Sun Park retweeted
Vascular aging...what it is...and how to fight it....a great review...
ijbs.com/v22p7686.pdf
Sun Park retweeted
In the latest issue! Oligodendrocytes in central nervous system health and disease dlvr.it/TVmnbp
Sun Park retweeted
Optogenetics - activating specific neurons using light-sensitive proteins - wins the Nobel!
Here's a great demonstration:
Shining a light on this mouse activates the very specific subset of neurons that makes it shake (like a wet dog) to dry off.
BREAKING NEWS
The 2026 #NobelPrize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel “for their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics.”
Sun Park retweeted
A net price model improves plan economics by about $1.25 PMPM versus traditional POS rebates due to the time value of money to the plan.
---
A new Milliman white paper compares three ways commercial plans can handle manufacturer rebates:
💵 Retrospective rebates (most common now): The plan receives rebates after claims are filled, typically three to six months later. This gives the plan flexibility, but members don’t see the rebate when they pay at the pharmacy.
🏪 Traditional point-of-sale (POS) rebates: Estimated rebate value is applied at the pharmacy counter. Members may pay less, but the plan typically funds the arrangement through a fee or reduced POS rebate, and later reconciliation is still needed.
📉 Net price model: The manufacturer passes the rebate value through as a lower drug price at the counter. The plan avoids the separate funding cost in the traditional POS model.
---
In Milliman’s illustrative high-deductible plan, member cost sharing fell about 15% under both the traditional POS and net price models.
The transition also changes plan cash flow:
↳ In Year 1, modeled plan liability was about 3.5% lower with traditional POS rebates and 5% lower with the net price model.
↳ By Year 2, modeled plan liability under both POS approaches was ~8%-9% higher than under the retrospective model once the prior-year rebates had run out (remember the retrospective rebates were still flowing in for part of year 1).
↳ The net price model’s advantage over traditional POS rebates came from the time value of money: about $1.25 PMPM.
The math for the increased plan liability matches our breakdown on rebates in a past blog: drugch.nl/3W5SoSb
The exact increase in plan liability under the net price model is the reduced OOP cost for the patient at the pharmacy.
---
These are illustrative results based on specific assumptions, including a 7.5% interest rate, 25% rebates, 20% coinsurance, and a six-month rebate delay. They show why comparing only the drug’s net cost can miss the value of timing and cash flow.
Are there any other models that give plan sponsors the best balance of member savings, predictability, and long-term cost?
🔗 Source: Milliman milliman.com/en/insight/pbm-…
Sun Park retweeted
Discovery and engineering of avian R2 retrotransposons for all-RNA-mediated targeted DNA integration in human cells nature.com/articles/s41587-0…
Sun Park retweeted
ANTI-NMDAR ENCEPHALITIS — what has changed?
Think: psychiatric symptoms → seizures → dyskinesia/catatonia → autonomic instability ± hypoventilation
• Pathogenic antibody: IgG anti-GluN1 (NR1)
• CSF testing > serum-only testing
• EEG: diffuse slowing/GRDA; extreme delta brush is characteristic, not mandatory
• Search for ovarian teratoma
• Treat early: steroids + IVIG/PLEX → rituximab if inadequate response
• Recent multicentre data: rituximab associated with lower relapse risk
• ~80% achieve favourable functional outcome, although cognitive/psychiatric sequelae may persist
And SLE? Related biology, different antibodies.
In lupus, anti-dsDNA antibodies may cross-react with GluN2A/GluN2B (anti-NR2) and have been associated with NPSLE phenotypes.
But: anti-NR2 ≠ classic anti-GluN1 anti-NMDAR encephalitis and is not a reliable standalone biomarker for NPSLE.
Clinical pearl: In SLE with acute psychosis, seizures, dyskinesia or encephalopathy, don’t automatically label it NPSLE — consider anti-NMDAR encephalitis and test CSF.
DOI: 10.1016/j.molmed.2025.09.005
10.1212/NXI.0000000000200395
10.1038/nm1101-1189
#AntiNMDAR #AutoimmuneEncephalitis #SLE #NPSLE #Neuroimmunology #Rheumatology
🤖 Made with AI
Sun Park retweeted
Senescence-modulating nanoparticles can selectively deliver drugs to a subset of senescent cells, according to a new Science study. This targeted approach remodels the microenvironment of fibrotic tumors and makes them responsive to immunotherapy.
Learn more in a new #SciencePerspective: scim.ag/4z7CuFm
Sun Park retweeted
The top cancer success stories of the past 50 years, by the numbers
nature.com/articles/d41586-0…
Sun Park retweeted
COPD trial wins spur broad respiratory hopes
nature.com/articles/d41573-0…
AstraZeneca’s tozorakimab reduced disease flare ups in patients with COPD, suggesting IL-33-targeted antibodies could offer broad potential in lung diseases. Read about the COPD pipeline in this news feature
Sun Park retweeted
AI Drug Discovery Is Becoming a Bottleneck Trade
I get excited when an industry starts going through a real regime change. AI drug discovery (“AIDD”) increasingly looks like one of those moments.
Two things are happening:
1/ Upstream: the frontier AI labs are piling in.
2/ Downstream: The supply chain is clearly moving.
Supply-chain checks suggest the upstream picks-and-shovels of discovery and early preclinical R&D are starting to feel the increase in experimental volume.
DNA → protein → assays → sequencing → automation → preclinical testing
Names across that stack include $TWST , @GenScript , $ILMN , $TXG , lab-automation vendors and CROs.
$TWST expects triple-digit percentage growth in AI-enabled drug-discovery orders in FY26, and another year of triple-digit order growth in FY27.
@GenScript's AIDD business doubled YoY in 1H26. Its current platform advertises industrial-scale validation of 4,000+ designs/day, with integrated sequence-to-data workflows. Our channel checks suggest the ramp is moving even faster: roughly 8,000 designs/day currently, with a path toward ~16,000/day by YE26.
---
Why does AI drive more wet-lab demand?
1/ AI makes hypothesis generation almost free → way more shots on goal.
The bottleneck is moving from expert-driven design to biological validation.
2/ AI models need continuous experimental feedback — and both good and bad data are useful.
Traditionally, only the highest-conviction A+ candidates might get pushed into expensive validation. With AI, even the B/C candidates can be valuable because failed experiments generate training data.
@GenScript has said its sequence-to-binding workflow can return data in 4–7 days, and that faster cycle times matter because AI models depend on continuous experimental feedback.
@Anthropic is a clean example. @claudeai designed 1,320 protein binders. @adaptyvbio converted those digital sequences into DNA, expressed the proteins and tested binding. Only 354 actually bound. And the 966 failures are not wasted. They are useful negative labels: what does not express, what does not bind, what has poor affinity. Those results help train the next model iteration.
3/ Wet labs are no longer just making drugs. They are making training data.
$TWST / @GenScript increasingly look like biological data foundries.
$TWST explicitly talks about generating model-ready data from AI-designed sequences. In some workflows, the customer may care less about receiving the physical protein than about getting structured experimental results back into the model.
Traditional drug discovery asks: “Does candidate X work?”
AI drug discovery also asks: “What can this experiment teach the model?”
---
TAM of AIDD
If AI is simply a better R&D tool, the relevant spending pool is the $300–400B of annual global pharma R&D. If AI meaningfully increases the number of viable drug programs, the opportunity is larger because it expands downstream demand for DNA synthesis, protein production, assays, and preclinical work.
Near term, we can also size demand from AI-company spending. If Anthropic reaches $80B of ARR in 2026 and spends just 1% on AIDD, that alone would imply ~$800M of annual investment.
---
Trade setup
This is a trade that could have long legs. It’s hard to really stop working until PhaseI/II results (2028+)
It smells a lot like the bottleneck trade we just saw in semis: GPUs → HBM → networking → power/cooling. In biology, It basically follows the drug discovery process downstream: AI models → designs → DNA/protein → assays → preclinical capacity.
After the upstream picks-and-shovels, animal testing could become the next bottleneck. Monkey prices are already near prior highs and CRO capacity is tight. AIDD pushing more candidates into preclinical development would only add demand.
?? But clinical trials are still the bottleneck?
This is the biggest pushback I keep coming back to. No matter how fast discovery becomes, drugs still need to go through preclinical → Phase I → Phase II → Phase III → approval. You still need patients, time and capital.
But that doesn’t mean the bottleneck trade won’t work. More viable candidates — especially with higher success rates — still means more demand throughout the development process.
And who knows: clinical trials themselves may eventually be optimized by AI.
?? What breaks the trade?
Near term, the picks-and-shovels trade breaks if experimental budgets stop growing, AI-generated designs don’t translate into useful wet-lab hits, or capacity catches up too quickly.
Longer term, the thesis breaks if AI drugs look great in discovery / Phase I but fail at normal rates in Phase II/III. That is why Phase II matters so much.
?? Milestones
Late 2026–2027: first Isomorphic-designed drugs enter human trials; more AI-native programs move into IND-enabling work / tox.
2028–2030: clinical trial results start telling us whether AI-designed drugs actually perform better than conventional drugs.
Calling all the "bottleneck bros". :) @jukan05 @zephyr_z9 @aleabitoreddit @ParadisLabs
+++
More comprehensive analysis: robonomics.substack.com/p/ai…
Sun Park retweeted
🧬💣 Antibody–drug conjugates were designed as “magic bullets.” But a new 2026 JCI Review argues that the most successful ADCs are not really precision missiles—they are hybrid therapies combining targeted distribution with chemotherapy-like, spatially distributed killing.
That distinction may explain why ADCs have transformed breast cancer treatment.
ADC ≠ antibody + chemotherapy
Instead:
ANTIBODY
determines where the drug preferentially travels
LINKER
determines where/when payload is released
PAYLOAD
determines what happens after release
TUMOR MICROENVIRONMENT
determines how far the effect spreads.
Guo & Ellisen therefore propose a more nuanced view:
ADCs are targeted primarily in BIODISTRIBUTION—not necessarily in CYTOTOXICITY. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
That may be the key conceptual shift in this excellent review.
🎯 The original ADC model was simple
Paul Ehrlich's “magic bullet” concept:
ANTIBODY
↓
tumor antigen
↓
internalization
↓
lysosome
↓
payload release
↓
TARGET CELL DIES
A conventional ADC contains:
antibody
linker
cytotoxic payload.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
But modern ADC biology is much messier—and more interesting.
Today's effective ADCs can also act through:
EXTRACELLULAR PAYLOAD RELEASE
BYSTANDER KILLING
Fc-MEDIATED IMMUNITY
IMMUNOGENIC CELL DEATH
TARGET-INDEPENDENT UPTAKE
meaning an antigen-positive cell may function partly as a:
LOCAL DRUG-DELIVERY HUB
rather than the only cell destined to die. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
🔥 The clearest example: T-DM1 vs T-DXd
Both target:
HER2
and both use trastuzumab.
Yet their clinical behavior is dramatically different.
T-DM1
HER2 antibody
noncleavable MCC linker
DM1 tubulin inhibitor
DAR ≈ 4
membrane-impermeable payload
→ essentially NO BYSTANDER EFFECT
versus
T-DXd
HER2 antibody
cathepsin-cleavable linker
DXd TOP1 inhibitor
DAR ≈ 8
membrane-permeable payload
→ STRONG BYSTANDER EFFECT.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered… 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
And the clinical difference is substantial.
In DESTINY-Breast03:
T-DXd PFS = 25.1 months
versus
T-DM1 = 7.2 months
and in DESTINY-Breast05, 3-year invasive disease-free survival was:
92.4% vs 83.7%.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Same antibody.
Same target.
Very different drug.
That tells us something fundamental:
THE PAYLOAD–LINKER SYSTEM CAN MATTER AS MUCH AS THE ANTIBODY.
💥 BYSTANDER KILLING changed the meaning of “HER2-targeted”
T-DM1 largely requires:
HER2⁺ CELL → INTERNALIZATION → DEATH.
But T-DXd can release membrane-permeable DXd that diffuses into neighboring:
HER2-low
or even
HER2-negative cells.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
This helps explain one of the biggest conceptual changes in breast oncology:
HER2 is no longer merely an oncogenic driver.
For an ADC, HER2 can also function as:
A DELIVERY ADDRESS.
That is why T-DXd works in:
HER2-low
and even
HER2-ultralow
breast cancer populations that would historically not have been considered candidates for HER2-targeted therapy. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
🧬 The same logic applies to TROP2 ADCs
The FDA-approved breast cancer ADC landscape discussed in the review includes four major agents:
T-DM1 → HER2 / DM1
T-DXd → HER2 / DXd
Dato-DXd → TROP2 / DXd
SG → TROP2 / SN-38.
Three of these use:
TOP1 INHIBITOR PAYLOADS
and support bystander killing. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
In metastatic TNBC, sacituzumab govitecan transformed treatment.
In ASCENT:
median PFS
5.6 vs 1.7 months
median OS
12.1 vs 6.7 months
versus chemotherapy. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
The emergence of these drugs is particularly important because TNBC historically lacked strong target-selective therapeutic options.
🧪 LINKER chemistry may be the hidden pharmacology of ADCs
Linkers determine:
WHERE
and
WHEN
the payload becomes pharmacologically active.
Noncleavable linker:
ADC → internalization → lysosomal degradation → payload
Cleavable linker:
ADC → protease / acidic pH / reducing environment → payload release
and potentially:
EXTRACELLULAR RELEASE.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
This means ADC activity does not necessarily require every antibody molecule to enter a cancer cell.
Extracellular proteases in the TME may cleave some linkers before internalization.
For SG, acidic conditions can promote linker hydrolysis.
Thus:
TME BIOLOGY BECOMES PART OF ADC PHARMACOLOGY.
⚖️ More payload is NOT always better
Another important concept is:
DAR — drug-to-antibody ratio.
Intuitively:
higher DAR
→ more payload
→ better ADC.
But biology disagrees.
High DAR also causes:
hydrophobicity ↑
aggregation ↑
clearance ↑
tolerability ↓.
And the authors discuss the fascinating:
“SATURATION FRONT”
phenomenon.
High-payload/high-affinity ADCs can bind rapidly to cells around tumor vessels.
That creates:
PERIVASCULAR SATURATION
and prevents deeper tumor penetration. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
So paradoxically:
MORE DRUG PER ANTIBODY
can sometimes mean
LESS EFFECTIVE TUMOR DISTRIBUTION.
🤯 And perhaps <1% reaches the tumor
One particularly sobering observation in the review:
on-tumor ADC distribution is typically <1% of the administered dose.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
That alone challenges the simplistic “precision missile” metaphor.
Most ADC molecules do not end up neatly delivering their payload exclusively to antigen-positive cancer cells.
This also helps explain why:
OFF-TUMOR TOXICITY
remains central to ADC pharmacology.
⚠️ Toxicity is often NOT caused by target expression
Consider T-DXd.
Its most concerning toxicity is:
INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASE / PNEUMONITIS
reported in up to ~15% of patients in the literature reviewed here.
Yet the review emphasizes that this appears largely:
TARGET-INDEPENDENT
rather than simply HER2-mediated toxicity in lung epithelium.
Preclinical work points toward ADC uptake by:
ALVEOLAR MACROPHAGES.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Likewise, T-DM1-associated thrombocytopenia can involve:
FcγRIIa-mediated uptake
or
macropinocytosis
by megakaryocytes. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
So ADC toxicity depends on:
TARGET
LINKER STABILITY
PAYLOAD
Fc BIOLOGY
NONSPECIFIC CELLULAR UPTAKE.
🧠 Then comes the major biomarker problem
We currently select ADCs largely using:
TARGET EXPRESSION.
But target abundance is an incomplete biomarker.
ADC efficacy can depend on:
antigen abundance
antigen heterogeneity
internalization
receptor recycling
lysosomal processing
linker cleavage
payload sensitivity
efflux transporters
apoptosis competence
tumor penetration.
The diagram in Figure 2, page 5 captures this beautifully. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
So:
HER2 IHC ≠ COMPLETE ADC BIOMARKER
and
TROP2 IHC ≠ COMPLETE ADC BIOMARKER.
🔄 Worse: the target itself changes during treatment
HER2 is not static.
Treatment pressure can shift tumors between:
HER2-positive
↔
HER2-low
↔
HER2-zero.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
After T-DXd progression:
49%
of paired patient samples reportedly showed HER2 downregulation,
and more than half of those showed:
COMPLETE HER2 LOSS.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Resistance can also occur without antigen loss through HER2 binding-site mutations such as:
V597M
P593R
which preserve surface expression but reduce trastuzumab binding.
So a biopsy saying:
“HER2 PRESENT”
does not necessarily mean:
“T-DXd CAN STILL BIND EFFECTIVELY.”
💣 PAYLOAD resistance may be equally important
A tumor can preserve the ADC target but become resistant to its warhead.
Examples include:
lysosomal dysfunction
SLC46A3 loss
caveolin-mediated trafficking changes
STAT3 activation
PLK1 activation
ABCC1 drug efflux.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
And perhaps most strikingly:
TOP1 MUTATIONS
were detected in:
12.9%
of patients progressing after TOP1i ADCs
versus
0.7%
in ADC-naive breast cancer.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Patients harboring these mutations had dramatically shorter responses to subsequent TOP1i ADCs:
52 vs 455 DAYS.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
That provides a mechanistic explanation for:
ADC CROSS-RESISTANCE.
🔁 This makes ADC SEQUENCING a major clinical problem
Suppose a patient progresses on:
T-DXd
HER2 → DXd
Should we switch to:
SG
TROP2 → SN-38?
The antibody target changes.
But both payloads inhibit:
TOP1.
Therefore:
TARGET SWITCH ≠ MECHANISM SWITCH.
Real-world analyses suggest cross-resistance is particularly problematic when sequential ADCs share payload mechanisms. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
One multicenter study cited in the review found approximately:
different payload class → ORR 22.6%
same payload class → ORR 5.3%
although PFS remained similar and these data remain retrospective. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
This suggests future ADC sequencing may require something analogous to antimicrobial resistance testing:
WHAT TARGET REMAINS?
WHAT PAYLOAD IS THE TUMOR STILL SENSITIVE TO?
🧬 A future ADC biopsy may therefore need MULTI-DIMENSIONAL profiling
Not simply:
HER2 = 1+
but perhaps:
HER2 abundance + spatial heterogeneity
TROP2 abundance
binding-site mutation status
TOP1 status
ABCC1 expression
lysosomal function
SLC46A3
DNA repair state
TME penetration
immune context.
The review specifically highlights:
quantitative immunofluorescence
spatial antigen mapping
and
AI-assisted digital pathology
as emerging approaches beyond conventional categorical IHC. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
🛡️ ADCs may also function as IMMUNOTHERAPY
TOP1 inhibitor payloads can trigger:
IMMUNOGENIC CELL DEATH
including:
calreticulin exposure
HMGB1 release
ATP release
leading to:
dendritic-cell activation
→ antigen presentation
→ T-cell priming.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
The antibody component can additionally promote:
ADCC
via NK cells
and
ADCP
via macrophages.
Figure 3 on page 6 nicely illustrates how bystander killing, extracellular payload release, ADCC, ADCP, immunogenic cell death, stromal barriers and abnormal vasculature all interact within the TME. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
So ADCs are potentially:
TARGETED DELIVERY
CHEMOTHERAPY
IMMUNE MODULATION.
🔥 ADC + ICI combinations are already testing this idea
In first-line PD-L1-positive advanced TNBC:
SG + pembrolizumab
improved PFS over chemotherapy + pembrolizumab in ASCENT-04.
And in BEGONIA:
Dato-DXd + durvalumab
produced approximately:
80% ORR
regardless of PD-L1 expression. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
But the story is not universally positive.
T-DXd + nivolumab has so far produced response rates broadly comparable with historical T-DXd monotherapy.
And DAISY biomarker analyses did not show a clear increase in granzyme-B⁺ CD8 T cells during T-DXd therapy. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
So:
ICD IN MICE ≠ GUARANTEED ICI SYNERGY IN HUMANS.
That translational distinction is important.
🧬 Another rational combination: ADC + PARP inhibition
TOP1 inhibitors trap:
TOP1 cleavage complexes
on DNA.
PARP inhibition can further prevent repair of this damage.
Thus:
TOP1i ADC
PARPi
=
DNA DAMAGE AMPLIFICATION.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
The interesting pharmacological idea is that ADC delivery may create a larger:
TUMOR : NORMAL PAYLOAD GRADIENT
allowing sequential ADC/PARPi dosing that might be too toxic if both drugs were delivered systemically.
🚀 But the FUTURE of ADCs may look nothing like chemotherapy
This is perhaps the most exciting part of the review.
The next generation expands along:
THREE AXES
1️⃣ NEW TARGETS
Beyond HER2 and TROP2:
HER3
Nectin-4
mesothelin
FOLR1
B7-H3
B7-H4
Claudin 18.2
LIV1
ROR1/ROR2
tissue factor.
And even:
CANCER-ASSOCIATED FIBROBLASTS
or
ENDOTHELIAL CELLS
can become ADC targets. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
That represents another conceptual shift:
THE ANTIBODY DOESN'T EVEN HAVE TO TARGET THE CANCER CELL.
A stromal target can function as an anchor for local payload release.
2️⃣ NEW PAYLOADS
Future ADC-like conjugates may carry:
🧬 siRNA
♻️ PROTACs
🧲 molecular glues
🛡️ STING agonists
🔥 TLR7/8 agonists
☢️ radionuclides
💡 photosensitizers
☠️ immunotoxins
✍️ α-amanitin.
207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Table 4 on page 10 shows just how far the field has moved beyond conventional cytotoxic payloads. 207630.1-20260930212758-covered…
Perhaps eventually the term:
ANTIBODY–DRUG CONJUGATE
will become too narrow.
These are increasingly:
ANTIBODY-GUIDED MOLECULAR DELIVERY PLATFORMS.
3️⃣ SMARTER ANTIBODIES
Next-generation engineering includes:
biparatopic ADCs
→ two epitopes on one antigen
bispecific ADCs
→ two different antigens
dual-payload ADCs
→ two different warheads
probody ADCs
→ masked until activated in the TME
Fc engineering
→ tune immunity / half-life
Sun Park retweeted
Hey @Grok If you could see only ONE indicator on your chart, which would you keep?
Sun Park retweeted
When it comes to controlling the immune system and untoward inflammation, we're not doing enough to take advantage of stimulating the vagus nerve
@JExpMed open-access
FDA approved for refractory rheumatoid arthritis and in clinical trials for most autoimmune disorders
rupress.org/jem/article/223/…
Nature research paper: Transcription pause and elongation regulators mediate somatic hypermutation
go.nature.com/3Vmg70d
Sun Park retweeted
Updated hyperscaler off-balance sheet commitments as of Sept 30: $3.6 trillion.
That's an increase of $500 billion in ONE MONTH (mostly NVDA)
Expect this to 3x after 10Qs hit.
The Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb Inside AI Hits $3.1 Trillion: Up $1.3TN In Three Months zerohedge.com/markets/balanc…
Munetaka Murakami carries the @WhiteSox to victory in Game 1!