Jecy

stonk update: reasonably confident that stonk is bottomed. we're seeing a higher low, and then potentially a higher high even during a 48h period BTC closed hourlies below 80k and looks weak. stonk doesn't seem to care. i think people really leaning into data here are starting to position in strong eco plays/stonk nanocaps (i certainly am) stonk was showing signs of bottoming regardless of what happens externally, but i think the whole pump fun kimchi debacle may have took a large cohort of fence sitters and tipped them back toward stonk, which was already looking pretty good (flattening out just above its fair value gap). it didn't *need* these flows, but they're not gonna hurt. path dependency here for stonk is "BTC doesn't go dramatically lower". i think stonk has proven resilience to BTC weakness (bottoming oct 18, 1 week ago). -BTC down modestly probably sees stonk sideways -BTC sideways sees stonk drift higher -BTC up (at all) sees stonk probably sharply higher -BTC up big = stonk probably parabolic recovery, push to reclaim prev ATH faster than many expect i think the only thing that pushes stonk to new lows at this point is BTC nuking to the low-mid 70's alongside a marketwide catastrophe. i'm betting that this is unlikely. if it happens, i'm just going to hold/add. i started positioning in stonk eco smallcaps in addition to my core bags. for those coins, i'm wagering something like 10k in total, and looking to turn it into 500k by the time stonk puts in a new ATH. other than the "bigger coins", many "winning" stonk eco pairs are currently sitting between 5 and 6 figures, ie "free", and have a pathway to 20x within weeks, and still continue to look cheap, before going as high as 100x or more, from here. i cringe putting "100x!!" on a coin - i can't predict that, but that's what i'm targeting here, and want to be candid about that. it might takes weeks-months, or it might not happen at all. that said, upside on stonk and stonk eco feels similar to me as bonk did in nov 2023 - where i, with almost a feeling of madness, look around thinking "is nobody else seeing this??" obviously doesn't need to be said, but the risk is high (i'm comfortable risking 100%), but the upside feels comically asymmetric my core positions on stonk: -zcat (yields ZEC) (currently 46m mcap) -sndk (sand kitten) (yields sandisk stock) (currently 1.7m mcap) -knots (yields stonk) (currently 4.4m mcap) my currently-held nanocaps i think can 100x: -ghostcat (yields aave) (currently 160k mcap) -stink (yields fartcoin) (currently 65k mcap) -marine (yields link) (currently 260k mcap) -knower (buyback + burn mechanism from treasury) (currently 196k mcap) -feelsgood (yields pepe) (currently 809k mcap) -wifout (yields wif) (currently 119k mcap) -something (yields SPX) (currently 660k mcap) stuff i'm circling on fomo: -bag (first/biggest zcat stonk fun community mechanism token, yields zcat) -tacz (yield zcat) -allinu (yields draftkings stock. cracked community) -nearkat (yields near) as always, all eyes on BTC to see how this develops through the midterms and beyond, but i feel more uncomfortable being sidelined than allocated at this juncture. i included the current mcaps of the above tokens, and look forward to, for better or worse, updating this weekly or so. i hope to look back on these, alongside other people active in the space during this boring/depressing time, and have a big chuckle at how cheap stuff currently is. yours, long, strong, throw some sand in my thong, doug funnie

update:

i don't own it, but i think allinu bounces back aggressively and flips SI