@JessicaMenton

Deputy team leader & senior equities reporter for US stocks @business. Formerly @USATODAY @WSJ. Proud Texan living the dream in NYC. @TAMU alumna. Views mine.

 New York, NY
Joined June 2012
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312Media
An equal-weight version of the Nasdaq 100 $NDXE trailed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index $SPW by nearly 4.5 percentage points in the past five sessions — its largest weekly underperformance relative to its counterpart since November 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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The equity positioning gap between discretionary money managers and computer-driven funds using systematic strategies is now the second-widest since 2020, Deutsche Bank AG data show bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The S&P 500 Index hasn’t posted a 1% decline in 53 trading sessions through Tuesday, marking the longest such stretch since January 2020, data compiled by Bloomberg show. $SPX has also now gone 89 sessions without a drop of at least 2% — its second-longest stretch in a year.
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The S&P 500 hasn’t suffered a 1% decline in 52 sessions through Monday — tied for its longest stretch since July 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. If the equities benchmark goes 53 sessions without a 1% drop, it would mark the longest such stretch since January 2020.
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On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index’s $SPX streak without a 1% decline reached 49 sessions, its longest stretch since July 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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The gap between index-wide calm and single-stock volatility is nothing new for traders, but lately it’s grown extreme, reaching the widest level since 2000, data compiled by Macro Risk Advisors show bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Traders have offloaded hedges and loaded up on upside calls. A one-month, 25-delta put-to-call skew on $SPX sits in the bottom 5th percentile of observations, per Cboe’s Mandy Xu. And 40% of the top $SPX 100 stocks trade with an inverted call skew — a sign of extreme bullishness.
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Jessica Menton retweeted
Daily Chartbook
@dailychartbookSep 24
Investors have "added $22 billion into technology-focused US exchange-traded funds this quarter, compared with $4.6 billion into the rest of the market" @JessicaMenton
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$SPX dropped 0.4% on Wednesday, its sixth straight decline following a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. That’s the longest stretch of losses since 2018, when the equities benchmark posted declines for seven consecutive policy decision days, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
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An equal-weight version of the Nasdaq 100 $NDXE is trailing the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index $SPW by nearly seven percentage points in July, on track for its largest monthly underperformance relative to its counterpart in history, Bloomberg data going back two decades shows.
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$SPX earnings in the first half of 2026 are expected to reach 28%, the highest rate for a January-June period since 2004, excluding the rebounds after the pandemic and the GFC, according to data compiled by Wendy Soong, a BI equity strategy analyst bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Still in the very early innings of earnings season, more S&P 500 companies are raising their outlooks than maintaining or cutting them. The measure, known as profit guidance momentum, has climbed to a record in Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 2011.
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Options traders appeared to be getting ready for volatility even before Tuesday’s drop. Take open interest in VIX call options relative to puts, a ratio that climbed to its highest level of the year in a sign of increased demand for downside SPX protection bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The cost of insurance against a 10% drop in the S&P 500 Index in the next month touched the lowest level in more than a year relative to contracts that profit from a similarly sized rally, options-market data compiled by Bloomberg show. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Subsiding anxiety has pushed a gauge of one-week implied price swings to trade below the expected volatility a month from now. The relationship between the two inverted earlier in June, signaling anxiety around the here-and-now was higher than it was for the future.
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One-month skew, a measure of demand for options to protect against a drop in the S&P 500, has climbed from the lowest in a year to a 72nd percentile of observations, according to data compiled by Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Another sign of increased demand for downside protection can be seen with the Cboe’s index put-to-call ratio, which has risen to match its highest level since September. The opposite has been happening on a single-stock level: investors have been monetizing those hedges.
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Traders nervous about a further drop in US stocks in the coming weeks are loading up on downside protection bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Costs to Hedge the $9 Trillion S&P 500 Rally Jump Ahead of Fed

Sentiment in the US stock market has shifted quickly from fear of missing out to fear of getting wiped out.

bloomberg.com
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After rising 1.1% early in the day, $SPX reversed gains to trade down as much as 2.3% — the gauge’s second-biggest swing since the Trump administration paused implementing sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries in April 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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The SOX, home to chip bellwethers like Nvidia, Intel and AMD, trailed the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) by more than 11 percentage points on Friday — its widest underperformance in history relative to its counterpart, per data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2011.
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