
@JeffDenningi
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Economist of Education, @UTAustin @TheLBJSchool @utexascoe
Joined June 2009
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Like many of you, I've been thinking about super capable AI and what the future looks like. Led me to this question.
Current AI is better than me at grading student quizzes. I still grade student quizzes for a variety of reasons. How many tasks will have this pattern in future?
Jeff Denning retweeted
We are hiring pre-docs! Please apply if you’re interested in applied econ research at Kellogg Strategy, including my work about innovation, science, and AI.
We are hiring Predoctoral Research Fellows at Northwestern Kellogg! @RyanReedHill @profbusse @ShengmaoCao
Join us to work on research in industrial organization, labor, organizations, and innovation. Great preparation for a PhD in economics!
Apply here: facultyrecruiting.northweste…
I've considered that thought experiment
Consider this thought experiment: "University X has seen graduation, retention rates increase after new adopting policy of giving all students As, regardless of how they perform -- and whether they even come to class."
Not far from reality in many cases.
calmatters.org/education/hig…
Now you have a cite for the oft conjectured "twfe is fine in most cases probably"
Please enjoy!
Writeup: dropbox.com/scl/fi/ago5vsi89…
Repo: github.com/peterdhull/twfe-r…
Planning to expand to other journals soon
Jeff Denning retweeted
We have a new analysis on the end of SAVE, the student debt repayment plan:
Bottom-line: *IF* everyone who is still eligible transitions to different IDR plan, we go back to pre-pandemic levels of IDR enrollment and payment burdens. But that's a big IF. If people don't...
Jeff Denning retweeted
In traditional mathematics (or "Math 1.0"), a breakthrough proof of a long-standing open conjecture generates a large amount of subsequent activity and excitement in the field. (1/15)
Jeff Denning retweeted
I’ve been thinking today about how LLM “proof solvers” compare to other recent ML tools in science like AlphaFold. I’ve seen a lot of very strong reactions today that I might label as a “first contact” attitude, and I don’t think I subscribe to it:
Jeff Denning retweeted
Unfortunately, I’m afraid this method involves a utopian level of optimism about the amount of homework kids are getting in many schools.
Replying to @mattyglesias
Just be a typical Asian parent:
- make sure your kid actually goes to school
- make sure they do their homework
- check their homework
- rinse and repeat, daily, for 12 years
Even a "median" student at a "failing" school will see results with this formula.
Jeff Denning retweeted
Imagine you're a kid growing up in 1910. You happen to live next door to a doctor. Are you more likely to become a doctor by 1940 than your friend Carl, who lives 5 doors down? Our new paper suggests that yes, by about 30%!
Did someone say airgap???
OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change
"But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI."
"So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar."
"You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient."
"There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors."
"One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate."
_________
Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
Jeff Denning retweeted
Now that I've had your attention w/a 4-letter tweet on cold🚿, let me tell you about a paper I worked on for the past 9yrs (!!) w/Chao and John, just accepted at @JPolEcon 🤩
My JMP showed that flex pay for teachers ⬆️avg average achievement. But is it good for ALL students? 1/n
Jeff Denning retweeted
The publishing rat race has gotten out of control and AI is making it worse.
I am officially putting a pause on publishing my papers in the Quarterly Journal of Economics and I call on all leading economists to do the same.



























