mascots, & Best of Stadiums.
The combined rate to pull any of these Rare Inserts is 1 per 7.4 boxes (1.6 per 12-box case). This is up from 1 per 11.5 boxes last year.
Part 4: Value Map
$/Card- $6.50
$/Parallel- $31.50
$/Auto- $65.00
$/# Card- $74.25
$/# Auto- $92.09
$/Quality Hit- $97.46
Part 5: Takeaways
The numbers are solid. For a college product to sell, they kind of need to be. Of course, I especially dig the sub $100 per Quality Hit. This means nearly every box will produce multiple low numbered or rare hits and autos. College products arenโt known for earth-shattering singles values, so it needs all the help it can get. This is a great start.
Though I'm not innately familiar with the strength of names on the checklist, I have to imagine Arch Manning is a bigger name than anyone on last year's checklist. And with rumblings of multiple QBs with 1st Round talent potentially declaring for next year's draft, I have to think this checklist is deeper than last year's as well.
If you're bitter about Bowman Chrome U going mainstream, adding all the NFL names, and doubling in price, I think you can breathe easy.
I low-key thought Bowman's Best U was a better product than Bowman Chrome U last year. Much more limited print run, shorter checklist, double the autos, and simply more fun to rip for only a slightly higher price point.
The one slight knock on Best when compared to Chrome is Chrome singles seem to hold a bit more value, but even that is debatable. In almost every way, Best was a better product last year.
But now? You're good. Bowman Chrome U sold its soul. The value just isn't there anymore. That ship has sailed.
But Bowman's Best University is here to make sure you don't miss it one bit. This is the case where the rebound chick is better than the ex ever dreamed of being.
Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?
I'm not here to tell you this is a must stash, that it's absolutely going to skyrocket in price. That's generally just not what college product does.
Despite that, the cheapest you can find a box of 2025 Best U is right at $300 on ebay. Those were $250 on release...and not particularly tough to get for a quite limited product. This isnโt a huge jump, but itโs something. And last yearโs product was weaker.
Of course pre-sales at Big Bully resellers are already at $310/box before the product drops later today at $260 direct. If there were a College Football product that is a safe stash, I'm going to get a little crazy and say this is the one.
I mean, boxes will be provably juicier, the checklist is likely more loaded, and there are more of all the things that make a product fun.
Will I be ripping? Yes.
Will I make a valiant attempt to stash some, but probably end up ripping those too? Also yes.
These should be a blast to rip and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see sealed boxes creep up significantly in price...at least until next year's draft class starts showing up in Chrome NFL products.
So as William Wallace proclaimed in Braveheart... "They may take our Chrome, but they will never take our freedom!" Or something like that.
College football folks, you're good. As long as you have Bowman's Best U, you still have your freedom.
Part 7: Print Runs
Base Card Production:
~5,775 ea (down from ~7,762 ea last year)
Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractor- ~1,500 ea (up from ~725 ea last year)
Shimmer- ~375 ea
Unnumbered Inserts:
Bowman Showpieces (35 card CL)- ~4,280 ea
Bowman Showpieces Shimmer- ~390 ea
Send the House (10 card CL)- ~3,000 ea
Send the House Shimmer- ~375 ea
Tone Setters (20 card CL)- ~3,745 ea
Tone Setter Shimmer- ~375 ea
Workhorse (35 card CL)- ~4,280 ea
Workhorse Shimmer- ~390 ea
Rare Inserts:
Best of High School Tribute (2 card CL)- ~25 ea
Best of Mascots (20 card CL)- ~50 ea
Best of Stadiums (9 card CL)- ~50 ea
Best of the Best (34 card CL)- ~45 ea
Campus Crests (34 card CL)- ~45 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Behind the Seams Dual Relic Autos (23 card CL)- ~150 ea
Best of 2026 Auto Refractors (94 card CL)- ~200 ea
Bowman Showpieces Auto Variation Refractors (34 card CL)- ~150 ea
Prospect Relic Autos (73 card CL)- ~130 ea
Super Saturday Signatures Refractors (30 card CL)- ~150 ea
Workhorse Auto Variation Refractors (32 card CL)- ~150 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026BowmansBestUniversityFootball
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
Always fun to hop on and talk new releases with @The_Jewce_. If you are into Cosmic Chrome, we took a deep dive in preparation for next week's release day.
Check it out on Talking Cards with Grand Salami & The Jewce.
youtu.be/LL_6Dc9ym7Q?si=huh6โฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG822
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โฒ๏ธ 01:40
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
*Exclusions apply
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7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
763 card Ken Griffey Jr. Lot For Sale
Good afternoon fellow Griffey buffs.
I'm looking to thin out the Griffey collection. I have a 4-row box of Griffey cards, mostly lower end.
This lot consists of 763 total cards, all toploaded.
I comped everything and have a complete list of cards and comps. I'll attach some screen shots since I can't attach a spreadsheet. But the screen shots are a bit crowded. If you'd like to verify I'd be happy to send you the spreadsheet and/or photos of any particular cards.
Lot spans 1989-2026, but heavy on the 90s stuff.
Comps out to $4,122.50.
Asking $3,500 shipped. This is right at 85% and I'm covering shipping and I'll make sure it's double boxed.
Feel free to reach out with any questions.
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Bowman Sapphire Football Mini Dive
This thing could have, and probably should have been ridiculously short.
"Bowman Sapphire Football- 32 cards- 401 card base checklist featuring NFL vets, Rookies, and College players- $1,000/box.
๐คฎ
Next."
But what fun would that be?
I'm definitely not going to sit here and tell you this is a buy. There's no way I can talk myself into saying it is. But there are a few interesting nuggets that deviate from the cookie-cutter Sapphire products that we've come to know and overpay for. So I thought it deserved a little attention.
The basics:
Bowman Sapphire drops via EQL today, October 29th, at Noon CT. Topps direct price is $1,000/box.
The usual 8 packs of 4 cards per box, but an unusually large base checklist of 401 players consisting of 100 NFL vets, 100 NFL Rookies, and 201 College players.
Production Numbers:
Total cards:
403,840
Total Boxes:
12,620 (1,262 cases)
Typical Sapphire products run ~1,000 cases. Some emerging sport and non-sport Sapphire products can run 500-750 cases of product. For comparison, 2025 Topps Chrome Sapphire NFL, which I would argue is a more revered and important release than Bowman Sapphire, had the typical ~1,000 case production.
This Sapphire release, along with the recent 2026 Chrome Sapphire MLB, have stretched to 1250-1300 cases of product. Those are the highest production numbers we've seen of any Sapphire product for which odds have been available.
Still super limited, just higher production than what is typical. Which makes me wonder, with the insane popularity of recent Sapphire releases, will Topps continue to push this further and produce more of the big Sapphire releases?
Hit Rates:
Autos: 1.1 (Topps states 1 per box, but it wouldn't surprise me to see an extra auto in an occasional box because there are more autos than boxes produced.)
Parallels/Numbered Card: 3.5
Inserts: 1 per 10 boxes (1/case)
Value Map (based on $1,000/box drop pricing):
$/Card- $31.25
$/Parallel- $284.63
$/Auto- $893.98
$/Rare Insert: $10,000
$/Quality Hit: $211.33
Checklist Dynamics:
This is the main thing I wanted to highlight with this release and where the biggest differences lie compared to most major sport Sapphire releases.
First, I get it. The 401-card checklist is borderline absurd for a Sapphire product. It reminds me of way back in 2022 when Topps Chrome Sapphire MLB had a 700-card checklist with zero autos, rendering it nearly impossible to land the name you actually wanted. I bought those for as little as $125/box not that long ago, and even that's probably a little overpriced. Though with this current Sapphire fever, I'm sure they're selling for at least double that now.
With Bowman Sapphire Football, there is some credence for a larger checklist, though, since they included both NFL and College players.
100 NFL vets- Serviceable.
100 NFL Rookies- Yikes.
200 College Players- Oh my.
This thing definitely could have been trimmed to about half the names and been totally kosher. Fans of lesser known football colleges probably won't mind it though.
The only unintended benefit of all those names? Print runs are low on the base cards. OK, there's one more...more 1/1s, which I'll get to momentarily.
Weirdly, we do not have Sapphire Selections or Infinite Inserts on the checklist, though there are Sapphire Selections Autos. They appear to have been replaced with another rare insert called Treasured Talent, of which there are both NFL & NIL versions. I have not seen renderings of a Treasured Talent yet, but there is serious potential. I hope they look the part. We also still have my favorite of all inserts, Hidden Gems.
Between the two inserts, they should fall almost exactly 1 per case.
With 5 separate auto subsets, every auto is extremely short printed. Similar to WWE & UFC Sapphire, no Auto on the checklist, including the base unnumbered variety, should have a print run higher than 50. Since that's the case, I really wish they would just do away with the base autos and number them all.
Honestly, I really like this for a Sapphire release and wish they would do it for more sports. Base autos in Topps Chrome Sapphire MLB are /199, which is a bummer if you're spending up for a box of Sapphire and your auto pull is a mediocre player /199.
The issue with this one is the size of the checklists:
50 subjects on the NFL Vet Auto checklist
36 NFL Rookies
73 NIL Autos
For a $1k box, a lot of folks are gonna crash out over their auto. Brace yourselves. If you're ripping a box of this, the chances of your auto being abysmal are pretty high.
Probably the most significant detail with 2026 Bowman Sapphire, and why many people will walk away from case breaks and not be completely disgusted, is the sheer number of Padparadscha 1/1s in the product.
Now, we're not talking Panini XR with a metric ton of manufactured 1/1s. At least these are organic. It's a function of the massive base checklist size, 3 different insert subsets, and 5 separate Auto subsets.
With 608 different Padparadscha 1/1s distributed over 1,262 cases, 1 in ~20 boxes should have a 1/1, or 1 in 2 cases.
I'm not mad at it. I dig a nice vibrant Padparadscha 1/1. I think they look stunning, and I don't care how pink they are. Some folks love it. Looking at you @mikbaer. Though I still cringe when most people attempt to pronounce it. At least Topps is spelling it right on most of their odds sheets lately.
So there's the rundown. Say what you will about the $1k price tag. It's definitely a head-scratcher. I think Topps is just trying to cut out the flipper profit. But I guaran-damn-tee you there will be no shortage of hobgoblins trying to sell these for $2k+/box. Run the other way from that mess. I hope they get stuck with every last one of them.
Of course, we can't have even a shortie breakdown without a "What Would the Squatch Do?".
"I'm out".
-The Squatch
Print Runs:
Base NFL Vet- ~860 ea
Base NFL Rookie- ~860 ea
Base Prospects (NIL)- ~860 ea
Unnumbered Inserts:
Hidden Gems Emerald (5 card CL)- ~50 ea
Treasured Talent NFL (15 card CL)- ~32 ea
Treasured Talent NIL (10 card CL)- ~32 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Chrome Autos (50 card CL)- ~21 ea
Base Chrome Rookie Autos (36 card CL)- ~50 ea
Base Chrome Prospects Autos (73 card CL)- ~30 ea
Sapphire Selections NFL Autos (9 card CL)- ~50 ea
Sapphire Selections NIL Autos (9 card CL)- ~50 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026BowmanSapphireFootball
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
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ใใใใใ็ใใพใซๅฝน็ซใคใใฌใซๆ
ๅ ฑใใๅฑใใใฆใพใใใพใใฎใงใไปๅพใจใใใใใใ้กใใใพใโจ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG821
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โฒ๏ธ 02:29
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
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7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
MLB Avengers assemble!
Repost and reply for a chance to win a baseball signed by Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Jacob Misiorowski, Junior Caminero and Randy Arozarena, all of whom starred in an exclusive preview spot for Avengers: Doomsday during the #WorldSeries
ALT Two photos of a baseball with signatures from Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Jacob Misiorowski, Junior Caminero and Randy Arozarena. A red arrow is pointing from one angle ofย the ball to another No purchase necessary. Enter by 11:59 p.m. ET on 10/30/26. Official Rules: atmlb.com/SweepstakesRules
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG820
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โฒ๏ธ 00:46
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
*Exclusions apply
fanaticsapp.onelink.me/ty1p/โฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG818
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๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
*Exclusions apply
fanaticsapp.onelink.me/ty1p/โฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG817
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โฒ๏ธ 02:28
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
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7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Topps Holiday
In keeping up to date with analysis and print run data, sometimes odds just don't tell the whole story. It often requires real world rips to keep the data as accurate as possible. This is one of those times.
Odds do not list Green or Red Foil Holiday Parallels as being an option to pull out of Holiday Megas. However, they are both coming out in droves. So based on this, I'm adjusting some numbers in my original Deep Dive.
Both the Green Foil & Red Foil parallels seem to be fairly consistent at 3 per Mega pack. There are some exceptions, but we're going with 3 of each.
Though this doesn't affect total cards in the product, it does affect base numbers.
Base Production is now ~298,870 per player
Here are the Print Runs:
Red Foil Holiday Parallel- ~86,630 ea
Green Foil Holiday Parallel- ~86,630 ea
Since we just added 6 parallels per pack, this now equates to Megas averaging a whopping 71.75 parallels per box. If not for base cards in other formats, the Red & Green Holiday Foils would actually outnumber base cards.
Mega $/Parallel is now a crazy low 42ยข.
I kinda doubt these will have any value, but we discussed that in the "What Would the Squatch Do?" section of the main write-up if you haven't seen it.
If nothing else, it will add some fun curveballs to any set completion goals you may have.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2โฆ
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25ยข
2) Megas- 30ยข
3) Advent- 50ยข
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Topps Holiday Football Deep Dive
Well, this is convenient.
I barely put a bow on Holiday Baseball before Topps dropped the odds for Holiday Football.
Two Holiday releases. Two days apart. Looks the same. Feels the same. You'd think the differences would be relatively minor.
And you'd be wrong.
As it turns out, these two products have taken wildly different approaches to what's inside the box. And some of those differences are pretty substantial.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday NFL.
Part 1: The Rundown
Holiday NFL releases tomorrow, Friday October 23rd.
Mega Boxes @ $30 are the only format on the football side.
10 packs of 10 cards = 100 cards per box.
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
62,394,000
This represents a 45% decrease in production from the MLB version, which came in at 113,712,600 cards. This production decrease does Not mean you're going to have a hard time getting boxes if you want them. There are plenty.
Total boxes produced:
623,940 (31,197 cases)
This is actually 9% more Megas than were produced for baseball. But the absence of the Tins & Advents accounts for the substantially lower overall card production.
Now let me detail what these numbers consist of and how that compares to Holiday Baseball, because the differences might surprise you.
Total Parallels:
NFL- 6,126,126
MLB- 50,448,546
Remember how people started ripping baseball and somehow 70% of the box was parallels- mostly the Reds & Greens that were not on the odds sheet? Apparently, the football department didn't care for that as they're nonexistent in the NFL release.
Total Inserts:
NFL- 624,040
MLB- 3,477,968
No Ornaments or Making the Nice List to be found in NFL.
Total Relics:
NFL- 0
MLB- 2,375
MLB cut relics by 99.2%. The NFL department apparently looked at that and said "Cowards! We'll finish the job."
I've said it before, but I want to say it again. I'm not a huge fan of relics. They've run their course. However, there is no product that makes more sense for Relics than a $30 Holiday Mega Box. And I'm a little surprised they nuked the Christmas Relics. I mean, can it even be called Holiday without a game-used Santa Claus Relic?
Total Autos:
NFL- 65,872
MLB- 9,699
Well this is interesting. NFL Holiday is roughly half the size of MLB, and within 10% production of Megas. Yet somehow NFL has a 579% increase in Autos over MLB. I'm scratching my damn head about that one. Definitely a win for collectors.
Chromes:
NFL- 622,031
MLB- 598,191
The "Chromes Per Box" rate is very similar between these two. And I know you can't tell from this, but you want to know what's wildly different? Remember the Chrome issues I had with baseball on my recent breakdown?
If you haven't read that, you should.
xitter.cf/WaxMetrix/status/21127โฆ
OK, shameless self-promotion over. Here's what's crazy...you'll be happy to know that NFL has ZERO BASE CHROMES. None.
The most common are unnumbered Refractors & Sparkles. I have to point out, the print run on those two are FAR higher than the baseball versions, but Iโll take those over janky base Chromes any day.
Similar Chrome rates (but w/out base), way more Autos, complete evisceration of already scarce relics. There's your Hit Rates in a nutshell.
Part 3: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates:
NFL Holiday Megas:
Autos- 1 per 9.5 boxes (~2 per case. Remember these were 1 in ~3 cases of baseball?)
Parallels/Variations- ~10/box
Inserts- 1/box
Numbered Cards- 0.32 (1 per 3.1 boxes. Slightly worse than MLB, which was 1 per 2.4 boxes.)
Chromes- 1/box
Numbered Chromes- 1 per 3.9 boxes
Holiday SPs/SSPs- 2.1/box
One distinct change is concerning Holiday SPs. In baseball, we had Front SPs & SSPs and Back SPs & SSPs. For NFL, that list is a little shorter- everyone's favorite Holiday Back SPs, something called Holiday Spirit Variation (SSPs), and Hidden Elves.
From an Insert perspective, again, there are no true Rare Inserts. There are 4 Insert sets (Including Hidden Elves), which will fall at a combined 1 per box. So not "rare" per se, but also not crazy printed either as you'll see in the print runs section.
Percentage of Numbered Autos:
NFL- 11.72%
MLB- 42.66%
I wouldn't consider this of utmost importance in Holiday, but I wanted to mention it since it's quite a bit different than Holiday MLB.
As a whole, there are multitudes more Autos in NFL, but that also means a vast majority of them are of the base, unnumbered variety.
Part 4: Are You a Dirtbag?
I noticed a few interesting additions that are a slight departure from Holiday Baseball.
When I wrote that breakdown, I wasn't sure whether Baseball would have Stocking Stuffer packs. There were a few parallels on the odds sheet that had me wondering. Turns out, the Gingerbread Man, Candy Cane, and Stocking parallels are simply rare, unnumbered cards seeded into regular packs.
Holiday Football is a little different.
The odds clearly show five different "Stocking Stuffer" parallels. And wouldn't you know it, they're the exact same five from last year's Stocking Stuffer packs.
Here's the catch. Nothing on the odds sheet indicates that actual Stocking Stuffer PACKS exist this year. So my suspicion is that, as with baseball, these parallels have simply been mixed into regular packs, giving everyone a shot at them.
I'm almost 100% certain they won't be numbered. And almost 100% certain that most people will have absolutely no idea how rare they are.
And while we're on the subject, Topps has managed to pull off one of the most hilariously absurd parallel troll jobs I've seen in a long time. Same parallel. Two Holiday products. And a difference in rarity that's almost too stupid to believe.
I'll save that little nugget for the Print Runs section.
So make sure to take a good look at the Print Runs section before you go. It will be on my Substack. And maybe get those eBay searches ready. It's not often we get unnumbered parallels with Print Runs this low. There are even unnumbered 1/1s. Allegedly. There could be some seriously sneaky deals on some of these...
...Which brings me to a moral dilemma that I always wrestle with.
Here's the way I see it. Mostly.
If someone lists a card on eBay and you pay their asking price, you've done nothing wrong. If they sell you a card for $14.99 that happens to have a print run of 10, that's not your problem. You put in the due diligence. They did not. And they certainly could have.
But what if that seller is 12 years old and just doesn't know any better? How greasy would you feel snagging what could be a $100+ card for $5 from some kid?
So there's the dilemma. Do you say something? Or do you just hit "Buy Now"?
Me? I typically just buy it. And hope they're not 12. If I don't buy it, someone else will, right?
In retrospect, I might just be a dirtbag. God, I hope not.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card- 30ยข
$/Parallel- $3.00 (MLB- 42ยข)
$/Auto- $284.16 (MLB- $1,768.50)
$/# Card- $93.87 (MLB- $73.17)
$/# Auto- $2,424.59
$/Chrome- $30.00
$/Quality Hit- $168.75 (MLB- $206.13)
Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?
In most ways, it's pretty clear that Holiday Football is superior to Holiday Baseball. Except one big one, of course. The checklist.
The 2026 baseball rookie class is ridiculously deep. Football? Not so much.
But, as I mentioned in the baseball write-up, you're not ripping Holiday Football because of all the potential nukes. I'm going to repeat myself here because I think it's important. And because it's Holiday.
If you've got someone pretty cool to share this hobby with, consider yourself fortunate. This is the time to rip for the sheer enjoyment of it. As my son and I will be doing.
These are not a stash, a flip, or a monetary investment. They're a cheap way to spend time with someone you care about. Make it happen.
Happy Holidays.
Part 7: Print Runs
Base Card Production:
~370,520 ea
As much as I'd love to share these potentially lucrative little print run treasures with the millions of folks on X,
I can't just make it that easy.
Don't worry, the full print runs are posted on my Substack:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2โฆ
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayNFL
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2โฆ
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25ยข
2) Megas- 30ยข
3) Advent- 50ยข
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Topps Holiday Baseball:
SP, SSP, and Variations Guide
Been seeing a lot of questions about Topps Holiday Baseball pop up. So I made a little guide that should help navigate you through some of the common questions.
It's photo-heavy, so I can't post the whole thing here. Here's a link to the post on my Substack.
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2โฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG816
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๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
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๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
โฒ๏ธ 01:57
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
*Exclusions apply
fanaticsapp.onelink.me/ty1p/โฆ
Quad Goals by @Fanatics
#QG814
๐ง๐ง๐ง๐ง
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ฉ
๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
โฒ๏ธ 01:39
Think you can top that?
Download the Fanatics app to play & share your results for a chance to win $50 FanCash* in this #sweepstakes!
*Exclusions apply
fanaticsapp.onelink.me/ty1p/โฆ
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
Took a little time earlier to check out some of the new 2026 Panini Prizm Preferred baseball boxes.
Full case rip is live for anyone that has too many hours in their day.
youtu.be/tqgxwojxaHM?is=mlpzโฆ
7311 ๐ $MON retweeted
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2โฆ
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25ยข
2) Megas- 30ยข
3) Advent- 50ยข
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB