Content and analysis at @PoolGenius and @TeamRankings. Otherwise busy with four kids.
Blue Springs, MO
Joined August 2009
- Tweets30.3K
- Following1.2K
- Followers7.4K
- Likes898
How does this happen? Organizational failures on a massive scale here.
That isn't even the first Matthew Stafford 18-16 game. It's the 3rd one he's been a part of.
This one.
18-16 win for Detroit over Green Bay in 2015.
18-16 loss for Detroit to Baltimore in 2013. (The Justin Tucker 61-yard game winner kick.)
I just entered several in the Wave Revival, and if you want to do the same, you can use our Splash Pick Assignment tool to quickly enter a bunch of picks poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
if you got knocked out of your Survivor contest, and are ready to get back up, Splash has your back.
$1 million guaranteed. $25 per entry. Currently nearly $600k of overlay!
If interested in bulk entering, email [email protected] for offers.
Contest link below
Jason Lisk retweeted
💦 Our Splash World Championship entry valuation tool is LIVE for Week 6!
GetNickWright (aka @getnickwright) has the 3rd most valuable entry entering the week 👀
🔗 See Full List: poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Who is the best Week 6 Survivor pick?
43%LA Rams (vs. ARI)
13%New England (vs. NYJ)
27%Indianapolis (vs. TEN)
17%Kansas City (vs. LAC)
63 votes • Final resultsThe Commanders are now responsible for two of the biggest “Wait, I’m Alive! … NOPE” rug pulls in survivor history between this and the 2024 game against the Cowboys with the 86-yard bomb to McLaurin followed by the missed XP.
Across all contests I am in where I can see pick rates on Dallas, the 38% in the World Championship was THE LOWEST of any pool. Median was 45% and several went over 50%, including those with higher concentrations of single entries.
The Dallas loss had the biggest impact on single entries remaining, with over 55% breaking to Dallas in the Splash Survivor World Championship.
Plus, a subset of the largest portfolios that went heavy Dallas and paid the price.
2) Circa's holiday pick week, and Dallas at home on Thanksgiving, should theoretically cause more to save them for that week because of contest dynamics, not present in Splash, and spread ownership out.
But
Let's talk about how this might relate to #circasurvivor numbers on Dallas, which we don't know yet.
1) Splash has generally run about 7-8% lower than Circa on the most popular picks so far (pointing to Dallas up)
But
Jason Lisk retweeted
🚨 NEW: Survivor Entry Values
What is a live Survivor entry actually worth?
Our new Entry Values tool simulates the rest of the season and the entire pool thousands of times to estimate:
• Fair value
• Chance to win
• Typical payout if it wins
• Key teams remaining
• Toughest weeks ahead
• Best paths for survival and expected value
Now available for Circa Survivor and the Splash Survivor World Championship
Circa:
🔗 poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Splash:
🔗 poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Jason Lisk retweeted
When we look at back at the Circa winner entries, which group of teams will appear on the most winners for the Week 5 pick?
47%Dallas Cowboys
16%Bengals, Lions, or Jags
37%Texans + All Others
135 votes • Final results Jason Lisk retweeted
I don't workpost a ton, but I really like the new Splash/Circa leaderboards that @JasonLisk & I made.
Splash: poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Circa: poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
I had a ton of fun w/ the analysis, and it was challenge to get good enough sims to run in a short enough time.
It’s been a wild start through just four weeks in the NFL. We have already had:
1) a team score 59 points in a game
2) a team gain 27 more first downs and 335 more yards than an opponent
3 a team win 3 games with 3 different starting QBs
How often different types of Splash World Championship entries picked Arizona:
Previously used at least one bottom-12 future value (FV) team to advance (primarily NYJ/CAR/NYG): 6.8%
Hadn't used a bottom-12 FV team, but used LV or PIT in Week 1: 2.3%
All other entries: 1.7%