@JeffFoglei
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Tweeting statistical notes about major sports betting events. Being a nit on twitter for more than a decade.
Austin, TX
Joined February 2012
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Jeff Fogle retweeted
The WNBA's league rating went up from about 106 to almost 111 in one year, a huge jump.
The biggest rise was actually on halfcourt fouls/FTs, adding about +1.0. Then HC layups, ~0.9, and 3s, ~0.7, with more 3s taken this year. Turnovers and rebounds are each up about 0.3.
Jeff Fogle retweeted
There were 20 TD catches by tight ends today for the most in any day in NFL history.
Jeff Fogle retweeted
My two weekly (two) underdogs finally swept after weeks of splitting. *NFL* stays in a groove
NFL Week 3: 7-2
NFL overall: 20-6
WNBA Net Points (ESPN's analytic) on defense (points added to team differential via defense)
Burton GS +29
Howard ATL +24
G. Williams GS +24
Betts WAS +22
Thornton GS +21
Gray ATL +18
Angel Reese was down at -3 (slightly hurt team differential), but named WNBA Defensive POY?
Even with her defensive rebounds and steals, she's not as strong as other elites in the full scope of what defenders do (rim protection, avoiding fouls, etc..). If you want to see the full league breakdown, here's the link
espnanalytics.com/wnba-net-p…
Jeff Fogle retweeted
My #1 QB is all class
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Let me get some things straight here.
I don't represent nor have affiliation with any poker, sportsbetting, or casino company. I don't care which ones succeed or fail. I have no dog in any of these fights.
I am 54 years old, and don't give a crap about "clout". I'm not looking to be any sort of influencer. My site and podcast do not make money, by design. I have turned down many site sponsorship opportunities, so I can remain fully unbiased.
I'm a poker player, sportsbettor, and casino gambler like you. I have a lot of knowledge and experience in those areas, and I've been around a long time. It helps me to see through a lot of the bullshit pushed by bad actors.
I've been scammed and ripped off several times, most famously by AP/UB in the 2000s. I was the very first one to call it out.
It pisses me off to see people in the gambling community get a raw deal, especially by companies or individuals we were told to trust.
If you are avoiding paying out withdrawals, I am going to call you out.
If you are cheating your customers, I am going to call you out.
If you are hiding bullshit/sneaky restrictions in your TOS, and attempt to point to them in order to gaslight your victims, I am going to call you out.
If you are intentionally hiding things so your customers fall into a trap, I'm going to call you out.
If you think you can stiff people because they aren't well known and don't have a big social media following, I'm going to call you out.
Why? Because someone should, and I'm volunteering to do it.
It's not personal. Treat your customers fairly, transparently, and with respect. Keep your word. Disclose anything they wouldn't otherwise expect.
And if you're an individual, don't scam or rip people off.
I also always look at both sides of things. Sometimes in these disputes, the customer is the one actually in the wrong. Sometimes they've been caught being shady themselves, and are falsely crying foul. I won't help those people. I value fairness and accuracy. If I'm taking up for someone's cause, it means I truly believe they've been wronged.
I'm not a saint, and I'm far from perfect. Some of you don't like me, and that's fine.
I've recovered a lot of money for people over the years. Some of it happens behind the scenes, and you never hear about it. Other times it's very public.
I'm not looking for plaudits here. I just want you to know that when I call out a company for alleged wrongdoing, it's not because I'm trying to get views, clicks, clout, or followers. And it's not because I'm trying to help their competition. I just want to see everyone treated fairly.
And if you've made it this far into my late night rant, thank you for reading.
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Playoff chances on the last day of the season
Astros: 83% chance
- Need a win OR a Rangers loss
Phillies: 79% chance
- Need a win OR a Dbacks loss
Dbacks: 21% chance
- Need a win AND a Phillies loss
Rangers: 17% chance
- Need a win AND an Astros loss
Jeff Fogle retweeted
6-1 day from @andrewssports 🤝
We'll be back on Friday at 6pm ET/3pm PT with Week 5 Best Bets!
Vegas bookmaker and man of the people @andrewssports with 7 College Football Best Bets for Week 4
Best of luck today!
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Been waiting all day to tweet this one. @OldTakesExposed
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Oklahoma and Texas A&M both being preseason top 10 should be the biggest argument for getting rid of preseason polls. No one knows anything.
How NFL Sharps are Betting Cowboys/Ravens and Other Late Sunday Action (9/27) figureitoutsportsbetting.sub… (Dallas/Baltimore is above the paywall, other late Sunday kickoffs below the paywall)
How NFL Sharps are Betting Week Three’s Early Sunday Action (9/27) figureitoutsportsbetting.sub… (a couple of games are free above the paywall...great time to sign up with MLB Playoffs starting this week...just $20 for a calendar month, or $75 for a calendar year.)
Jeff Fogle retweeted
My very broad brush strokes take would be that good QBs are positive force multipliers.
If the support structure around them isn't viable, they can't necessarily negate that problem, but they increase the value and effect of other good things in the offense.
So you're paying them for the catalyst effect they can have. You shouldn't pay them expecting them to turn chicken shit into chicken salad.
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Somehow convinced @propublica to put up $25,000 and let me advise @JakePearsonProP on the most irresponsible ways to gamble it. Went from betting $50 day to ripping thousands on microbets, tracking the offers that kept coming despite obvious signs of compulsive gambling
NEW: I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company’s “responsible gaming” safeguards.
Spoiler Alert: They invited me into the VIP program after just one week. Here’s how I yeeted $20K+ ripping riskier and risker bets 🧵
Jeff Fogle retweeted
An important regulatory test is that the operator possesses character, honesty, and integrity...
New: ProPublica’s Jake Pearson lost $10,000 mimicking the betting patterns of a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company’s “responsible gaming” safeguards. One week in, he was invited to become a VIP — and faced little pushback as he spiraled. propub.li/4dGHrwr
Jeff Fogle retweeted
Las Vegas Bookmaker Chris Andrews Line Moves & Analysis Week 4 College Football nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wGWjlWkO…